Posted on 10/19/2004 10:12:37 AM PDT by Jane_N
Almost unnoticed by the rest of the world, Macedonia may be drifting into crisis.
The small, impoverished former Yugoslav republic is set to hold a referendum on 7 November about the redrawing of municipal boundaries. No one knows what the actual result will be, except that it is certain to result in months of political wrangling and possible civil unrest.
Some fear it could even tip the country back into a fresh conflict between Macedonians and ethnic Albanians.
Of a population of two million people 62% are Macedonians and a quarter ethnic Albanians.
In 2001 ethnic Albanian guerrillas under the command of Ali Ahmeti launched a guerrilla war against the Macedonian authorities.
The guerrillas said they wanted equal rights within Macedonia but many Macedonians believed that their real aim was to partition the country as a first step towards creating a Greater Albania.
The conflict was contained. While tens of thousands if not many more died in the other Yugoslav wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, only some 200 died in Macedonia.
Fresh start
Under huge international pressure the conflict ended with a peace deal signed in the lakeside resort of Ohrid in August 2001.
Mr Ahmeti exchanged his fatigues for a suit and entered parliament. Along with the Macedonian Social Democrats his party is in now in government. Major strides have been made since 2001 in implementing the Ohrid deal. An agreement on redrawing municipal boundaries was one of the last major pieces of work left to be done.
Few in Macedonia disagree that the old system, with 123 municipalities, many extremely small, needs to be scrapped. The new plan foresees 83 councils.
The problem, says political analyst Saso Ordanoski, is that the two main Macedonian and Albanian ruling parties are widely perceived as having "gerrymandered" the borders of the new municipalities for their own party benefits.
Macedonia's Deputy Prime Minister Radmila Sekerinska denies this, but admits mistakes were made.
"We mishandled the whole negotiating process," she says. "We played this as if we were amateurs."
Test for government
The latest opinion polls show that enough people will vote to make the referendum legally valid and that the new municipal boundary law will not pass, at least for the moment.
If that happens, Prime Minister Hari Kostov says that his government will resign.
However he also says he expects that less than half the electorate will vote and thus, legally, the referendum will be deemed as having failed.
He also does not expect a return to conflict.
If the referendum does pass though the result will be months of political wrangling and possibly new elections.
If the referendum fails to stop the new boundaries being drawn then polls show that large numbers of people are prepared to take to the streets to protest.
Rumours abound that Macedonian and ethnic Albanian militias are forming, but there is no hard evidence of this.
I caught up with Mr Ahmeti close to the town of Struga, where he was in conclave with leading party members.
Today Struga has a slight Macedonian majority. Under the new boundary rules it would have a slight Albanian majority.
Struga's Macedonian mayor says he will declare the town an independent republic rather than submit to that.
Mr Ahmeti says he thinks the time for war in Macedonia has passed but adds, ominously, that he would not remain "indifferent" if the referendum succeeded and the Ohrid peace process appeared to grind to a halt.
Political punishment
In Struga, Borce Joneski, a waiter, told me that he was backing the mayor.
He said he had lost his job in a state firm because, thanks to the Ohrid deal, it was taking on more Albanians. He and his wife were barely making ends meet, he said.
And this may be the rub, the real reason why many go out to vote - to punish their leaders.
While many Macedonians believe that their government, under foreign pressure, is constantly "giving in" to Albanian demands and that the new municipalities are a step towards partition, many are also deeply fed up with the economic situation of the country.
Average household income is 243 euros a month, more than one-third of the population is unemployed and one-third live below the poverty line. One recent poll showed that 56.4% of the population would emigrate if they could.
Many believe that Macedonia's borders will be more secure if and when it enters Nato and that the economy will recover when it begins accession talks to join the EU.
Now, though, the referendum means that Macedonia is losing the valuable time it needs to prepare for both organisations.
Tim Judah is the author of Kosovo: War and Revenge published by Yale Universty Press.
Alexander the Great must be rolling over in his grave.
If the Macedonian Slavs come under too much grief from Muslim Albanians you can bet your life Bulgaria will charge in to help Macedonia and there will be a Balkan war.
Well Alex was part of the Greek ruling class, ruling over the semi-Greek (if at all) Macedonians
Ture Macedonians are Slavic, not Greek, they speak a language virtually identical to Bulgarian.
True, but he was from Macedonia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_the_great
"they speak a language virtually identical to Bulgarian."
I wouldn't say "virtually identical" but similar. Than on the other hand most slavic languages are similar. But that's not the point with my posting of this article.
Macedonia is "boiling" so to say. The country is under a lot of international pressure to accept the Ohrid decentralisation plan yet the Macedonian community is very much against it. Having a referendum on the issue is the democratic way to deal with it, yet many international organisations are "warning" Macedonia that the results could have serious consequences for Macedonia. As to Bulgaria helping out if the situation gets serious, I tend to agree with you as they have said on several occasions that they support the Macedonians. But than at the same time they did give in to NATO when NATO was bombing Serbia during Clinton's Kosovo war. I guess only time will tell.
Alexander effectively brought to completion the assimilation of the ancient Macedonians to the Greek world. Since then, "Macedonia" has been a geographical, not an ethnic, term. Today's Slav Macedonians are descendants of Slavs who settled in the area from the 6th century AD and have nothing to do with Alexander. Furthermore, only 40% the geographic area of Macedonia is part of the current state FYRO-Macedonia; 10% is in Bulgaria and 50% in Greece. In fact Alexander's ancient capital is in the Greek part.
Bulgarian is my second language, it's very, very close. Reading Macedonian is far easier than understanding a Macedon for me. It's my mother's first language and she has no problem understanding them.
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