Posted on 11/02/2004 12:08:06 PM PST by njsketch
This whole mass insanity over skewed leaks of exit polls is truly amazing. Chill, people.
In the most recent tracking poll, released this October 14th, Mr. Bush and Senator Kerry are tied at 45%. The gender gap has shrunk significantly since the last election, Mr. Bush is leading among men 5 by points (48% to 43%), while Mr. Kerry is leading among women by a 3-point margin (47% to 44%). This is a significant narrowing of the gender gap from the previous year. Since tracking began, neither candidate has been able to achieve a double-digit lead among either men or women. Mr. Bush’s lead among men has ranged from 3 to 7 points, while Mr. Kerry’s lead among women has been slightly more volatile, swinging from as low as 2 points, to as high as 9 points.From another site, women were 52% of the voters in 2000.
In attempting to normalize this, women were oversampled 7% and men were undersampled 7%.
Given that men are ~5% more likely to vote for Bush and women are ~5% more likely to vote for Kerry, we're roughly talking about a 1.4% voting skew from one candidate to another.
Ergo, add +1.4% to the Bush column and subtract 1.4% from the Kerry column.
The result put all those states losing by 3% into a tie.
That being said, EARLY POLLING IS RIDICULOUSLY BAD
The Associated Press! LOL
Why is that?
Republicans are not sheeple who hunch over their computers all day chewing fingernails.
Hasn't anyone noticed that the exit polls from 2000 that Drudge is posting now ALL overestimated Gore's final numbers?
From exit polls to results, Bush got a 3 point Fla bounce, 9 point Colorado bounce, and a 10 point Arizona bounce.
"Exit polls are worthless. Just ask Mystery Pollster. Also, they were wrong in 2000 and 2002. However, for what it’s worth, here’s what the Bush campaign is thinking:
I’m told that pollsters close to the Bush campaign think that Bush is up in Florida and New Hampshire, down in Wisconsin, even in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and “doing well” in Ohio. And they don’t think that the exit-poll numbers on NRO about Ohio add up. UPDATE: Drudge’s much-ballyhooed numbers, showing Kerry with a slight lead, used a 59-41 Female-Male sample. If you believe those numbers, there’s a bridge I’d like to sell you.
Also, someone in a position to know says:
Early exits in 2000 had Colorado +0, we won by 9. NC dead heat, we won by 12. Florida -3, we won by 537 votes.
The weight of the evidence shows late deciders broke for us.
And guys up late watching Monday night football didn't have time to vote this morning on their way to work. They come in late afternoon and early evening.
Something to think about as the evening goes on. www.mydd.com reporting turnout not results. In Ohio, Pa, And Fl turnout in Gore precincts is up from 2000 and outperforming Bush precinct today by 6 to 10 %. Some can be explained by work hours etc, but it especially mentions black and hispanic precincts as being showing significant increases in turnout over 2000. Interesting since conventional wisdom had Kerry not generating that kind of turnout in minority communities.
Honestly, I don't care if they are posted or not, because I know they are a bunch of crap. But your negative posts of late are more irritating to me then these exit poll postings. Your posts are not helping the situation you are so fearful of happening.
Hey crosshighwayman, I just want to be clear on this.....I did not post the above statement. I was quoting "faithincowboys", who for whatever reason likes to wring her hands.
Actually, it's something called the "National Election Pool" - made up of a consortium of ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox, and NBC. I believe, however, it is being spearheaded by AP this year on a rotating basis.
It's basically the new corrupt exit polling propagandist, replaceing the old corrupt exit polling propagandist, the Voter News Service (VNS).
Regardless, early exit polling is crap.
I believe that the strongest statement that we can legitimately draw is that
(1) since men have in the past more strongly supported Republicans than women and
(2) we can expect each to actually vote in roughly equal numbers as they have in the past,
that a 1 point lead with an imbalance of 59-41 is not a lead, and may well indicate that Senator Kerry actually trails.
Further than that statement, I am reluctant to say more and to apply any figures from the previous election since the current race is not all that similar to the previous race. Last time, neither candidate was a presidential incumbent; this time, the Democratic candidate is far more to the left than even Vice President Gore; and finally, we are indeed in the post-911 period.
Finally, these numbers are very, very preliminary and cannot be considered indicative. Just as you might flip a coin 1000 times and easily see the first 20 flips consist of 15 heads and 5 tails, that doesn't indicate that you will see 750 heads and 250 tails (and in fact, you are quite unlikely to see such a ratio with an honest coin after 1000 flips.)
Instead, I believe that the political factors in this race, not any technical ones, give us great hope of a very strong vote in the Electoral College.
Hmmmm...I guess that would be me. Of course, I'm a rabid Republican, homeschooling mom who took her kids to the polling place to watch her vote for GWB. But, if you want to call me a bon-bon mom and Oprah fan, feel free. :-)
Thanks! In other words, SSDD. I won't pay it any mind :)
Excellent.
To anyone --
I'm confused. Is there only ONE set of exit polling numbers coming out? Are all the various news outlets pooling their resources?
Republicans are doing separate exit polling from the media. Dems are probably doing their own as well, and keeping darn quiet about it.
Drudge took down the sampling ratio and just has the numbers.
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