Demographics -- Bush vs. KerryBased on Registered Voters |
Oct 14-16 |
Oct 9-10 |
Oct 1-3 |
Sep 24-26 |
|||||
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Total |
46 |
50 |
48 |
48 |
48 |
49 |
41 |
54 |
Gender |
||||||||
Men |
40 |
56 |
44 |
53 |
45 |
54 |
40 |
56 |
Women |
51 |
44 |
52 |
43 |
51 |
45 |
42 |
53 |
Race |
||||||||
Whites |
40 |
56 |
41 |
55 |
43 |
54 |
36 |
60 |
Non-whites |
69 |
23 |
74 |
20 |
68 |
29 |
62 |
30 |
Age |
||||||||
18-49 |
45 |
51 |
47 |
48 |
47 |
50 |
40 |
56 |
50-64 |
46 |
50 |
48 |
49 |
46 |
52 |
47 |
48 |
65+ |
48 |
45 |
50 |
48 |
52 |
43 |
41 |
55 |
Region |
||||||||
East |
54 |
42 |
55 |
42 |
54 |
42 |
51 |
46 |
Midwest |
44 |
50 |
43 |
52 |
58 |
39 |
39 |
54 |
South |
41 |
56 |
45 |
51 |
37 |
61 |
39 |
57 |
West |
47 |
49 |
50 |
46 |
47 |
51 |
38 |
59 |
Education |
||||||||
Post-graduate |
54 |
42 |
61 |
36 |
62 |
37 |
51 |
45 |
College graduate |
35 |
63 |
47 |
51 |
44 |
54 |
39 |
58 |
Some college |
43 |
52 |
44 |
51 |
43 |
55 |
40 |
57 |
High school or less |
49 |
46 |
46 |
50 |
48 |
48 |
39 |
54 |
Income |
||||||||
$75,000 or more |
43 |
55 |
41 |
55 |
50 |
48 |
37 |
59 |
$50,000-$74,999 |
39 |
60 |
39 |
58 |
38 |
61 |
43 |
55 |
$30,000-$49,999 |
47 |
48 |
51 |
47 |
46 |
52 |
42 |
55 |
Less than $30,000 |
54 |
39 |
59 |
36 |
58 |
35 |
46 |
47 |
Ideology |
||||||||
Conservative |
19 |
79 |
24 |
73 |
23 |
75 |
21 |
75 |
Moderate |
54 |
39 |
54 |
43 |
57 |
40 |
49 |
47 |
Liberal |
85 |
11 |
84 |
10 |
81 |
14 |
85 |
13 |
Partisanship |
||||||||
Republicans |
9 |
89 |
6 |
92 |
3 |
94 |
6 |
93 |
Independents |
48 |
45 |
50 |
42 |
54 |
40 |
46 |
48 |
Democrats |
85 |
11 |
90 |
8 |
89 |
10 |
85 |
10 |
Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry vs. NaderBased on Registered Voters |
October 14-16 |
October 9-10 |
October 1-3 |
|||||||
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Total |
46 |
49 |
1 |
48 |
48 |
1 |
47 |
49 |
1 |
Gender |
|||||||||
Men |
40 |
54 |
2 |
43 |
53 |
2 |
43 |
53 |
2 |
Women |
50 |
44 |
1 |
51 |
43 |
2 |
50 |
45 |
2 |
Race |
|||||||||
Whites |
40 |
56 |
1 |
40 |
55 |
2 |
42 |
54 |
2 |
Non-whites |
67 |
21 |
4 |
74 |
19 |
2 |
67 |
28 |
3 |
Age |
|||||||||
18-49 |
45 |
50 |
2 |
46 |
47 |
2 |
46 |
50 |
3 |
50-64 |
45 |
49 |
2 |
47 |
49 |
1 |
45 |
51 |
3 |
65+ |
48 |
44 |
1 |
50 |
47 |
1 |
52 |
43 |
1 |
Region |
|||||||||
East |
54 |
41 |
1 |
54 |
40 |
3 |
51 |
42 |
4 |
Midwest |
44 |
49 |
1 |
41 |
53 |
1 |
58 |
38 |
-- |
South |
40 |
56 |
1 |
45 |
50 |
2 |
36 |
59 |
4 |
West |
45 |
48 |
3 |
5 |
46 |
-- |
46 |
50 |
2 |
Education |
|||||||||
Post-graduate |
53 |
41 |
2 |
59 |
36 |
2 |
60 |
36 |
3 |
College graduate |
35 |
62 |
1 |
47 |
51 |
1 |
43 |
54 |
1 |
Some college |
43 |
52 |
1 |
44 |
49 |
2 |
42 |
55 |
1 |
High school or less |
48 |
44 |
2 |
45 |
50 |
2 |
47 |
46 |
4 |
Income |
|||||||||
$75,000 or more |
42 |
55 |
1 |
40 |
55 |
2 |
49 |
46 |
4 |
$50,000-$74,999 |
38 |
60 |
1 |
39 |
57 |
1 |
38 |
61 |
1 |
$30,000-$49,999 |
47 |
47 |
2 |
50 |
46 |
3 |
44 |
52 |
3 |
Less than $30,000 |
54 |
37 |
2 |
59 |
35 |
* |
58 |
34 |
2 |
Ideology |
|||||||||
Conservative |
19 |
79 |
* |
24 |
72 |
1 |
22 |
74 |
2 |
Moderate |
54 |
38 |
2 |
53 |
42 |
3 |
56 |
39 |
3 |
Liberal |
85 |
9 |
3 |
83 |
10 |
2 |
81 |
13 |
3 |
Partisanship |
|||||||||
Republicans |
9 |
89 |
* |
6 |
92 |
* |
4 |
93 |
1 |
Independents |
47 |
42 |
5 |
49 |
40 |
4 |
53 |
39 |
4 |
Democrats |
85 |
11 |
-- |
89 |
8 |
1 |
88 |
10 |
1 |
Based on National Adults
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
% |
% |
% |
Overall |
51 |
47 | 2 |
Bush (Red) States |
|
|
|
2004 Oct 14-16 |
64 |
34 |
2 |
2004 Oct 11-14 |
55 |
42 |
3 |
2004 Oct 9-10 |
54 |
43 |
3 |
Gore (Blue) States | |||
2004 Oct 14-16 | 41 | 58 | 1 |
2004 Oct 11-14 | 42 | 56 | 2 |
2004 Oct 9-10 | 42 | 52 | 4 |
Up For Grab States | |||
2004 Oct 14-16 | 48 | 50 | 2 |
2004 Oct 11-14 | 48 | 48 | 4 |
2004 Oct 9-10 | 44 | 52 | 4 |
Based on Registered Voters
Kerry |
|
Neither (vol.) |
Other |
No |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Bush (Red) States |
|||||
2004 Oct 14-16 |
34 |
62 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
2004 Oct 14-16 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
2004 Oct 9-10 |
41 |
55 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
2004 Oct 1-3 |
38 |
60 |
* |
1 |
1 |
Gore (Blue) States | |||||
2004 Oct 14-16 | 59 | 38 | * | * | 3 |
2004 Oct 11-14 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
2004 Oct 9-10 | 55 | 41 | 3 | -- | 1 |
Up For Grab States | |||||
2004 Oct 14-16 | 50 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
2004 Oct 11-14 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
2004 Oct 9-10 | 47 | 47 | 1 | -- | 5 |
Gallup Ping
FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.
ping
Oversampling of Republicans in this poll.
In the RV internals, Bush is up by 80 among Republicans, Kerry up 74 among Dems, that's a 2-point edge for Bush. Kerry up 3 among independents. If the GOP and Dems were sampled equally, Bush would be up by 1 point. Instead he's up 4 points. As others have said, don't trust the Gallup poll or the Newsweek poll, both have been all over the map due to sloppiness.
Folks....Bush is not polling that strong in the "Up for grabs" states... he's trailing 50 - 45.
He have our work cut out for us.
Bbbbb..ut..but..bbuut... Kerry won all three debates!
Didn't you read that or hear about it on the news?!?!?
These polls are buggin me. Can't decide who to believe. These polls are probably just as good as me walking down the street asking random people who they are voting for. But otherwise I am happy with the results. But didn't these polls have Bush up over Gore a bit and Gore still won the pop vote? That's why I can't put too much faith in these.
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
For instance, here in Florida, the "non-partisan" registration drives by several "non-profit" organizations have resulted in registering almost exclusively Democrats.
Former registration driver workers have complained to the media that their Republican registrations were trashed.
Therefore, now you have many Republicans thinking they are registered to vote, when in fact, they will find out the hard way they were deceived. Instead of being honest about not accepting Republican registrations, these "non-profit" organizations were very clever to keep Republicans from appearing in the registration rosters.
And that's just one the dirty tricks covered in the local news. Don't get me started with the people who are voting for Kerry both in New York and Florida, or the ones voting several times in Florida by registering to vote with multiple addresses.
I'm glad to see that Bush is ahead of Kerry, but I'm having less and less confidence in polls. There is a psychological factor in seeing your candidate up or down in the polls that could either encourage or discourage voter turn out. If President Bush doesn't win the battleground states, it doesn't matter if he wins the popular vote. From what I see, Bush could very easily lose in those states.
Kind of curious that in this poll, Nader's inclusion seems to help Kerry more than it does GWB. Harumph!
Perhaps the people voting for Bush did not "perceive" that Kerry won all three debates.
Kerry won the first.
The second was tied.
Bush won the third hands down.
It's 9:45 PM eastern. I just heard CNN report these same numbers with KERRY ahead! What the h$#@!!
Oregon: Two-Way Horse Race DemographicsBased on Registered Voters |
Oct 15-18 |
||
Kerry |
Bush |
|
% |
% |
|
Total |
52 |
45 |
Gender |
||
Men |
48 |
49 |
Women |
55 |
42 |
Race |
||
Whites |
52 |
46 |
Age |
||
18-34 |
53 |
47 |
35-54 |
52 |
43 |
55+ |
52 |
46 |
Region |
||
Multnomah county |
73 |
24 |
Northwest/Pacific coast |
51 |
44 |
Suburbs/capital area |
53 |
44 |
South and west |
32 |
65 |
Education |
||
Post-graduate |
69 |
29 |
College graduate |
48 |
51 |
Some college |
50 |
47 |
High school or less |
50 |
47 |
Income |
||
$75,000 or more |
46 |
53 |
$40,000-$74,999 |
52 |
47 |
Less than $40,000 |
58 |
40 |
Ideology |
||
Conservative |
17 |
82 |
Moderate |
61 |
37 |
Liberal |
95 |
4 |
Partisanship |
||
Republicans |
5 |
94 |
Independents |
53 |
41 |
Democrats |
92 |
8 |
How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president -- quite a lot, or only a little?
Quite a lot |
Some (vol.) |
Only a little |
None (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
Registered Voters |
|||||
2004 Oct 15-18 |
91% |
2 |
6 |
* |
1 |
Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for [ROTATED: John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?
As of today, do you lean more toward [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?
Kerry/ |
Bush/ |
Neither/other/ |
|
Likely Voters |
|||
2004 Oct 15-18 |
53% |
45 |
2 |
Likely Voters |
|||
2004 Oct 15-18 |
52% |
45 |
3 |
As you may know, there is a proposal on the ballot to amend the Oregon state constitution so that only marriages between a man and a woman would be recognized as legal and valid by the state. If the election were held today, would you vote for or against this proposal?
For |
Against |
Not vote (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
Likely Voters |
||||
2004 Oct 15-18 |
50% |
44 |
1 |
5 |
Likely Voters |
||||
2004 Oct 15-18 |
51% |
42 |
* |
7 |