Gallup: Bush Gains After Debates [Bush 52% Kerry 44%; JA at 51%; with internals]

Gallup News Service ^ | October 18, 2004 | Frank Newport

[mplsconservative]

British Democrat

Since October 18, 2004

Hey troll. Are you familiar with the term ZOT?

If you're not, you soon will be.

Here kitty, kitty!

[massgopguy]

Debates are like Pre-season football games and thus the Pats and 'Dubya remain undefeated. The Constitution makes no mention of Polls in The Articles. But there is an Electoral System provided for by those brilliant bastards!

[ride the whirlwind]

Kind of curious that in this poll, Nader's inclusion seems to help Kerry more than it does GWB. Harumph!

[snarkytart]

>>>Gallup explicitly rejects the use of party identification as a demographic parameter. While one may disagree with their methodology, Gallop is not sloppy.<<<


Exactly, Gallup does not go by party affiliation so how could they have over sampled republicans.

[BushisTheMan]

Perhaps the people voting for Bush did not "perceive" that Kerry won all three debates.

Kerry won the first.
The second was tied.
Bush won the third hands down.

[unspun]

The Gallup answers in "up for grab states" conflict, between "approval" and "vote." Any explanation?

[RWR8189]

Typo when I entered the info into a table.

That should be reversed.

[Graymatter]

It's 9:45 PM eastern. I just heard CNN report these same numbers with KERRY ahead! What the h$#@!!

[RWR8189]

I'm sending it to you here because FReepmail can't support HTML

Oregon: Two-Way Horse Race Demographics Based on Registered Voters

	Oct 15-18
	Kerry	Bush
	%	%
Total	52	45
Gender
Men	48	49
Women	55	42
Race
Whites	52	46
Age
18-34	53	47
35-54	52	43
55+	52	46
Region
Multnomah county	73	24
Northwest/Pacific coast	51	44
Suburbs/capital area	53	44
South and west	32	65
Education
Post-graduate	69	29
College graduate	48	51
Some college	50	47
High school or less	50	47
Income
$75,000 or more	46	53
$40,000-$74,999	52	47
Less than $40,000	58	40
Ideology
Conservative	17	82
Moderate	61	37
Liberal	95	4
Partisanship
Republicans	5	94
Independents	53	41
Democrats	92	8

How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president -- quite a lot, or only a little?

	Quite a lot	Some (vol.)	Only a little	None (vol.)	No opinion
Registered Voters
2004 Oct 15-18	91%	2	6	*	1

Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for – [ROTATED: John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?

As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

	Kerry/ Edwards	Bush/ Cheney	Neither/other/ no opinion
Likely Voters
2004 Oct 15-18	53%	45	2
Likely Voters
2004 Oct 15-18	52%	45	3

As you may know, there is a proposal on the ballot to amend the Oregon state constitution so that only marriages between a man and a woman would be recognized as legal and valid by the state. If the election were held today, would you vote for or against this proposal?

	For	Against	Not vote (vol.)	No opinion
Likely Voters
2004 Oct 15-18	50%	44	1	5
Likely Voters
2004 Oct 15-18	51%	42	*	7

[Future Useless Eater]

*

[Jimmyclyde]

Whenever I see things like “19% of people who call themselves ‘conservative’ are going to vote for Kerry”, it makes me want to hunt them down and quote Inigo Montoya, from “The Princess Bride”:

"My name is Inigo Montoya, you killed my father prepare to die."