Russian Expert Says Flu Epidemic May Kill Over One Billion This Year

Mosnews ^ | 10/28/04

[pandemic_1918]

>>In my expert opinion, this guy is a buffoon.<,

His numbers are very supportable

http://www.recombinomics.com/pandemic_potential.html

[pandemic_1918]

>>Complete nonsense. A pandemic is not in the cards regarding flu. <<

That's not what WHO and CDC say. Do you have any support for your comment?

The data for a pandemic is pretty overwhelming

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_reassort_recombine.html

[pandemic_1918]

>>Does anyone here have numbers of how many died in the great flu pandemic of 1918?<<

The estimates range from 20-50 million, but because if the increase mortality rate

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

and population, a 2004/2005 pandemic could generate 50X the number dead

http://www.recombinomics.com/pandemic_potential.html

[pandemic_1918]

>>I have a hard time believing this, regardless of historical precedent, but stranger things have happened<<

1 billion is just the case fatality rate rate (70%)

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

times the number infected (1.5 - 2 billion).

It's not hard to get to 1 Billion dead.

[pandemic_1918]

>>"Is this guy talking about the same strain of flu that the vaccines are actually designed for, or something entirely different, or is he just nuts?" <<

He's talking about H5N1, the same one WHO, CDC, and just about anyone paying attention is talking about

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

Aventis is working on one pandemic vaccine (against H5N1) while Chiron is making one against H9N2

Both viruses recombine with each other

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_H9N2.html

[ExtremeUnction]

With our "World Class" medical system, the US will be one of the countries least harmed. Some elderly may die, and unfortunately, some young as well. But by and large, most US citizens with the ailment will be treated with fluids, medicine and care. This may be (if it really happens, which I doubt) a catastrophe for primarily the 3rd World's population.

[pandemic_1918]

>>“Up to one billion people could die around the whole world in six months,” Lvov said.

Wuhut?<<

The virus gets around pretty quickly. That's why you need a new flu shot each year.

[pandemic_1918]

>>America and Canada and the Western Euro states all have relatively healthy population, well fed, fat and happy. We do not suffer from internal parasites or persistant infection. We are not already weakened by general life. <<

H5N1 has a case fatality rate of 70-80% of healthy young adults with intact immune system. H5N1 could blow through the US just like H3N2 does. America, Canada, and Western Europe get their fair share of the flu, and H5N1 would be the same

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

[pandemic_1918]

>>There is some hope for control of this potential problem. A few years back several new broad spectrum (neuraminidase inhibtor) flu anti-viral drugs became available. These drugs have been shown to be active against the "bird" flu subtypes. <<

Tamiflu is VERY iffy against H5N1

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_anti_virals.html

[pandemic_1918]

>>Unless they have 10,000 cases with a 25% (or higher) mortality and a name for an identified virus I'm not going down this road again.<,

The case fatality rate for H5N1 avian flu is 70-80% in previously healthy young adults with intact immune systems. The numbers are VERY real

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

If you get avian flu and go into the hospital, the odds are 3-1 against you coming out alive.

[pandemic_1918]

>>Where does the FLU go when the southern Hemisphere is in their winter and we are in summer? Does the flu go on vacation somewhere for the other six months?<<

The flu flies around with birds (remember it is just one flight away)

http://www.recombinomics.com/wild_H5N1.html

[JeffersonRepublic.com]

Here is a blast from the past (1999,BBC):

"Predictions from the CDC suggest that 200,000 in the US could die if a particularly virulent strain of flu struck the country."

It's called the pig flu in this story from 1999. Now it's the bird flu? Sounds like the same BULL$#!T they have been saying for years.

full story:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/489385.stm

Holtz
JeffersonRepublic.com

[pandemic_1918]

>>His figures don't make sense at all. Since he thinks that 700,000 will fall ill in the US, then adjusting for population differences, if Russia fell ill at the same rate, about 350,000 would get the flu in Russia, and he thinks nearly all of them (300,000 hospital beds in reserve) will need to be hospitalized -- all at the same time!

He must be angling for some sort of funding.<<

He is talking about 1 billion worldwide. The case fatality rate is 70-80% and WHO is projecting infections in 1/3 to 1/4 of the world's population. It's easy to get to 1 Billion

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

My grandfather came VERY close to dying during that year.

BTW, the reason this article is so full of b.s. is that most people in the US are educated enough to realize that you don't die of the flu - you die of the SYMPTOMS - such as dehydration - that is, if you don't get enough liquids intaked. That's not gonna happen in this country.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

The sky is falling!

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

One thing is, lots of the deaths are from pneumonia etc. and related to poor general health knowledge.

GMTA. See my post above.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Always Look on the Bright Side of Life!

Sing along!

[Yaelle]

The article at the beginning of this thread seemed to suggest this pandemic would occur within the next 6 months. Flu season has begun on the American continent. Only a very few people in Thailand have contracted an avian flu. How the heck is it going to spread so far so fast, when to date there is only one POSSIBLE human-to-human transmitted case?

Maybe I should throw my pet ducks out of my bed, though, just to be on the safe side.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Welcome to Free Republic!

[ATOMIC_PUNK]

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