Russian Expert Says Flu Epidemic May Kill Over One Billion This Year

Mosnews ^ | 10/28/04

[anniegetyourgun]

The world is on the brink of a major flu epidemic — one that could claim more than a billion lives, the head of the Russian Virology Institute, Academician Dmitry Lvov said at a press conference organized by the RIA-Novosti news agency on Thursday.

“Up to one billion people could die around the whole world in six months,” Lvov said. The expert did not give a timeframe for the epidemic, but said that it is highly probable that it will start this year. “We are half a step away from a worldwide pandemic catastrophe,” the academic said.

The Russian expert said that U.S. researchers possessed data suggesting that if a pandemic hits, up to 700,000 people will fall ill in the United States. He said that the population of the United States can be roughly compared to that of Russia and thus the number of cases will be approximately the same.

The academician said the pandemic was most likely to be caused by the so-called bird flu stem. “The death rate among those who contract this type of flu reaches 70 percent,” Lvov said.

The expert called for the Russian authorities to prepare for the epidemic. The country will need a reserve of at least 300,000 hospital beds if an epidemic breaks out, he said.

[JeffersonRepublic.com]

“Always Look on the Bright Side of Life! Sing along!”

Life of Brian was the best.

Centurion: You know the penalty laid down by Roman law for harboring a known criminal (or scaring us about the nasty flu)
Matthias: No.
Centurion: Crucifixion!
Matthias: Oh.
Centurion: Nasty, eh?
Matthias: Could be worse.
Centurion: What you mean "Could be worse"?
Matthias: Well, you could be stabbed.
Centurion: Stabbed? Takes a second. Crucifixion lasts hours. It's a slow, horrible death.
Matthias: Well, at least it gets you out in the open air.
Centurion: You're weird!

[pandemic_1918]

>>With our "World Class" medical system, the US will be one of the countries least harmed. Some elderly may die, and unfortunately, some young as well. But by and large, most US citizens with the ailment will be treated with fluids, medicine and care. This may be (if it really happens, which I doubt) a catastrophe for primarily the 3rd World's population.
<<

I don't think you understand pandemic H5N1. It primarily attacks young, healthy adults (as did the 1918 flu virus). Death is fairly quick as the virus attacks all organs, leading to internal bleeding, organ failure, and death.

There is no vaccine at this time and antivirals are unlikely to work

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_anti_virals.html

The case mortality rate is 70-80% (3/4 die)

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

H5N1 will sweep through the US as easily as H3N2 (human flu).

The pandemic will be one flight away, and the flu travels worldwide in days.

[pandemic_1918]

>>The article at the beginning of this thread seemed to suggest this pandemic would occur within the next 6 months. Flu season has begun on the American continent. Only a very few people in Thailand have contracted an avian flu. How the heck is it going to spread so far so fast, when to date there is only one POSSIBLE human-to-human transmitted case?<<

If the virus has selective advantage, it doesn't take long for it to become dominant. A good example is Fujian, which is a human H3N2. It is easily transmitted human to human, but has to compete with other H3s, like Panama, as well as H1, and Influenza B. At the end of 2002, Fujian began to emerge. Because manufacturers had a hard time initially growing the virus, it was not included in last year's vaccine, and Fujian ended up beating out Panama with a 3 - 1 (3/4 of Influenza isolates last season were Fujian). So far this season, all influenza A isolates that have been subtyped have been Fujian.

Next Fujian began to be replaced by Wellington, which will replace Fujian in the next human vaccine (for the southern hemisphere).

Flu changes quickly, which is why you need a flu shot each year. On the bird flu side, there is plenty of H5N1 and H9N2 around, especially in Asia.

The new pandemic strain may very well be a H9N2 and H5N1

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_H9N2.html

and can be in the US in a matter of hours (via commercial jet)

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_reassort_recombine.html

[pandemic_1918]

>>Welcome to Free Republic!<<

Thanks. These boards need a little work ;-)!

[pandemic_1918]

>>These flu bugs have morphed themselves to deal with all the drugs,<<

Most of the genetic info in H5N1 is avian, but they are resistant to Amantadine and Ramantadine leaving just Tamiflu, which is also pretty iffy

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_anti_virals.html

The Amantine and Ramantadine mutations are related to acquisition of mammalian sequences

http://www.recombinomics.com/swine_human_signatures.html

[Jackknife]

It only afflicts people with PEST.

[pandemic_1918]

>>It only afflicts people with PEST.<<

H5N1 infects wild and domestic cats

http://www.recombinomics.com/more_tiger_deaths.html

and H3N8 can kill dogs

http://www.recombinomics.com/greyhound_deaths.html

[Jackknife]

It was a joke. sorry.

[mdmathis6]

I remeber going thru a grave yard here in virginia and seeing a number of folks who died fairly youthfully,especially women in 1918 according to the tomb-stones I saw!

[tiki]

The scare mongers have their place. If the people hadn't panicked about SARS it may have come to fruition. Because they panicked, the countries which were affected took drastic measures. China mostly ignored it until they had to deal with it. This year China is being much more responsible and cautious about flu-like illnesses.

This guy sounds hysterical but if he makes people cautious he will have served his purpose.

[pandemic_1918]

>>I remeber going thru a grave yard here in virginia and seeing a number of folks who died fairly youthfully,especially women in 1918 according to the tomb-stones I saw!

Yes, most who died of the 1918 pandemic flu were 18-45.

The median age of H5N1 2004 flu is 13

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html