Posted on 10/25/2004 8:38:25 AM PDT by Entrepreneur
When Carter administration official, Gary Sick, wrote an OpEd piece in the NY Times entitled “October Surprise,” an urban legend was born. Sick accused "individuals associated with the Reagan-Bush campaign of 1980 met secretly with Iranian officials to delay the release of the American hostages until after the Presidential election." This, of course, was pure fiction and thoroughly investigated and debunked (wasting how much of the taxpayers’ money?). Yet, the myth continues to persist.
The myth is that Republicans launch October Surprises. Phooey. This is another example of Democrats unfoundedly accusing Republicans of the very things the Democrats are guilty of doing. The press then rushes to focus on the Democrat accusations and ignores the Democrat misdeeds.
October Surprises are real. Democrats sponsor them.
Lyndon Johnson’s announcement on October 31, 1968 that he would halt the bombing of North Vietnam is now seen as an October Surprise.
When Bush was surging in the polls, Iran-Contra Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh indicted Casper Weinberger four days before the election. Weinberger hinted of GHW Bush involvement. His momentum stopped. Clinton won.
The indictment was overturned. In fact, it was simply a rewording of his July indictment that was thrown out by a judge.
A week earlier, Ross Perot, who was silent on why he dropped his third party candidacy, before resuming it in October, revealed that the reason as something about a Bush plot to disrupt his daughter’s wedding.
A few days before the election, Tom Connolly, a former Democrat candidate for Governor of Maine leaked old court records of a Bush DUI that occurred 25 years earlier (hey, I thought the Democrats didn’t care about old records from decades in the past like Kerry’s sealed military records – oops, they don’t care about Democrat’s records). Bush’s five point lead evaporated.
If an October Surprise occurs in 2004, it will likely occur Thursday or Friday. The trick is to time the surprise so that it’s far enough in advance of the election to influence it, but not so far in advance that it can be refuted. Remember how fast Dan Rather’s forged documents were debunked? It wouldn’t have been fast enough for the majority of Americans if Rather made his report, say, this Thursday. It took the media time to pick up on what the bloggers discovered, and even then, they acted with reluctance.
Yeah, let’s be on the lookout for October Surprises and dirty tricks. But let’s remember which party has refined the art.
I believe Karl Rove & Co. have promised a couple of Oct. surprises for Kerry.
How about...?
* Letting OBL out of the holding cell we have had him in for photo op.
* Having Kerry's less than honorable discharge made public.
* Photo of Kerry relieving himself on American flag.
* More evidence of his involvement in assassination planning by VFAW in the 70's.
* More damning evidence of his affair with intern Alex Pollier.
The only truely October Surprise was the Houston Astros!
How about a copy Kerry's Communist party membership card turning up.
My October Suprise was learning Ronald Reagan was an Econ Major at Eureka College .... thanks for the info on your profile page.
Where is that video of Kerry burning the American flag. Does it exist or just a urban ledgend?
Boston winning a pennent would be a surprise.
OBL on ice. With a twist. LOL.
>>The only truely October Surprise was the Houston Astros!<<
ROFLOL!!!
<><
I think CBS pretty much neutered the press on Bush bashing.
A serious question: are you being facetious or is there evidence that Kerry is actually a communist? After reading Unfit for Command, I've wondered...
A poster here stated B-1 Bob Dornan saw this act and said that a video/film of such existed. I have no idea if in fact it does. I would have thought if such existed, it would have been brought forward by now. One week to go...
B-1 Bob has become another Al Gore. He thinks he had his election in the Senate stolen from him and he has become a bitter angry nut. I heard him on Shawn's radio show and he was making wild accusation against another Republican. Shawn was very embarressed. He has claimed to have these tapes but has never produced them. I sure hope he does. Would be a terrific Oct. surprise. but I doubt it.
Iran's nuclear apparatus attacked by U.S. or Israeli forces
Nader drops out, endorses Kerry
Arafat dies
A supreme court justices announces retirement
Ken Lay indicted
DOW drops another 500 points
Sharon's govt. falls
a terrorist attack in the U.S.
The 3rd Quarter GDP figures come out friday morning. Any number above 3.3% or below 2.7% should have a significant effect on the weekend news cycle. (sans any "other" events)
"A serious question: are you being facetious or is there evidence that Kerry is actually a communist? After reading Unfit for Command, I've wondered..."
I think Kerry's record since 1971 is evident of his political leanings. Physical Proof? None. I was being facetious.
I'd bet on the drug-user charge along the lines of "Kitty Kelley was right, she just didn't have the details. This further evidence backs up what she was saying. And, by the way, Bush knew he'd never pass a physical and that's why he skipped it."
It doesn't have to convince anybody, just cause a tiny fraction of would-be Bush voters to switch or at least stay home. The strategy came within a few hundred votes of working last time. With four years to work on it (and with the guaranteed participation of the networks), the DNC dirty tricks boys will have come up with something sensational.
It's a riskless scheme; you're not going to have well-meaning democrats switch off of Kerry because they smell a dirty trick and are offended by it. Well-meaning democrats made that switch long ago.
Hoffman and Silvers didn't confine themselves to libeling Republicans. They accused at least one Democrat, Edmund Muskie (Secretary of State in the last eight months of the Carter Administration). Muskie's real crime, of course, was to be nominated for the Vice-Presidency by the 1968 convention that Hoffman and others tried to coerce or break up.
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