Gallup : Bush 49 Kerry 47 LV

CNN ^ | 10/31/04

[motife]

A separate Gallup poll of likely voters indicated a similar split nationwide, with 49 percent choosing Bush and 47 percent taking Kerry -- a virtual tie given the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Independent candidate Ralph Nader had 1 perc

[blteague]

Who is surprised? The MSM has wanted this all along. It won't be close come Tuesday and the MSM will wonder what went wrong? The passion for truth and righteousness in this country will carry the day. Pray, fast, vote and volunteer and watch Tuesday as W's victory will be clear.

[blteague]

Oh yea...BTW, 52-47 w/k...sKerry has never polled over 47 and he won't after Tuesday.

[Txsleuth]

Uh, don't count on it - before any MSM could tell the story about the Major that came forward at the Pentagon, you had the tape of Bin Ladin show up.

That wiped the story from the Pentagon off the radar. So you take the people that believe the NYT story, add a little threat from Bin Ladin and you have a lot of people convinced that Bush messed up bigtime.

[flashbunny]

BEFORE THE USUAL PEOPLE PANIC

Remember during the debates - gallup would come out with a post-debate weekend poll showing a kerry surge. Then a regular weekday poll showing bush back in the lead. And then next weekend they'd do the same thing. And then next week Bush would be back in the lead.

WEEKEND POLLS OVERSAMPLE DEMS

This weekend will give you the most skewed samples of any time during the campaign, since all these pollsters are running to get a last minute poll out. And few of them actually adjust their party affiliation to get a better sample.

[Txsleuth]

Thank you flashbunny, I needed that.!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Btw, howdy Army!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dr Snide]

an all weekend poll which show Bush ahead with Likely voters with a 51 approval rating. Not what I was hoping for but it could be worse

[unspun]

There are some of those, but that's what Monday is for. You can believe that Bush's people have paid attention to this Gallup poll.

[Mike10542]

Gallup came up with 49-47, but then did some sort of statistical thing to allocate the remaining undecideds (in other words gave them all to Kerry) and said 49-49. They probably did that just so whoever wins they can't be wrong. But giving that it was on a weekend, I'd say the overall truth is around 50-46 or so. All about turnout now.

[conservative_intellectual]

If we give Bush Penn. and Wisconsin in addition NM and IA, Bush wins with 270 to Kerry's 268. Wooo. That's losing Ohio and Florida.

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/index_CALCULATOR.html

We all know that's BS though. As stated ad nauseaum, weekend polls are the most unreliable. We all know that on Friday, people are at football games or preparing to enjoy the night life. On Saturday, they are either sleeping during the day, enjoying a day outdoors, or shopping. On Sunday, people are either sleeping, at Church, or enjoying the day out of the house.

Unfortunately these are the last polls.

[Chuck54]

Just like some wit stated the other night; "The MSM; Rather, Jennings, Brokaw, Brown, Colmes, Mathews, etc with tears in their eyes, will be asking Americans to stay calm until the lawyers get it sorted out."

IMHO, The Fat Lady can start warming up........Bush in a landslide, results by 1100PM. Finally a good nights sleep.

[Rome2000]

[jwalsh07]

Get a load of this. Gallup polls and comes up with 49-47LV in favor of Bush. 1% for Nader which leaves 2% undecided. Gallup decides to assign 2% to Kerry and posts their final poll as 49-49-1.

Among likely voters, Bush job approval is at 51%, 49% among all voters polled.

Gallup special sauce right from jack in the box after insisting all year long they don't sauce their polls. Twilight zone year.

There state polls are all over the damn lot. LOL. Bad year for statisticians let me tell ya.

[monkapotamus]

Surprise surprise! (Gomer voice)

They are promoting the RV result to increase Kerry voter turnout. The LV count would make lazy potential 'rat voters see momentum in Bush's favor and depress their turnout.

[wrathof59]

that's right blt, Kerry never polled higher than 47% for the most part, four months ago my wife said Bush 52-kerry 47, I'll say 51-48, bush 280+ EV, most

[ProudVet77]

In the other states, Bush had leads of 2 points in Iowa and 4 points in Pennsylvania. Kerry had leads of 3 points in Florida and 4 points in Ohio.
Can we say QaaQaa on FR?

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

EVERYONE RELAX. GEORGE W BUSH IS GOING TO WIN!!!!

[nelibeli]

Polling done Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Bush still with a 2 point lead. Translation, Bush is up by 8.

[Betteboop]

dittos!!!

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

I went and saw him in Tampa today. He seemed very upbeat and positive.

[DBeers]

Tesibria