I'm worried about all these polls, even those that put President Bush ahead by a few points. While roaming through the electoral-vote.com website I came across the results of the final polls conducted before the election in 2000: http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/polls-2000.html
Bush had a lead comparable then to what he has now in the polls that show he is ahead - but we know how the popular vote ended up back then. I won't feel confident until he has built up a significant lead in the polls.
Don't forget the DUI