Dear infohawk,
I don't disagree with you. There may be very legitimate reasons why the Battleground poll was off on election day.
But it was off. By a lot.
Frankly though, I don't thing the DUI story moved the polls more than a point our two, and I don't think the lamestream media early call had much effect outside of Florida.
The thing is, that small movement added up to being magnified in proportion.
I think without those two items, Mr. Bush would have won the popular vote by perhaps 1% or 2%, and taken Florida relatively easily, as well as New Mexico, Wisconsin, and one or two other states. Instead of the fiasco we had, we'd have had a modest but discernible win in the popular vote, as well as the electoral vote. And none of this "selected, not elected" crap.
That still leaves the final 2000 Battleground poll as a mediocre also-ran.
sitetest
Not that it matters but the BG poll was running a 3-day average poll with it's last issue on Nov. 6 which was really a 2-day poll average. The DUI story broke early in the day on Thursday Nov. 2 and Bush responded. It got some traction from that point on. The following is the BG polling data for the first week of Nov. 2000
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| Al Gore (D) |
George W. Bush (R) |
Pat Buchanan (Reform) |
Ralph Nader (Green) |
Not Sure |
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| % | % | % | % | % | N |
| Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Snell Perry & Associates (D)/Voter.com/Battleground Survey | |||||||
| # | 11/5-6/00 | 45.0 | 50.0 | 3.5 | 1,000LV | ||
| # | 11/5-6/00 | 41 | 46 | - | 4 | 10 | 1,000LV |
| # | 11/1-2, 5/00 | 37 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 1,000LV |
| # | 10/30 - 11/2/00 | 37 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 1,000LV |
| # | 10/29-31, 11/1/00 | 39 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 1,000LV |
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