NEVER FORGET!!!
Posted on 11/01/2004 5:05:06 PM PST by LS
WORD FROM OBI-WAN KENOBI [11/01 07:25 PM]
After a busy day, had a chance to talk with Obi Wan Kenobi, the longtime GOP operative who is rapidly becoming a favorite of Kerry Spot readers.
The very short version: Can Kerry win this?
Obi Wan: I don’t see it… unless there is a sudden and big break to Kerry tonight.
The longer version:
While I (Jim) initially thought the bin Laden tape meant a Bush landslide, Obi Wan had a doubt or two. Not that the tape would hurt Bush, but that it might freeze things in place as the voters mulled over new information - and the bin Laden tape was a big piece of new information. While some folks like myself have been focusing on what bin Laden said, a certain segment of voters were and are just reacting to the reappearance of bin Laden. Their reaction to what he said will come after they have “digested” the fact that he is alive.
More Obi-Wan:
There is not much significance to the fact that many respondents to polls say the bin Laden tape will not affect their vote. A majority of voters said the Bush DUI wouldn’t affect them in 2000, and they were right, in that they were already committed to Bush or to Gore. The important respondents weren’t the ones who said it wouldn’t, it was the four or five percent that it ended up actually effecting.
The ghost of the 2000 DUI has been haunting Republicans throughout this election. It was a traumatic event on Republican expectations - and all year long, Republican voters and analysts have been waiting for some other October surprise that is going to knock down their man another four or five points.
But that was four years and a completely different electorate ago. This is the post-9/11 election world, where Bush is no longer an unknown quantity, but a president who has been tested and proven by the worst crisis to face a president since 1941. Almost no one had terrorism on their mind in 2000.
This weekend, voters were ‘digesting’ the bin Laden tape, a process that continued as they came back to work on Monday, and talked around the water cooler, listened to the radio, talked to coworkers, etc.
Each time there has been a significant event in the campaign - the conventions, each one of the debates - the poll numbers have returned to a small but significant, outside-the-margin of error lead over Kerry within about four or five days. During these initial events, the polls have bounced around, sometimes showing Kerry surging, but the numbers always settle back to the Bush 49ish Kerry 44ish area.
So, the bin Laden tape appears, and is the equivalent of one of the debates, or a vice-presidential pick, or some other event that focuses the public’s attention. They think about it Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday - and on Tuesday, were tomorrow to be a normal Election Day, it would return to that Bush ahead by four or five points again.
Having Halloween on a Sunday, and the final weekend of the campaign, complicated matters. You had parents, suburbanites, and all kinds of people out of their houses.
Obi-Wan also wonders if some major pollsters have been “Zogbified.”
Zogby in recent days has discussed how he adjusts his “formula” for turnout when his polls get a result that differs greatly from his expectations. It is a natural instinct when one gets a wacky result (“Bush within four in Illinois? That can’t be!”) but a pollster has to be careful when he decides to start fiddling with which voters are likely to show up on Election Day and how many.
Obi-Wan wonders if the polling industry is going to confront a “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment, where their methods are proven out-of-date in a rapidly changing world. When you have polls coming out on the same day showing such massive variance as Quinnipiac showing Bush ahead in Florida by 8 and Fox News showing Kerry ahead in the same state by 5, someone is going to be proven wrong. Rasmussen has Bush up 4 in Ohio while the last Gallup has Kerry up 4. Gallup has Bush up 4 in Pennsylvania while SurveyUSA has Kerry up 4. Mason Dixon has Kerry up 2 in Wisconsin, while Gallup had Bush up 8.
How are people really going to react? Take a look at the internals of the polls, which doesn’t have such wild variances. Obi Wan points to (ironically, in light of many people's opinion of the two organizations) the New York Times/CBS poll out today. The poll showed Bush leading, 49 percent to 46 percent.
But the internals - well, PoliPundit summarized it:
48% of voters will vote on national security issues; only 33% on domestic issues.
By a 54%-29%, voters believe the Bush Administration has made them safer.
53% of voters do not think that Kerry agrees with their priorities, his worst number ever.
48% of voters do not think that Bush agrees with their priorities. 49% believe he does share their priorities.
52% of voters think Kerry has leadership qualities, his lowest number ever.
62% of voters think President Bush has leadership qualities.
57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.
60% believe Kerry says what people want to hear. Only 36% say that about President Bush.
This poll was conducted Friday and Saturday. Is this any sign of a surge to Kerry? Hardly.
So why is this race so close? Because, Obi Wan suspects, voters know the course that Bush has charted is hard, and will have hard moments. They know that bringing democracy to the Middle East and crushing militant Islamists, rogue states and terrorism is going to have frustrations, setbacks, and casualties. If the world didn’t need this task done, Americans would prefer to stay home and re-live the 1990s.
But Americans know the world changed. The sudden reappearance of the bearded psychopath playing pundit in Arabic on Friday was just the latest reminder. And Americans won’t vote for the candidate of the Global Test.
I saw a Kerry/Edwards sticker on the back of a Chevy Suburban today in Irving, TX.
Hmmmmmm. Anyone else see the irony in that?
this is a good summary...
I did my part today. I ran around like a chicken with my head cut off, getting affidavits signed by people in hospitals (6 people) then running to supervisor of elections for absentee ballots then back to hospitals for voting and signatures...All worth it!!
I talked to a Rabbi at the hospital that's voting for Bush...I talked to a lady in my office building that is 47 years old and never voted!! she's voting tomorrow BECAUSE of Kerry and throwing her vote to GWB.
By the way, I'm in Florida :)
Democracy's fatal flaw: Voting is permitted without a mental means test.
I got your point, Professor. And I think you made it strikingly well.
How's the all-impotant ground game going in OH? You do realize that you hold the keys to the kingdom, right?
Also, I don't really see the value in averaging {bogus}polls. As they say, if you put one foot in a bucket of ice water and one foot in a bucket of boiling water, on average you should feel just fine!
Indeed, someone postulated last night that Zogby may have dumped his outrageously whacky state polls into the mix precisely to draw-down the RCP lead shown for Bush, thus, giving {false} hope to the dems.
Dear Brett 66:
The best post I've seen in a long time. You hit it on the head. Thank you very much. The link just got emailed to everyone in my address book.
"Obi-Wan" is Jim "KerrySpot" Gerraghty's code name for his "highly-placed" informant inside the GOP campaign operation.
We have not become 100% united and determined. Only about half of us have. We're still close to where we were in 2000. Unfortunately.
NEVER FORGET!!!
But Americans know the world changed. The sudden reappearance of the bearded psychopath playing pundit in Arabic on Friday was just the latest reminder. And Americans won’t vote for the candidate of the Global Test.
So very well said.
I continue to believe that Americans are going to stand up in numbers tomorrow. We are going to be proud!
Thank you, Bill Whittle is a very gifted writer, he's written some incredible articles.
I'll be looking for you! I have signed up 37 NEW voters, and ALL will vote GW tomorrow!
LLS
Bush 65%, Kerry 34% pv.
Bush 341, Kerry 197 ev.
Bump
I'm gonna hope it didn't seem that way to you at the time.
It was more than enough to get my attention, we'll see tomorrow.
The "Fabian-right"...???
Haven't forgotten, unfortunately a LOT have. How many flags do you see today compared to just after 9/11?
Mike Spann 11/25/01
Thank you for your summary and most importantly your efforts.
I look foreward to the sad faces in the MSM, they deserve it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.