Posted on 10/26/2004 9:36:35 PM PDT by Utah Girl
I understand this evening that columnist Tony Snow said on Bill O'Reilly this evening that the Kerry campaign was conceding Florida and focusing its resources on shoring up Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Checked with my guy on the Kerry campaign. He said Kerry is currently scheduled to spend Thursday night, all of Friday, and Friday night in Florida.
So for now, I don't think there's anything to Snow's rumor. It seems rather late to pull resources, anyway. The ads, the volunteers, the resources... they are where they are.
Juan is brain dead....
Think what it would do to Kerry supporters.
I think someone snowed Tony with this one. Bet he won't be using this source in the future.
Electile Disfunction
Here is the quote:
Tony Snow: "...You can't look at the nationwide polls, you have to look at them state by state and talk to the campaigns a little bit. The Democrats have all but given up on Florida, believe it or not. Their internal polls must be pretty discouraging. They're packing it in in Colorado, also. They're going to make their big stand, and focus on Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania."
Juan lives and breaths the Liberal playbook.
It's odd that he wouldn't jump on this comment unless he either a) knew it held some truth b) Dems have an alternative strategy we're not privy to.
Difficult to see how this would help them, though. I suppose they could have leaked this, only to say it's a nasty trick by Republicans in hopes it would rev their base. I doubt it would have that effect though.
Which leads me back to the suspicion there is some truth in this allegation.
See #25.
Well, if the source snowed Tony, he also snowed Juan. This rumor has got to be spread all over the net. It's got to be posted on every board, blog, chatroom everywhere. It is incredibly demoralizing.
Anyone know W's schedule?
I think what he was saying is that the Dem pollsters are indicating the gap is too big for Kerry to overcome in a week absent some extraordinary circummstances and they are reevaluating their strategy..Not that he has thrown in the towel as he apparently has in Missouri and Colorado.
"given up on Florida" is different from pulling out from Florida.
And heaven knows, when you've got such outstanding stumpers as Kerry and Edwards, you'd better best keep them OUT of the states where you're planning to make the big stand! LOL
A lot of head fakes going on. The other side was speculating that Bush was giving up first on Pa and then on Ohio; neither seems to be true. You want the other guy to waste his time and keep him guessing. I doubt very much either side will give up on a swing state, although they will have to choose
just a couple this weekend. The smart money is on Ohio and Florida -- they'll both spend a lot of time in both places. The danger is a surprise on the flanks, but outside the swing states the polling seems stable. The good thing
for our guy is that Kerry has many must-win states among the swings,
whereas Bush has more options.
going for wisconsin, ohio, and penn. is really the only smart move at this point. Easy to campaign in nearby states -- especially in the case of Penn and Ohio.
LOL!!!
And don't forget: when you've never been ahead in the race and are no less than two points behind in almost every state, send your VP home for two days......to a state you have NO hope of winning.
This is some plan they have, huh?
There's no upside to the Dems releasing information like this, in fact, it would be very damaging for them. There's no chance of a Republican letdown in Florida, so they aren't going to rope anyone in by doing this. So I have to believe that there is validity to the rumor and to Snow's comment.
Rove knows that disinformation is a two way street.
Classic chess move that compels your opposition to make a move that ends the game.
Hold your breath and watch.
----
Exactly.
First thing it does is demoralize troops in Florida.
Secondly, it could suppress Dem turnout next Tuesday.
Finally, if true, it means that Kerry is putting ALL of his goose eggs in one basket: Ohio.
They don't think they can win this big at all. They are hoping for a disputed Ohio vote and to take two of Wisconsin, Iowa, or Minnesota, New Mexico.
The only problem is, Ohio is likely to go Bush, and internal polling has shown him up by 3 to 4 points, on both sides.
If this is true, it's game over. I still think Kerry can win FL moreso than OH. But if FL is bad, then so is OH.
OK, I was already convinced that this was a nothing story but now it makes perfect sense--he wasn't saying they're officially giving up FL, but that they've resigned themselves to not winning, though of course they will continue on for all the reasons mentioned here, and also to get popular votes.
I find Snow's comments perfectly believable, and consistent with the Dems fighting on even though they see the writing on the wall.
Actually the ARG poll shows Kerry 49, Bush 46 in FL.
ARG internal numbers show: Whites (71%) Bush 53 to 43, Hispanic (15%) Bush 48 to 43,
but Blacks (14%) Kerry 86 to 10.
Doing the math:
Bush: 53*.71+48*.15+10*.14=46.23
Kerry: 43*.71+43.15+86*.14=49.02
Kerry must think that Blacks are not going to vote.
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