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To: goldstategop

It is done by BOTH a GOP firm and a Dem firm. It is the 'gold standard' in polling.


13 posted on 10/30/2004 4:20:58 AM PDT by narses (If you want ON or OFF my Catholic Ping List email me. + http://www.alamo-girl.com/)
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To: narses

Thank you for the information on the polling service. I still wonder about those two sets of numbers, but I don't mean to infer it's 'bad' poll. I just take them all with a grain of salt.

Speaking of which, I heard someone on the radio the other day explaining 'margin of error'. Likely most of you knew what that effect was, but there was one fact I didn't know about it I found interesting. The margin of error is only 95% confidence. I didn't know that and found the implications of it interesting. 5 out of 100 polls are just off. So if a poll comes up with 50% Margin of Error 5, 5% of the time the correct answer isn't within 45-55%. Sort of made me realize how worthless any indiviual poll is and trending is really the way to go.

I found a great explaination at http://www.census.gov/acs/www/UseData/change.htm


19 posted on 10/30/2004 4:41:08 AM PDT by FarmerW (Don't be a Koolaide drinker. We defeated the USSR, MSM is next.)
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