U.S. stocks jarred by early call favoring Kerry

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks fell from their highs Tuesday amid reports that John Kerry is putting in a strong early showing at the polls.

"The only thing I can see is that the Drudge Report shows the preliminary exit polls showing Kerry within striking distance," said Jay Suskind, director of trading of Ryan, Beck & Co.

Miller Tabak equity strategist Peter Boockvar said the fall was on nothing in particular, but also mentioned the Drudge Report showing that Kerry was running more competitively than initially thought.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) was last up 12 points at 10,067, paring early gains which saw the benchmark index climb as high as 10,132.99.

Within the Dow, Verizon (NYSE:VZ - News) was a notable gainer, up 1.6 percent, after the telecom operator and Nextel Communications (NasdaqNM:NXTL - News) agreed to resolve their legal disputes. Nextel shares were up 4 percent.

On a negative note, Merck (NYSE:MRK - News) shares hit an 8 1/2 year low on concern over its exposure to lawsuits following a media report suggesting it downplayed the health risks of its recently-withdrawn Vioxx arthritis drug.

The stock was last down 4.3 percent. Since it pulled Vioxx off the market on September 30, Merck shares have lost 40 percent of their value.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) was last up 7 points, at 1,987, after climbing above 2,000 for the first time in four months earlier in the session.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (CBOE:^SPX - News) climbed 2.60 points to 1,133.14.

Today's gains reflect some relief that the U.S presidential election is nearly over.

"There is election exhaustion," said John Caldwell, investment strategist at McDonald Financial Group. "If we know who is the president-elect tomorrow morning, this market has some underlying strength because the fundamentals have been solid.

"The economic data has been good but not spectacular, but can support moderately higher stock prices."

Over at Cantor Fitzgerald, U.S. Market Strategist Marc Pado offered similar sentiment.

"Most investors just want to see this election decided tonight," said Pado. "There is a fear that the market will see selling if it looks like we are headed into the courts for a decision."

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, November is the best month for stocks when incumbent presidents are ousted and second worst when they win.

On the data front, layoff announcements fell 5.6 percent in October, outplacement firm Challenger Grey & Christmas said in its monthly survey.

Despite the decline, layoffs remained above 100,000 for the second straight month, for the first time since January-February 2003.

"The job market appears to be stuck in the mud. Every time it looks as if things are going to rebound for the nation's workers, a series of reports deflates the optimism," said John Challenger, chairman of the firm, said in a statement. Oil holds at one-month lows

Crude futures hovered around $50 a barrel as traders mulled the implications of the U.S presidential election on the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while awaiting fresh weekly domestic inventories data due out Wednesday.

Crude for December delivery was last down 8 cents at $50.05 a barrel in morning trading in New York after sliding more than 3 percent Monday to close at a one-month low.

The dollar edged up against the euro and was steady against the yen, although movements were limited as currency traders, like their counterparts in other markets, refrained from taking positions ahead of the election.

Gold futures closed under $421 an ounce for the first time in two weeks as traders awaited the outcome of the presidential election and its effect on trading in the U.S. dollar.

On the bond market, Treasurys traded lower. The 10-year benchmark note was off 2/32 at 101 10/32. Its yield (CBOE:^TNX - News) stood at 4.09 percent.

Turning back to the broader market, advancers outpaced decliners by more than 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, and by an 18 to 11 score on the Nasdaq.

Volume was 927 million on the Big Board, and 1.1 billion on the Nasdaq. Tuesday November 2, 1:14 pm MT

Excuse me but this piece is BS!

The reason the Market dropped off this a.m. was because of the Challenger jobs report. Employers plan to cut another 100K jobs. It had nothing to do with the election.

Job cut plans top 100,000 -- again

Challenger survey finds worst two months of job cut announcements since early 2003.
November 2, 2004: 3:22 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Employers announced plans to cut more than 100,000 jobs again in October, capping the worst two months for layoffs since early 2003, an executive search and job placement firm said Tuesday.

October job cut plans actually slipped a bit to 101,840 jobs from 107,863 in September, according to a survey by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The last time announced job cuts topped 100,000 for two straight months was January and February 2003.

"The job market appears to be stuck in the mud. Every time it looks as if things are going to rebound for the nation's workers, a series of reports deflates the optimism," said CEO John Challenger in a statement.

But one economist said that the increase in layoffs is a seasonal issue, and that this report shows that the job market is improving more than it appears at first blush.

"Layoffs always are higher late in the year," said Robert Brusca of FAO Economics, who has taken a somewhat bearish view of the labor market reports. "All (the layoff report numbers) suggest that we are still improving compared to last year and there is little real evidence of slippage this month. The slippage was from August to September, but September to October is good number."

The survey puts the total announced job cuts at 826,160 for the first 10 months of the year. That puts it within reach of the 1 million job cut threshold for the fourth straight year. Before 2001 the largest number of job cuts ever announced was 677,795 in 1998.

But the latest job cut announcements are far below what was seen in October 2003, as well as the first ten months of 2003. There were 171,874 job cut announcements in October 2003, bringing the 10-month total last year to 1,043,954.

The survey found telecommunications with the most job cut announcements, with 16,664 jobs in the sector. It's the third straight month the sector has seen rising layoff announcements. Other sectors with the biggest cuts included health care, industrial goods and financial services.

It would take job cuts of 86,920 the last two months of the year to reach the 1 million mark, slightly above the pace of the first 10 months of the year but well below the pace of the last couple of months. Challenger said so far evidence suggests the outlook does not look good heading into the end of the year.

"Two consecutive months of 100,000-plus job cuts does not convey a sense of confidence about future business conditions," he said. "The fact that the number of help wanted ads across the country continues to fall further suggests a grim outlook on business conditions."

The pace of job creation has been a hotly-debated issue in this year's presidential election.

Democratic candidate John Kerry has repeatedly pointed out that President Bush is the first president since the Great Depression to see a drop in overall employment during his term, while the president argues that the economy is now back on track, adding 1.7 million jobs the last 12 months.

Employers posted stronger-than-expected job gains for three months this spring, starting in March. But since then employment numbers have come in weaker than expected. The October employment report is due out Nov. 5.

And here is the link.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/02/news/economy/jobless_challenger/index.htm

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STUPID ME. When I awoke this morning I thought this would be the first day the Left Stream Media would stop trying to influence this election.