Posted on 10/18/2004 5:08:02 PM PDT by ambrose
Bush Emerges From Debates With a Slim Lead Over Kerry, Poll Shows
By Richard Morin and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, October 18, 2004; 7:15 PM
President Bush has emerged from the presidential debates holding a slender lead over Democratic nominee John F. Kerry, and despite the challenger's strong performances, the nationally televised confrontations did not significantly change the way voters view the two candidates, according to a new Washington Post survey.
-snip-
The poll found that Bush receives 50 percent of the likely vote while Kerry gets 47 percent. Independent Ralph Nader is at 1 percent. Days before the first debate on Sept. 30, Bush held a six-point lead among likely voters. Among all registered voters, Bush leads by a single percentage point in the latest poll. In 13 battleground states, the race is also tight but it is Kerry with a 50 percent to 46 percent lead over Bush.
-snip-
Bush's job approval -- another significant barometer of an incumbent's political health -- stands at 54 percent, compared to 53 percent in late September. In the modern era, all incumbent presidents with approval ratings above 50 percent have won their reelection bids. Similarly, Bush's personal standing with voters remains exactly where it was before the debates: 53 percent of all likely voters say they have a favorable impression of the president.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
I find it comical that CBS shows Bush's JA at 44%. I also noticed that Survey USA shows Kerry +1 in FL. I tried to read SUSA's release, but it looked funky. What gives?
Survey USA always has OH and FL for Kerry, or tied between them. I could never understand that. I'm not too sure about SurveyUSA either. Yeah and CBS/NY Times are the only poll to have Bush JA that low where as everyone else even the Dem polls have Bush at 51% or above.
Bush JA at 54?? Sounds quit high compared to other polls. Even President Reagan's approval was not much higher and he got reelected with 59% of the popular vote and 97% of the EV.
Kerry led by (I believe) 13% in the "battlegrounds" just a few days ago.
54% approval rating?
Lord, I hope this is true ;-)
Forget all Polls. Just watch and listen to Kerry and the M.S.M. They are desperate. You are now witnessing the beginning of the end for Ketchup boy.
I just don't believe the smaller "battleground" samples are particularly valid.
The job approval rating is the most important element in the polls for an incumbent President. If the incumbent is over 51% JA rating; it's a good sign for reelection.
Neither do I... but Chicken Little types were on here the other day in abject hysteria over Bush being down by over 10 in the battlegrounds. Now that it is only 4, I hear nothing but the sound of chirping crickets on this thread...
CBS and the New York Times must poll their staff.
Ahhh, yes. I should have known. :-)
I think Kerry's social security attacks are taking a toll. SUSA had Bush up 5 a couple of weeks ago. The Bush response is inneffectual as usual.
Bush is only down 4 in the battlegrounds? Gee no wonder the Dems are so panicky.
Also, if you go to the site to read the full article, there's a poll showing President Bush up 50% to 47%.
This recent batch of Survey USA polls were all taken over the weekend (last Fri,Sat,Sun) so they're all showing the same skewing we see in tracking polls (Zogby, WaPo) over the weekend. It seems like the friday night to sunday night polls find a lot less Republicans at home. That's the probable reason why the batch showing Kerry within 3 in North Carolina(!!) and within 5 in Arkansas(!!) just don't seem to be believable at all.
Yeah, Republicans have a social life.
Democrats just have a socialism life.
Great, encouraging post. Bump.
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