Posted on 11/02/2004 1:23:17 PM PST by StopDemocratsDotCom
ELECTION PREDICTIONS
Popular Vote:
Bush: 51% Kerry: 49%
Electoral College: Bush: 309 Kerry: 229
House: GOP +4
Senate: GOP +3
Alabama: Bush Win President Bush will win in a landslide. President: Bush: 60% - Kerry: 39% Senate: Incumbent Richard Shelby (R) will win in a landslide
Alaska: Bush Win President Bush will win in a landslide. President: Bush: 57% - Kerry: 42% Senate: Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) will lose to Tony Knowles (D) because the anti- Frank Murkowski vote is too strong. Lisa is a good candidate brought down by her father. Knowles: 51% - Murkowski - 47%
Arizona: Bush Win President Bush will win by a bigger than expected margin. President: Bush: 54% - Kerry: 45% Senate: McCain will win in a landslide
Arkansas: Bush Win This is a Republican state and it will stay that way, but Bush’s margin will be smaller than 4 years ago. Bubba helped Kerry a little, but not enough. President: Bush: 53% - Kerry: 46% Senate: Incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D) will win re-election
California: Kerry Win This state is becoming more and more Democratic, you can all thank former Republican Governor Pete Wilson for that. The President will lose by less than expected President: Kerry: 53 Bush: 45 Liberal darling Barbara Boxer (D) will once again defeat a weak Republican candidate, former Secretary of State Bill Jones (R) Senate: Boxer: 57%, Jones: 43%
Colorado: Bush win This state looked like it might be a battleground state but it looks like this state will come home to the GOP and Bush, but by a small margin. The electoral split referendum will lose badly. President: Bush: 53%, Kerry: 46% Senate: This was a very competitive race, but we are going to give the edge to Salazar. He will lose this election by a hair because some voters have questions about his experience. Salazar: 52, Coors: 48%
Connecticut: Kerry win Kerry will win this typically reliable Democratic state. President: Kerry: 55%, Bush: 43% Senate: US Senator Chris Dodd (D) will win in a landslide.
Delaware: Kerry win by less than impressive margin. Kerry will carry this state but by not as big of a margin as Gore did in 2000. President: Kerry: 53%, Bush: 46% Governor: Governor Ruth Ann Minner (D) will win by a small margin.
Florida: Bush win by descent margin. The Bushies will win the battle for the Sunshine State thanks in part to strong support by Cuban Americans (which is as strong as it was in 2000 and not weaker like the media is claiming), Hispanic conservatives, Catholics, Conservative Jews, and a trend that has favored Republicans in the past few elections. Republican Senate candidate Mel Martinez may very well be the person that helps Bush carry this state. President: Bush: 51%, Kerry: 48% Senate: Strong Hispanic support (the “he’s one of us” factor) and some lingering allegations about Betty Castor’s actions protecting a professor with Terrorist ties at the University of South Florida while she served as President at the time will make or break this race for her. Martinez (R): 51% - Castor (D): 49%
Georgia: Bush win This is a Republican state and it will stay that way. President: Bush: 55%, Kerry: 44% Congressman Johnny Isakson (R) will easily defeat Congresswoman Denise Majette (D). Isakson (R): 58%, Majette (D): 42%
Hawaii: Kerry win by small margin This will be the surpise of this election, the fact this state was even mentioned in this election, but Bush’s strong performance here won’t carry him to victory as many predict. President: Kerry 52%, Bush: 47% Senate: Incumbent Dan Inouye (D) will win re-election despite a promising Republican challenge from former CNN anchor Dalton Tanonaka.
Idaho: Bush win Bush will win this state in a landslide President: Bush: 65%, Kerry: 35%
Ilinois: Kerry win Another Democratic state combined with the fact Democratic superstar Barak Obama (D) will wipe the floor with Alan Keyes will make this a safe Kerry state. President: Kerry: 55%, Bush: 45% Senate: see above, Obama will win with 70% of the vote.
Indiana: Bush win This is a safe Republican state Bush: 59%, Kerry: 41% Senate: Incumbent Evan Bayh (D) will easily win another term Governor: Mitch Daniels (D) will win by a comfortable margin against the incumbent Joe Kernan (D) who has been a horrible governor.
Iowa: Bush by a hair This is one of those blue states that will turn red, by a hair. President: Bush 49%, Kerry: 48% Senate: Incumbent Chuck Grassley (R) will cruise to victory.
Kansas: Bush win Dole country will stay in the GOP column. President: Bush: 65%, Kerry: 35% Senate: Brownback (R) in a landslide.
Kentucky: Bush win This is another GOP stronghold that will stay that way. Bush: 58%, Kerry: 42% Jim Bunning (R) did and said a lot of stupid things that made this race a bit competitive at the end, like claiming his Democratic challenger looked like one of Saddam’s sons and using a teleprompter to read his final statement in one of the debates. Kentucky is too conservative for Mongiardo and will forgive Bunning for his shortcomings. Senate: Bunning: 55%, Mongiardo: 45%
Louisiana: Bush Win This is a Republican state, Bush easily wins. President: Bush: 56%, Kerry: 44% Republican Congressman David Vitter (R) is headed for a runoff with Congressman Chris John (D). Vitter will win 48% of the vote.
Maine: Kerry win Maine will go for Kerry, despite the fact it was seen as a bit competitive a few weeks ago and Bush’s showing against Gore in 2000 was pretty strong. President: Kerry 51%, Bush 45%
Maryland: Kerry Win Maryland won’t be doing any flip flops this year, it’s going for Kerry. President: Kerry: 55%, Bush: 44%
Massachusetts: Kerry win President: Kerry’s home state of Taxachusetts will make him proud. President: Kerry: 65%, Bush: 35%
Michigan: Kerry win President: Once again Michigan will show the Union vote and the Michael Moore vote will put this battleground state in the Democratic column. President: Kerry: 52%, Bush: 47%
Minnesota: Kerry win President: This state looked competitive for a few weeks but it looks like the traditional Democratic tendencies of the people of this state will put it in Kerry’s column. President: Kerry: 51%, Bush: 47%
Mississippi: Bush Win This is a GOP Stronghold, Bush will easily win President: Bush: 60%, Kerry: 40%
Missouri: Bush Win This state was ground zero in 2000, but in 2004 it will be Bush country. President: Bush: 54%, Kerry: 45% Senate: US Senator Kit Bond (R) will win re-election by wide margin Governor: Secretary of State Matt Blunt (R) will win by a healthy margin
Montana: Bush Win This is another solid Bush state President: Bush: 65%, Kerry: 35% Governor: Brian Schweitzer (D) will win the governor’s mansion in this very conservative state.
Nebraska: Bush Win Yet another Bush state Bush will easily win. President: Bush: 63%, Kerry: 37%
Nevada: Bush Win Bush will win this battleground state by a comfortable margin. President: Bush: 50%, Kerry: 45% Senate: Senate Minority Whip Harry Reid (D) will easily win
New Hampshire: Kerry win..by a hair This is the only state that went for Bush in 2000 that we believe will go for Kerry. The fact that Kerry is from New England and he is the “regional” candidate may be what gives him the edge. President: Kerry: 49%, Bush: 48%
New Jersey: Kerry Win There was some real hope that Bush might just win New Jersey a few weeks ago but it looks like in the past few days New Jersey has slowly moved to the Kerry column..but Bush will have a strong showing thanks in part to his leadership after 9/11. President: Kerry: 50% , Bush: 45%
New Mexico: Bush Win..by a hair Bush will win this battleground state that he lost by a little over 300 votes in 2000. President: Bush: 50%, Kerry: 49%
New York: Kerry Win New York is really a political dissapoinment. After everything the President did for this state after 9/11 you would expect a Bush victory or a small margin of victory for Kerry, but it looks like Kerry will win in a landslide. President: 57%, Bush: 39% Senate: Incumbent Chuck Schumer (D) will win re-election by a landslide margin
North Carolina: Bush Win Local boy John Edwards was suppose to carry this state for John Kerry but it looks like this Carolina is staying in the GOP column. President: Bush: 54%, Kerry: 45% Senate: Former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) lost to Elizabeth Dole 2 years ago and it looks like he will lose again. In the past 2 weeks Congressman Richard Burr (R) has really had the momentum which we think will carry him to victory. The Clinton bogeyman will once again drag Bowles to another concession speech. Governor: Incumbent Mike Easley (D) will easily win re-election
North Dakota: Bush Win This state is a sure Bush win. President: Bush: 60%, Kerry: 40% Governor/Senate: Incumbent Governor John Hoeven (R) and US Senator Byron Dorgan (D) will easily win re-election
Ohio: Bush Win…By a whisker The last few hours are showing a bit of momentum for Bush in this state. The strong GOTV operation put on by the GOP this year, the predicted bad weather in many parts of the state, the Conservatives that stayed home because of the DUI charge coming out for Bush and against the gay ammendment will carry this state for Bush…but barely President: Bush: 50%, Kerry: 49% Senate: Incumbent George Voinovich (R) will win another term in a landslide
Oklahoma: Bush Win Solid Bush state will go big for the President. President: Bush: 64%, Kerry: 34% Senate: This is another Senate race that has been very competitive between Congressman Brad Carson (D) and Former Congressman Tom Coburn (R). The momentum and the upward trend is with Tom Coburn and we believe he will eke out a victory. Carson: 51%, Coburn: 49%
Oregon: Kerry Win Kerry will win this state that looked like Bush would be competitive in earlier in the race. Preaident: Kerry: 50%, Bush: 44% Senate: Incumbent Ron Wyden (D) will easily win re-election
Pennsylvania: Bush barely wins This is one of the big Swing states that went to Gore in 2000. We believe that Bush will barely carry this state thanks to a surge among religious Consersatives, Catholics, and Rural voters. President: Bush: 50%, Kerry: 49% After a hard fought primary fight, Arlen Spector (R) will win re-election against Congressman Jim Hoeffel (D) Senate: Spector (R): 53% Hoeffel (D): 35%
Rhode Island: Kerry Win This is a reliable Democratic State Kerry will easily carry. President: Kerry: 56, Bush: 43%
South Carolina: Bush Win This state will strongly go for Bush President: Bush: 55%, Kerry: 42% Senate: Congressman Jim DeMint (R) will defeat State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum (D) by a comfortable margin.
South Dakota: Bush Win This is a safe Bush state he will easily win. Senate: Incumbent Senate minority leader Tom Daschle (D) is in a virtually tied race with former Congressman John Thune (R) who barely lost (and some say voter fraud by Indian Americans was the reason for his VERY close defeat) against Senator Tim Johnson (D) two years ago. Senate: 50%, Daschle: 50% (toss-up)
Tennessee: Bush win This 2000 battleground state, like Missouri, will go strong for Bush. President: Bush: 56%, Kerry: 43%
Texas: Bush Country Bush’s home state will go big for the man from Crawford. President: Bush 65%,
Utah: Bush win This is a big Bush state he will win. President: Bush: 70% Kerry: 29% Governor: Jon Hunstman Jr. (R) will beat Former law school dean Scott Matheson Jr. (D) by a wide margin.
Vermont: Kerry win This is as liberal as it gets. Ironically, this used to be one of the solid Republican states many many years ago. President: Kerry: 56%, Bush: 42% Governor: Incumbent Jim Douglas (R) will easily win re-election against Burlington Mayor Peter Clavelle (D)
Virginia: Bush win The Kerry camp had hoped they could peel off this red state from the president but these few past weeks have shown a movement back to Bush. President: Bush 52%, Kerry: 48%
Washington: Kerry Win Washington is like Maine..polls always show it can be competitive but it always seems to fall into the (D) column. President: Kerry 52%, Bush: 47% Senate: Incumbent Patty Murray (D) will easily win against Congressman George Nethercutt (R) We think State Senator Dino Rossi (R) will win against Attorney General Christine Gregoire (D) who is a weak candidate in an upset. Governor: Rossi: 51%, Gregoire: 49%
West Virginia: Bush Win It looks like Bush will once again carry this state that he won in 2000 and shocked the political establishment. He has had a consistent lead for the past few weeks. President: Bush: 50%, Kerry: 45% Governor: Secretary of State Joe Manchin (D) will win over developer Monty Warner (R) by a healthy margin.
Wisconsin: Bush Win by a hair This state is a tossup but we are giving it to Bush because he is polling better than he did in 2000 and we think he can pull it off. President: Bush: 50%, Kerry: 49% Senate: Incumbent Russ Feingold (D) will win re-election by a healthy margin
Wyoming: Bush Win This is Bush/Cheney country President: Bush: 70%, Kerry: 29%
This looks right, except for PA, which appears to be going Kerry strongly, based largely on voter fraud.
I'll take it!
ITS NOT TRENDING TOWARDS KERRY! POLLS CAN BE MANIPULATED TO SAY ANYTHING. THIS IS A HIT JOB, EVERYONE, TO DISCOURAGE US AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS JUDGING BY ALL THE CRYING ON HERE. COME ON PEOPLE! WE ARENT LIBERALS! THIS FIGHT IS FAR FROM OVER! 4 MORE YEARS!
I pray you are right.
Rendell is proving himself to be the Richard Daly of the east coast.
I will too....and guys, extra prayers all day will definitely help our cause...
You have KY colored Kerry Blue.
Not to mention the guy on The Radio Factor today...who said he voted for Kerry twice in Pittsburgh.
Apparently the old lady at the polls said to him when he complained of an issue with the electronic voting machine..."oh just vote again"
bump
I just saw a crawler in CNN Headline News that attributed the quote "It's not over yet" to President Bush. I'm worried that this statement indicates their internal polls suggest a Kerry victory. This afternoon, I have not heard any Bush supporter who sounds confident that Bush will win even by a narrow margin. They explain why the early exit polls might not be an accurate indication of final results, but the talk seems to have shifted already from predicting a Bush victory to talking about what a Kerry presidency might mean and talking up the fact that Republicans will definitely not lose seats in the House and Senate.
I disagree. I've heard that things still look good for W from some Ohio GOP insiders.
I sure hope so. In the words of Gordon Liddy, the thought of a president Kerry "makes me want to puke". Any word on Florida insider polling?
You guys are really going nuts. The exit polls don't mean anything. The only true count will come when the polls close. The exit poll I saw that gave an edge to Kerry in Florida was composed of 59% women, which says a lot. If he only showed a point up with that many women then he is indeed in trouble. Remember, in the actual count of votes in florida in 2000, Gore was ahead for most of the race, that is because the counties that voted first were Gore counties and the ones in the panhandle were for Bush and the same thing applies this year. WAIT AND SEE and quit shouting dooms day...
You guys are really going nuts. The exit polls don't mean anything. The only true count will come when the polls close. The exit poll I saw that gave an edge to Kerry in Florida was composed of 59% women, which says a lot. If he only showed a point up with that many women then he is indeed in trouble. Remember, in the actual count of votes in florida in 2000, Gore was ahead for most of the race, that is because the counties that voted first were Gore counties and the ones in the panhandle were for Bush and the same thing applies this year. WAIT AND SEE and quit shouting dooms day...
But why is the stock market down and Tradesports now showing Bush at 35?
Say what???
Wonder if the dead Indians native Americans will save Daschle again?
Bush WILL win. I haven't seen any talk they're giving up - and neither should GOP voters. The best thing every one can do is GOTV. Don't let the Democrats and their MSM friends play mind games to depress our turnout.
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