If the election turns out to be a referendum on national security, which is certainly the way it looks now, Bush should win.
I continue to believe, for good reason, that the polls are rigged to make Kerry look stronger than he really is. There's a lot of evidence of this, especially with the Newsweek polls.
In order for vote fraud to work, the election must be seen as being a close race to begin with. A result to out of line with poll expectations would immediately be suspect.