First Hawaii, and now This? Are we in Kanses, anymore, toto...
I have a simple theory about Kerry's slippage in what should be safe blue states for him, even while he continues to poll fairly even with Bush in battleground states:
He's doing opkay in the battleground states because that's where he's spending all his time and ad money. Meanwhile, his base was never crazy about him to begin with, and he's not at all a charismatic figure, so it's hard for him to maintain his appeal in a state like Conn. or Hawaii that isn't getting his message crammed down its collective throat on the airwaves or news coverage of local rallies every day. Out of sight, out of mind.
Basically, Kerry has put so many of his eggs in the basket of a few swing states, that he's losing his base.
We see, through a glass, darkly.
Or something profound about polls.