From and Nena:
IntelCenter
Intelligence Note
OBL Message Attack Correlation - 67 Days
8 Nov. 2004
POC: info@intelcenter.com
(http://www.intelcenter.com)
If during the past nearly three years (34 months) you said an al-Qaeda attack would occur within 67 days every time an Osama bin Laden audio tape or video was released, you would have been correct 80% of the time or eight out of the last 10 times messages were released.
The statistical backing for this and additional details will appear in v1.1 of the "Osama bin Laden Message Analysis & Threat Assessment" report, which is scheduled to be released within 12 hours.
Just for argument sake...
What if OBL was running out of resourse to attack the UK, US, etc...Knowing that the US is waiting for an attack after his latest video, would the video do more harm since everyone would be anticipateing an attack that may never happen. Since the 2/10 times nothing happened, we could also assumbe that OBL is loosing resourse to do his dredfull deeds. At this point in the game OBL's video may be all he has to attack the US at this time.
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