Posted on 10/29/2004 12:17:39 PM PDT by kyperman
Doesn't even pass the "make sense" test.
Alas, I do tire of hearing people whose pessimism gets dumped on every election thread.
This 56-39 number is from a phone poll done among 944 voters by Quinnipiac.. Of those 944 who were polled, 17 PERCENT OF THEM claimed they already voted.. 160 people.. Out of those 160 people, 89 of them voted for Kerry.. 62 of them voted for Bush REPEAT
I heard, once again, from an individual “familiar with internal discussions within the Bush campaign.” A lot of folks want to know who this source is and are suspicious of campaign leaks. Let’s say this information is what big cheeses in GOP circles are saying to middle cheeses in GOP circles.
Why is info given to me (and Kathryn)? I suspect that in some GOP circles, Kerry Spot and NRO are seen as a good way to reach the Bush base voters who are plugged into the Internet, keeping up with the news, etc. I think the info gets thrown my way to make sure the base isn't being panicked by the Kerry spin from some corners the mainstream media...
So here’s the news for today.
Among early and absentee votes cast already, Bush has huge lead in FL, bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000.
There’s a great contrast in the respective get-out-the-vote operations for Bush and Kerry. Around 25 percent of registered voters report being contacted by a Bush-Cheney volunteer, most often members of their church or community organization or neighbor. About 19 percent of registered voters have been contacted on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards campaign, but the vast majority of these contacts are by paid temps of the campaign, the DNC, or a related 527. Will the personal touch have an effect?
In Hawaii, the Bush campaign has quietly had its eye on this state for a while, and been building a surprisingly strong statewide organization with more than 2,000 volunteers. Kerry put up ad about how bad the economy was, while Hawaii has one of the lowest unemployment rates in country.
In New Mexico, Bush is only few thousand behind in early/absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, a heavy Democrat county.
In Florida, the campaign expects Bush to end up with an estimated 100,000 vote advantage among early and absentee voters.
In Nevada, there is little expectation that this state will be all that competitive. Bush is competitive in Clark County (which includes Las Vegas). Right now Kerry leads 44 percent Bush 41 percent. Kerry needed over 50 percent out of Clark county to win NV. But Bush within a few thousands votes of heavy Dem county.
Finally, a big point of enthusiasm for the GOP is their deep bench of Bush surrogates who can garner big crowds and lots of media attention. The President is in New Hampshire and Ohio today, vith Ah-nuld. Cheney is going to Hawaii. Tommy Franks is in Florida, as is John McCain and former President Bush. Rudy Giuliani is in Iowa, Mitt Romney is in Michigan, and former President Bush will also be in Pennsylvania later. http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp
you are so right. Everytime I go to their site I get bummed.
What a crock. Early zotting should prove your demise.
you are so right. Everytime I go to their site I get bummed.
Since Sep 22, 2004
30 years old. Wife, two beautiful kids. Love Reagan and GWB.
Does your wife know about your other loves?
I imagine the internal polls are going to be far more accurate on this because I am assuming that they are taking a much larger sampling of early voters and are using worse case scenarios for campaigning purposes.
I'm like a roller coaster: up one day and down the next. Hope post-election is not as exhausting as pre-election!
That may be so, but if that's the case, why are Kerry's surrogates there as well? Both sides going to HI--it could be interpreted as a desperate move for both . . .
Folks, only a numbskull democrat would wait 4 hours in line to vote early. Our side will vote at their polls on Tuesday. Don't worry.
Say yo to Cheney for me :-)
"I freaked when I saw this Newsmax/AP story than I read the NRO Jim Gerahty column and my blood pressure went back to its normal level"
Wish I'd seen them in that order!! Need more good news to get my blood pressure back down.
I think Geraghty's info is more current.
I noticed that too....didn't know what to make of it. I can't believe they would make a copy paste mistake and a headline mistake.
I used to do that too, after drinking all their beer.
Most Republicans will vote on election day to make sure their vote doesn't get screwed with or tossed days before the election.
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