...at least for the next 4 years
Posted on 10/26/2004 2:04:15 PM PDT by StopDemocratsDotCom
WashPost Tracking: Kerry: 50% Bush: 48%
Very good! Bush is still at 50%. His lead is HOLDING. There's been no REAL change in the dynamics of the race for a week now and we still have a week to go before the election.
The WaPo editor said over the weekend that Kerry had his best two day on Sat. and Sun. That's all we are seeing in the WaPo tracking poll. We have to wait until Thursday for those two days to roll off. And, anyways, Kerry's movement is within the MOE. Zogby on the other hand, shows Bush with a 3 point lead and almost no undecideds left for Kerry. And the most trusted polling company, Gallup has Bush over 50% approval, ahead by 8 in Florida and Ras. has Bush ahead 4 in Ohio.
Let's see.
-W. is up on average in the national polls.
-He's up in Florida on average.
-He's up in Ohio on average.
-He doesn't need Ohio to win since he's doing so well in Iowa and Wisconsin.
-The Iowa Electronic Markets predict that he'll win around 51% of the vote and think he's more likely to win the election.
-A majority of the electorate thinks Bush is going to win, which is the most important predictor.
-Kerry is a tool
Yep. Time to panic.
disturbance in the force.
were losing it.
I don't see it happening. At this point, just about everyone has decided. If you take all of the polls together and average them, it is clear that Kerry is hitting a ceiling at about 46-47%. Not coincidentally, the percentage of people who disapprove of Bush's job performance is 47%, according to RCP. Bush's floor is around 48% -- about two or three points (depending upon the poll) below his job approval rating (and likely total on election day).
I have been saying for months now that if you really want to know what will happen on Election day, compare the percentage of people who approve of Bush's job performance with the percentage of people who don't. These numbers will give you the single best historical predictor of the outcome. For this reason, I actually think the race is closer to where Gallup has it: 51-46% for President Bush, with 51% job approval. I actually think he will do slightly better than 51%.
Meanwhile, I suspect -- don't know for a fact, but suspect -- that you will like this poll a bit better starting tomorrow and especially Thursday.
...at least for the next 4 years
what were bush's numbers on monday?
Don't forget the DUI
The Post said themselves that Kerry had 2 of his best 3 single days of polling since they started on BOTH Saturday and Sunday. Given that the other polls are not showing a similar trend over the entire period covered here, safe to assume it is garbage data. To answer your question though, without knowing the single day numbers it could have been something crazy like Kerry 55% to Bush 45% on Saturday for all we know. Bush staying at 48% during a stretch with Kerry's best days (bad sample data?) is not bad IMO. IF this poll continues to show a Kerry lead on Thursday and Friday of this week then I am confident there will be similar trends in other polls that will have us all screaming :)
Word is definitely getting out that the weapons story is a coordinated hit piece. For heavens sake, it goes back to April 2003 and the media is treating it like something that happened last week.
Tell me again what news Kerry was able to exploit on Sat and Sun for his gain?
We have now entered into the period where polls are done to achieve political goals by groups such as the MSM who have a political agenda. The only polls to watch from here to the end are polling groups who do not have a political agenda, or the sites that do averaging across polls to take out most of the bias. The WAPO and ABC clearly have an agenda, so their poll is worthless.
>>>Before everyone freaks out here, this average still includes BOTH Saturday and Sunday numbers.
Also, only 350 were polled. Low sampling by standards.
I know about the Kerry spike on Saturday, which was supposedly his single best day since the tracking poll started. I didn't hear so much about Sunday.
Let me give everyone a tip. When they become available, check the internals for this poll (go to their website page and look for "demographics."). Then check out the breakdown by age groups. Note that Kerry is leading substantially only among the youngest voters -- those least likely to vote (as proven election after election). There is your clue to what is wrong with this poll, as well as what is wrong with this poll's likely voter model.
Horowitz is going to be 2 miles from my house, Republican Ronald Reagon dinner, thursday. he admitted he helped kerry and fonda with the anti war movement, and was ashamed of it. was asked what turned him around. he only got to the first point before the break... he likes to talk! that point was that over 2 million south vietnamese were killed when we pulled out, though kerry said it wouldn't happen.
this is all from memory, not exact, but more or less... that carter and gore and others are the enemy, they are trying to soften up america for the kill. when they call themselves liberals, they are not tolerant, and they will help the terrorists defeat us. he said you could never support the troops and not the war, that kerry and his group and demoralizing our troops when they say wrong war, etc....He says if we pull out of iraq there will be a blood bath, the terrorists will reap great bounds and there will also be blood on the streets in new york, miami, etc...... i just have to go see him speak now, or at least buy his new book.
he says they are traitors....all this rant against our president, commander in chief, with soldiers in battle is the worst treason since our country started!!!!!! and on and on....
>>>Bush refuses to defend himself.
Good. Truth needs no defense.
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