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To: narses

Thank you for the information on the polling service. I still wonder about those two sets of numbers, but I don't mean to infer it's 'bad' poll. I just take them all with a grain of salt.

Speaking of which, I heard someone on the radio the other day explaining 'margin of error'. Likely most of you knew what that effect was, but there was one fact I didn't know about it I found interesting. The margin of error is only 95% confidence. I didn't know that and found the implications of it interesting. 5 out of 100 polls are just off. So if a poll comes up with 50% Margin of Error 5, 5% of the time the correct answer isn't within 45-55%. Sort of made me realize how worthless any indiviual poll is and trending is really the way to go.

I found a great explaination at http://www.census.gov/acs/www/UseData/change.htm


19 posted on 10/30/2004 4:41:08 AM PDT by FarmerW (Don't be a Koolaide drinker. We defeated the USSR, MSM is next.)
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To: FarmerW

You're welcome. The data actually looks solid to me. Look at the breakdown of religions at the end, look at the age breakdown. It is America.


21 posted on 10/30/2004 4:44:25 AM PDT by narses (If you want ON or OFF my Catholic Ping List email me. + http://www.alamo-girl.com/)
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To: FarmerW

One I don't watch the trend on is Zogby...!..Otherwise I do like to see the trend.


24 posted on 10/30/2004 4:46:04 AM PDT by MEG33 (John Kerry has been AWOL on issues of national security for two decades)
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