Word From Obi-Wan Kenobi (NRO-Kerryspot) [ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT LAST TWO PARAGRAPHS]

National Review Online ^ | 11/1/04 | Jim Geraghty

[LS]

WORD FROM OBI-WAN KENOBI [11/01 07:25 PM]

After a busy day, had a chance to talk with Obi Wan Kenobi, the longtime GOP operative who is rapidly becoming a favorite of Kerry Spot readers.

The very short version: Can Kerry win this?

Obi Wan: I don’t see it… unless there is a sudden and big break to Kerry tonight.

The longer version:

While I (Jim) initially thought the bin Laden tape meant a Bush landslide, Obi Wan had a doubt or two. Not that the tape would hurt Bush, but that it might freeze things in place as the voters mulled over new information - and the bin Laden tape was a big piece of new information. While some folks like myself have been focusing on what bin Laden said, a certain segment of voters were and are just reacting to the reappearance of bin Laden. Their reaction to what he said will come after they have “digested” the fact that he is alive.

More Obi-Wan:

There is not much significance to the fact that many respondents to polls say the bin Laden tape will not affect their vote. A majority of voters said the Bush DUI wouldn’t affect them in 2000, and they were right, in that they were already committed to Bush or to Gore. The important respondents weren’t the ones who said it wouldn’t, it was the four or five percent that it ended up actually effecting.

The ghost of the 2000 DUI has been haunting Republicans throughout this election. It was a traumatic event on Republican expectations - and all year long, Republican voters and analysts have been waiting for some other October surprise that is going to knock down their man another four or five points.

But that was four years and a completely different electorate ago. This is the post-9/11 election world, where Bush is no longer an unknown quantity, but a president who has been tested and proven by the worst crisis to face a president since 1941. Almost no one had terrorism on their mind in 2000.

This weekend, voters were ‘digesting’ the bin Laden tape, a process that continued as they came back to work on Monday, and talked around the water cooler, listened to the radio, talked to coworkers, etc.

Each time there has been a significant event in the campaign - the conventions, each one of the debates - the poll numbers have returned to a small but significant, outside-the-margin of error lead over Kerry within about four or five days. During these initial events, the polls have bounced around, sometimes showing Kerry surging, but the numbers always settle back to the Bush 49ish Kerry 44ish area.

So, the bin Laden tape appears, and is the equivalent of one of the debates, or a vice-presidential pick, or some other event that focuses the public’s attention. They think about it Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday - and on Tuesday, were tomorrow to be a normal Election Day, it would return to that Bush ahead by four or five points again.

Having Halloween on a Sunday, and the final weekend of the campaign, complicated matters. You had parents, suburbanites, and all kinds of people out of their houses.

Obi-Wan also wonders if some major pollsters have been “Zogbified.”

Zogby in recent days has discussed how he adjusts his “formula” for turnout when his polls get a result that differs greatly from his expectations. It is a natural instinct when one gets a wacky result (“Bush within four in Illinois? That can’t be!”) but a pollster has to be careful when he decides to start fiddling with which voters are likely to show up on Election Day and how many.

Obi-Wan wonders if the polling industry is going to confront a “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment, where their methods are proven out-of-date in a rapidly changing world. When you have polls coming out on the same day showing such massive variance as Quinnipiac showing Bush ahead in Florida by 8 and Fox News showing Kerry ahead in the same state by 5, someone is going to be proven wrong. Rasmussen has Bush up 4 in Ohio while the last Gallup has Kerry up 4. Gallup has Bush up 4 in Pennsylvania while SurveyUSA has Kerry up 4. Mason Dixon has Kerry up 2 in Wisconsin, while Gallup had Bush up 8.

How are people really going to react? Take a look at the internals of the polls, which doesn’t have such wild variances. Obi Wan points to (ironically, in light of many people's opinion of the two organizations) the New York Times/CBS poll out today. The poll showed Bush leading, 49 percent to 46 percent.

But the internals - well, PoliPundit summarized it:

48% of voters will vote on national security issues; only 33% on domestic issues.

By a 54%-29%, voters believe the Bush Administration has made them safer.

53% of voters do not think that Kerry agrees with their priorities, his worst number ever.

48% of voters do not think that Bush agrees with their priorities. 49% believe he does share their priorities.

52% of voters think Kerry has leadership qualities, his lowest number ever.

62% of voters think President Bush has leadership qualities.

57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.

60% believe Kerry says what people want to hear. Only 36% say that about President Bush.

This poll was conducted Friday and Saturday. Is this any sign of a surge to Kerry? Hardly.

So why is this race so close? Because, Obi Wan suspects, voters know the course that Bush has charted is hard, and will have hard moments. They know that bringing democracy to the Middle East and crushing militant Islamists, rogue states and terrorism is going to have frustrations, setbacks, and casualties. If the world didn’t need this task done, Americans would prefer to stay home and re-live the 1990s.

But Americans know the world changed. The sudden reappearance of the bearded psychopath playing pundit in Arabic on Friday was just the latest reminder. And Americans won’t vote for the candidate of the Global Test.

[LS]

The sad, sad fact is that not enough Americans were killed on 9/11. It was not so overwhelmingly traumatic that we became 100% united and determined. That there could still be people out there who don't want to do what is necessary "because it's hard" boggles the mind. Obi-Wan is a very smart man (or woman).

[Angry Republican]

Obi-Wan? The Star Wars dude?

[bubbac]

The sad, sad fact is that not enough Americans were killed on 9/11.

Are you out of your mind? Go back to DU. One American killed was one too many.

[skaterboy]

OK with all do respect it is time to shut up!! ITS PUT UP TIME

GO VOTE,DRAG FRIENDS TO THE POLLS.EVEN IF ITS A SAFE STATE YOU DO IT

I wont be on at all tomorrow cause ill be up at 6am driving van loads of peeps to the polls all day for W and im in MISSISSIPPI

[nikos1121]

Bush will win big. I cannot believe that Americans are

a. stupid
b. don't see throught the mediocrity of a KERRY/EDWARDS ticket.
c. America has never changed Presidents during a war.
d. Devine intervention brought Reagan and Margaret Thatcher into power at the same time. The people of Iraq and Afganiststan will not be forsaken. Freedom is on the uprise. Bush has inherited this legacy.


nick

[FReepaholic]

...It was not so overwhelmingly traumatic that we became 100% united and determined. ...

The attacks on September 11 awakened the sleeping patriotic masses...for awhile. The libs and other snakes slithered under their rocks to wait.

The libs feigned solidarity with us but time passed and the masses went back to work and their daily lives and the snakes crawled out and began their normal bashing of this country.

If you've seen or read the Lord of the Rings, you could picture the Dems and their MSM lackeys as Grima Wormtongue whispering in the ears of the once noble and powerful America.

We awoke briefly but Grima has returned to whisper more.

[Diogenesis]

Too many were murdered.

The War for Infinite Justice MUST BE ESCALATED

================= EXHIBIT 1 ================

Madrid

---

================= EXHIBIT 2 ================

---

The War for Infinite Justice MUST BE ESCALATED

================= EXHIBIT 3 ================

AMERICANS ON A BRIDGE IN FALLUJA BY ISLAMIC SUBHUMANS

---

The War for Infinite Justice MUST BE ESCALATED

================= EXHIBIT 4 ================

TORTURE OF AMERICANS BY ISLAMIC SUBHUMANS

---

The War for Infinite Justice MUST BE ESCALATED

================= EXHIBIT 5 ================

PARTIAL LIST OF ISLAMIC TERRORIST ACTIVITIES

1968 Robert Kennedy assassinated
1972 Munich Olympics Sep-5,1972 (Black September)
1976 Entebbe Hostage Crisis, June 27, 1976
1979 Iran Hostage Crisis, Nov. 4, 1979 444 days
1979 Grand Mosque Seizure, Nov 20,1979
1981 Assassination of Egyptian President, Oct 6,1981
1982 Assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister, Sept 14, 1982
1983 Bombing of US Embassy in Beirut6, April 18,1983
1983 Bombing of Maring Barricks, Beruit, Oct 23,1983
1984 Hizballah Restaurant Bombing, April 12,1984
1985 Egyptian Airliner Hijacking, Nov 23,1985
1985 Rome Airport murders
1985 TWA Flight 847 hijacked, U.S. Navy diver murdered
1985 Achille Lauro hijacking, Homacidal maniac lived in saddams Iraq
1986 Aircraft Bombing in Greece, March 30, 1986
1988 Pan Am 747 Flight 103 Bombing, Lockerbie, 100's murdered
1988 Berlin Discoteque Bombing, Dec 21,1988
1992 Bombing in Israeli Embassy in Argentina, March 17,1992
1993 Attempted Assassination of Pres. Bush Sr., April 14,1993
1993 First World Trade Center bombing, February 26th, 7 Killed, Hundreds injured, Billions
1994 Air France Hijacking, Dec 24,1994
1995 Attack on US Diplomats in Pakistan, Mar 8,1995
1995 Military Installation Attack, Nov 13, 1995
1995 Kashmiri Hostage taking, July 4,1995
1996 Khobar Towers attack
1996 Sudanese Missionarys Kidnapping, Aug 17,1996
1996 Paris Subway Explosion, Dec 3,1996
1997 Israeli Shopping Mall Bombing, Sept 4, 1997
1997 Yemeni Kidnappings, Oct 30,1997
1998 Somali Hostage taking crisis, April 15,1998
1998 U.S. Embassy Bombing in Peru, Jan 15, 1998
1998 U.S. Kenya Embassy blown up, 100's murdered
1998 U.S. Tanzania Embassy blown up, 100's murdered
1999 Plot to blow up Space Needle (thwarted)
2000 USS Cole attacked, many U.S. Navy sailors murdered
2000-2003 Intifada against Israel - 100's dead and injured
2000 Manila Bombing, Dec 30,2000
2001 4 Commercial airliners hijacked, 250+ murdered
2001 World Trade Center attacked, 2800+ murdered
2001 Flight 93 murders
2001 Pentagon attacked, 180+ murdered
2002 Reporter Daniel Pearl, kidnapped and murdered
2002 Philippines American missionary, Filipino nurse killed
2002 July 4, El Al attack Los Angeles LAX, several murdered
2002 Bali bombing - 200 dead, 300 injured
2002 Yemen, French Oil Tanker attacked
2002 Marines attacked / murdered in Kuwait
2002 Washington D.C. sniper
2002 Russian Theater attacked, 100+ dead
2002 Nigerian riots against Miss World Pageant, 200 dead, dozens injured
2002 Mombasa Hotel Attacked, 12 dead, dozens injured
2002 Israeli Boeing 757 attacked by missiles, fortunately no one injured
2002 August Hotel bombing in Jakarta, Indonesia. 12 dead, dozens injured.
2003 Rusian concert bombing
2003 Phillipines airport and market bombing
2003 Foiled SAM plot in the USA
2003 UN Baghdad HQ Bombing
on and on and on and on their terrorism has gone .........

---

The War for Infinite Justice MUST BE ESCALATED

================= EXHIBIT 6 ================

The War for Infinite Justice SHOULD HAVE BEEN ESCALATED IN 2001

[Cold Heat]

I understand your point, but you said it very poorly.

[PilloryHillary]

Not enough Americans were killed on 9/11??? It was not so overwhelmingly traumatic that we became 100% united and determined??? HAVE YOU BEEN SMOKING CRACK????

[LS]

Perhaps. Apparently not enough Americans died that the large majority of Americans reacted with the necessary anger and resolve. What's even more galling is that the very city in which that happened tomorrow is going to vote 4:1 in favor of John Kerry and the appeasement crowd.

[LS]

See the next post. I worded it poorly, but my point is that apparently, based on the reaction of 45% of the country, not enough Americans were killed. Understand the point? Tomorrow, the very city in which those people died is going to vote 4:1 to APPEASE the very people who did this.

[kimoajax]

Obi-Wan is smart.

With regards to the OBL tape, I noticed a number of not-too-involved barely awake politically type folks (who also vote)had the response of feeeeling it was somehow Bush's fault OBL was even alive.

Go figure.

[JesseJane]

No human tragedy is great enough for democrats to put the country first. They are as radical as the Islamics and happily awaited the 1000th military death, and danced over the next beheading to further their cause. They are as much the enemy as radical Islam, Bin Laden, and Chiraq. They have proven that not even the slaughter of children in Beslan will take their attention away from what is important to them; party power over their childrens lives.

[Intolerant in NJ]

Quinnipiac showing Bush ahead in Florida by 8 and Fox News showing Kerry ahead in the same state by 5...what the pundits forget is that the Quinnipiac is outside the margin of error (+/-3%) while Fox (which is a bad sample to begin with - it has Kerry leading the male vote by 2% - absurd) is well within the MOE (+/-3.7%) - and Gallup in it's original numbers had Bush ahead by 3 until it decided to "adjust" the undecideds by giving 90% of them to Kerry - the pollsters are being too cute by half to try to make their numbers come out to the assumed reality of election night......

[Brett66]

Bill Whittle phrased it better than I ever could when he said this:

But what tortures me is the thought that this country is no longer capable of doing hard, dirty work -- that we have reached the point where nothing difficult is attainable because the cost is something less than free.

A FINAL THOUGHT BEFORE THE SHOW

[buttons]

Dont you think by now that it"s obvious that the looney-left, the comm symps or the marxists or whatever you call them are not going to agree with the Fabian-right come hell or high water, which is not to far down the road in my opinion ?

[Cold Heat]

What you should have said, is that for the second time, Democrats and their socialist rabble counterparts have politicized a war at the expense of unity and may very well damage the prosecution of the war by doing so.

They have eroded trust by our Allies in our foreign policy and damaged the morale of our fighting men and women.

IMO, the only thing we could have done to prevent it, would have been to previously demoted the democrat party to obsolescence and to have so demoralized their supporters so that their voices, their bile and their stupidity would never have surfaced, for fear of recognition and subsequent banishment from civilization.

But, we never put them away like we should have.

[AnnaZ]

 

I never noticed that poor guy hanging on before.

[Jim Noble]

Changing the name of Operation Infinite Justice was a small error.

The thinking that permitted it to be changed is disordered in a major way.

We will learn the price of that thinking in only 24 hours.

[Paladin2]

Vote for Bush, we must.