Very long but excellent read...
The threat of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic Revolutionary Movement
11/10/2004 12:38
On October 29, 2004, al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden released a new videotape, revealing the first images of the leader in more than a year. The video offered proof that bin Laden is alive and healthy with access to modern technology. The resurgence of Osama bin Laden emphasizes the threat still posed by Islamic revolutionaries to the United States and its interests.
Bin Laden Applauds U.S. Response to September 11 Attacks
Bin Laden is undeterred by the Bush administration's response to the September 11 attacks on the United States. Washington's destruction of the Taliban government in Afghanistan and its increased influence in the Middle East gained through the invasion and occupation of Iraq have not, according to bin Laden, adversely affected al-Qaeda in any significant manner. In fact, bin Laden's October 2004 video quoted him as saying that the results of the September 11 attacks -- results that include the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, in addition to U.S. attacks on Islamic revolutionaries worldwide -- have been "positive and enormous, and have, by all standards, exceeded all expectations."
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Conclusion
The threat to U.S. interests posed by Osama bin Laden, the al-Qaeda network, and the Islamic revolutionary movement as a whole is a reaction to U.S. foreign policy in the Muslim world. The U.S. has pursued relatively static interests in the Middle East for decades, interests that are central pillars in America's present status as a superpower. These interests are now clashing with the aspirations of the Islamic revolutionary movement, which seeks to resist U.S. policies in the Muslim world that are perceived as discriminatory to Muslims, whether as an intentional or unintentional result of U.S. policies.
Islamic revolutionaries such as Osama bin Laden are well aware that the United States cannot be defeated militarily. Their goal, then, is to effect political change inside the United States in order to defeat the country's will to sustain its involvement in the Muslim world. The persistent attacks on U.S. interests, culminating in the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, are intended to bring about this change of policy.
With the support of the American people, the Bush administration has resisted these attacks, and has amplified the very policies that have caused so much angst among Muslims. If the Bush administration is unsuccessful in its interventions of Afghanistan and Iraq, it will fail to marginalize the Islamic revolutionary movement and will find itself in a poor strategic position when faced with popular Islamic revolutionaries utilizing the military tactic of terrorism to achieve their political ends. Overstretched and exhausted, Washington could be forced to retreat back to its core and inadvertently deliver on many of al-Qaeda's demands.
Therefore, it is critical for the United States to rebuild Afghanistan and Iraq in a manner that wins the support of its people and helps to boost the United States' image in the Muslim world. By failing to stabilize Afghanistan and Iraq, and if it is unable to alter the perception of itself favorably, the Islamic revolutionary movement will grow and become a greater threat to the U.S. homeland and its interests abroad. Unfortunately, Washington's ability to stabilize Afghanistan and Iraq may prove impossible, bringing the instability of these two peripheral countries to the core of the United States.
Erich Marquardt
http://english.pravda.ru/world/20/91/368/14561_.html