Posted on 10/26/2004 2:04:15 PM PDT by StopDemocratsDotCom
WashPost Tracking: Kerry: 50% Bush: 48%
I know this much is True: good wins.
I ain't worryin'.
This special sauce poll is a Washington Post home cooked recipe...........
IT'S BUSH 50!! KERRY 48!
Give it until Thur or Fri to see if a trend or not. All the other 3 tracking polls are positive for Bush. I suspect Bush will be back up in BOTH Ras and ABC/WaPo by Friday. Probably 1-2 points again. Evidently, both Ras and ABC/WaPo got some outlier samples this weekend. We have already seen Ras start moving back to Bush today, and this one should within the next day or two. Again, this is the only poll showing Kerry up. What are the odds that this one is right and the other 12-15 are wrong?
bush still tracking 55.6, down.5 at radesports and over 60 for florida, although down a point today.
so still good, but droppping.
http://www.tradesports.com/
4 Days in a row like this is not good news. This must be what the WaPo was talking about a sKerry "surge."
The question begs to be asked why other polls are not picking this up.
Zogby and his special sauce are not picking it up, nor is gallup, harris or tipp.
Rassmussen, however, is picking this up.
Anyone have any insight into what the raw numbers were for those days and if the numbers look better for Bush over the next couple of days?
| Poll |
Date
|
Bush/
Cheney |
Kerry/
Edwards |
Nader/
Camejo |
Spread
|
|
RCP Average
|
10/21 - 10/25
|
48.8%
|
46.5%
|
1.2%
|
Bush +2.3
|
|
10/23 - 10/25
|
48%
|
50%
|
1%
|
Kerry +2
|
|
|
10/23 - 10/25
|
49%
|
46%
|
1%
|
Bush +3
|
|
|
10/22 - 10/25
|
49%
|
43%
|
2%
|
Bush +6
|
|
|
10/22 - 10/24
|
51%
|
46%
|
1%
|
Bush +5
|
|
|
10/21 - 10/24
|
48%
|
48%
|
1%
|
TIE
|
|
|
10/21 - 10/22
|
48%
|
46%
|
1%
|
Bush +2
|
ABC/WP is now an outlier
oh, and uh...< \horse crap>
I thought it was a four day rolling sample, but I went back and checked and -- you're right. Kerry's excellent Saturday drops off tomorrow.
I have a wager with my wife (never mind he stakes) that, by next Monday the polls of every major media outlet (not the independents like Gallup, Zogby, etc.) will have Kerry up between 2 and 4 points. Thus, the "may as well vote for a winner" syndrome has been planted.
Why are you saying it is Bush 50 and Kerry 48? I went to their web site and that is not what I am seeing. Please explain.....
This link has some interesting results about midway down the site that shows the final 2000 pre-election polls for all the different polls and the actual results of the election.
http://www.aapor.org/default.asp?ID=39&page=news_and_issues/aapor_newsletter_detail
Actually, a good Friday for Bush dropped off. The poll is a three day rolling average, not four days as I originally said. Tomorrow Kerry's excellent Saturday drops off.
I dont think we are doomed.. but I want to put the pliars to this explosive story and expose it for what it is.
Its a long election season and I am exhausted.
The breakdown is shown here http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/2004tracking/track102604.html
Kerry had his best day yesterday getting 50%
Note that the whole poll is net leaned vote.
It's only a three day poll, not a four day poll as I origianlly said. Kerry's excellent Saturday drops off tomorrow.
Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:
Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/25/04 48 50 1 * * 0 1
10/24/04 48 49 1 * 1 0 1
10/23/04 49 48 1 * 1 * 2
10/22/04 50 46 1 * 1 * 2
10/21/04 50 46 1 * * * 2
10/20/04 51 45 1 * 1 * 2
10/19/04 50 47 1 * * * 2
10/18/04 51 46 1 * * 0 2
10/17/04 50 47 1 * * * 2
10/16/04 50 46 2 * * * 2
10/15/04 50 47 2 * * * 1
10/14/04 48 48 1 * 1 * 1
10/13/04 48 48 1 * 1 0 2
10/12/04 48 49 1 * 1 0 2
Good catch. I didn't even look at the RV totals.
"Rassmussen, however, is picking this up. "
Actually, no. JK was up by 2 in yesterday's Rassmussen poll, but today it is tied once again. That suggests that the poll is trending W. The only poll showing any sort of JK "surge" is the WaPo. We'll see how it behaves in the coming days. But anyway, I can't understand why anyone even frets over these polls. Don't let a couple of hundred people speak for the entire nation. Polling is inherently undemocratic; we are turning these polls into the unchallengeable word of an oligarchy.
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