[Edit35]

If there are 250,000 provisional ballots they would need 80% of those to break even.

By definition, provisional ballots are not necessarily good votes.

Each provisional ballot must be checked. If that person is not registered, or whatever, the vote does not even count.

Whatever is left, those votes would likely be evenly divided between Bush and Kerry.

Simply put, this is a no-win suicide mission for Kerry in Ohio.

[Strategerist]

Fox stated that the Reps said that only about 7-20% of Ohio Provisional ballots end up even being counted.