Posted on 10/18/2004 9:56:01 AM PDT by RWR8189
Demographics -- Bush vs. KerryBased on Registered Voters |
Oct 14-16 |
Oct 9-10 |
Oct 1-3 |
Sep 24-26 |
|||||
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Total |
46 |
50 |
48 |
48 |
48 |
49 |
41 |
54 |
Gender |
||||||||
Men |
40 |
56 |
44 |
53 |
45 |
54 |
40 |
56 |
Women |
51 |
44 |
52 |
43 |
51 |
45 |
42 |
53 |
Race |
||||||||
Whites |
40 |
56 |
41 |
55 |
43 |
54 |
36 |
60 |
Non-whites |
69 |
23 |
74 |
20 |
68 |
29 |
62 |
30 |
Age |
||||||||
18-49 |
45 |
51 |
47 |
48 |
47 |
50 |
40 |
56 |
50-64 |
46 |
50 |
48 |
49 |
46 |
52 |
47 |
48 |
65+ |
48 |
45 |
50 |
48 |
52 |
43 |
41 |
55 |
Region |
||||||||
East |
54 |
42 |
55 |
42 |
54 |
42 |
51 |
46 |
Midwest |
44 |
50 |
43 |
52 |
58 |
39 |
39 |
54 |
South |
41 |
56 |
45 |
51 |
37 |
61 |
39 |
57 |
West |
47 |
49 |
50 |
46 |
47 |
51 |
38 |
59 |
Education |
||||||||
Post-graduate |
54 |
42 |
61 |
36 |
62 |
37 |
51 |
45 |
College graduate |
35 |
63 |
47 |
51 |
44 |
54 |
39 |
58 |
Some college |
43 |
52 |
44 |
51 |
43 |
55 |
40 |
57 |
High school or less |
49 |
46 |
46 |
50 |
48 |
48 |
39 |
54 |
Income |
||||||||
$75,000 or more |
43 |
55 |
41 |
55 |
50 |
48 |
37 |
59 |
$50,000-$74,999 |
39 |
60 |
39 |
58 |
38 |
61 |
43 |
55 |
$30,000-$49,999 |
47 |
48 |
51 |
47 |
46 |
52 |
42 |
55 |
Less than $30,000 |
54 |
39 |
59 |
36 |
58 |
35 |
46 |
47 |
Ideology |
||||||||
Conservative |
19 |
79 |
24 |
73 |
23 |
75 |
21 |
75 |
Moderate |
54 |
39 |
54 |
43 |
57 |
40 |
49 |
47 |
Liberal |
85 |
11 |
84 |
10 |
81 |
14 |
85 |
13 |
Partisanship |
||||||||
Republicans |
9 |
89 |
6 |
92 |
3 |
94 |
6 |
93 |
Independents |
48 |
45 |
50 |
42 |
54 |
40 |
46 |
48 |
Democrats |
85 |
11 |
90 |
8 |
89 |
10 |
85 |
10 |
Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry vs. NaderBased on Registered Voters |
October 14-16 |
October 9-10 |
October 1-3 |
|||||||
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
Kerry |
Bush |
Nader |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Total |
46 |
49 |
1 |
48 |
48 |
1 |
47 |
49 |
1 |
Gender |
|||||||||
Men |
40 |
54 |
2 |
43 |
53 |
2 |
43 |
53 |
2 |
Women |
50 |
44 |
1 |
51 |
43 |
2 |
50 |
45 |
2 |
Race |
|||||||||
Whites |
40 |
56 |
1 |
40 |
55 |
2 |
42 |
54 |
2 |
Non-whites |
67 |
21 |
4 |
74 |
19 |
2 |
67 |
28 |
3 |
Age |
|||||||||
18-49 |
45 |
50 |
2 |
46 |
47 |
2 |
46 |
50 |
3 |
50-64 |
45 |
49 |
2 |
47 |
49 |
1 |
45 |
51 |
3 |
65+ |
48 |
44 |
1 |
50 |
47 |
1 |
52 |
43 |
1 |
Region |
|||||||||
East |
54 |
41 |
1 |
54 |
40 |
3 |
51 |
42 |
4 |
Midwest |
44 |
49 |
1 |
41 |
53 |
1 |
58 |
38 |
-- |
South |
40 |
56 |
1 |
45 |
50 |
2 |
36 |
59 |
4 |
West |
45 |
48 |
3 |
5 |
46 |
-- |
46 |
50 |
2 |
Education |
|||||||||
Post-graduate |
53 |
41 |
2 |
59 |
36 |
2 |
60 |
36 |
3 |
College graduate |
35 |
62 |
1 |
47 |
51 |
1 |
43 |
54 |
1 |
Some college |
43 |
52 |
1 |
44 |
49 |
2 |
42 |
55 |
1 |
High school or less |
48 |
44 |
2 |
45 |
50 |
2 |
47 |
46 |
4 |
Income |
|||||||||
$75,000 or more |
42 |
55 |
1 |
40 |
55 |
2 |
49 |
46 |
4 |
$50,000-$74,999 |
38 |
60 |
1 |
39 |
57 |
1 |
38 |
61 |
1 |
$30,000-$49,999 |
47 |
47 |
2 |
50 |
46 |
3 |
44 |
52 |
3 |
Less than $30,000 |
54 |
37 |
2 |
59 |
35 |
* |
58 |
34 |
2 |
Ideology |
|||||||||
Conservative |
19 |
79 |
* |
24 |
72 |
1 |
22 |
74 |
2 |
Moderate |
54 |
38 |
2 |
53 |
42 |
3 |
56 |
39 |
3 |
Liberal |
85 |
9 |
3 |
83 |
10 |
2 |
81 |
13 |
3 |
Partisanship |
|||||||||
Republicans |
9 |
89 |
* |
6 |
92 |
* |
4 |
93 |
1 |
Independents |
47 |
42 |
5 |
49 |
40 |
4 |
53 |
39 |
4 |
Democrats |
85 |
11 |
-- |
89 |
8 |
1 |
88 |
10 |
1 |
Based on National Adults
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
% |
% |
% |
Overall |
51 |
47 | 2 |
Bush (Red) States |
|
|
|
2004 Oct 14-16 |
64 |
34 |
2 |
2004 Oct 11-14 |
55 |
42 |
3 |
2004 Oct 9-10 |
54 |
43 |
3 |
Gore (Blue) States | |||
2004 Oct 14-16 | 41 | 58 | 1 |
2004 Oct 11-14 | 42 | 56 | 2 |
2004 Oct 9-10 | 42 | 52 | 4 |
Up For Grab States | |||
2004 Oct 14-16 | 48 | 50 | 2 |
2004 Oct 11-14 | 48 | 48 | 4 |
2004 Oct 9-10 | 44 | 52 | 4 |
Based on Registered Voters
Kerry |
|
Neither (vol.) |
Other |
No |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Bush (Red) States |
|||||
2004 Oct 14-16 |
34 |
62 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
2004 Oct 14-16 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
2004 Oct 9-10 |
41 |
55 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
2004 Oct 1-3 |
38 |
60 |
* |
1 |
1 |
Gore (Blue) States | |||||
2004 Oct 14-16 | 59 | 38 | * | * | 3 |
2004 Oct 11-14 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
2004 Oct 9-10 | 55 | 41 | 3 | -- | 1 |
Up For Grab States | |||||
2004 Oct 14-16 | 50 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
2004 Oct 11-14 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
2004 Oct 9-10 | 47 | 47 | 1 | -- | 5 |
Gallup Ping
FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.
ping
Oversampling of Republicans in this poll.
In the RV internals, Bush is up by 80 among Republicans, Kerry up 74 among Dems, that's a 2-point edge for Bush. Kerry up 3 among independents. If the GOP and Dems were sampled equally, Bush would be up by 1 point. Instead he's up 4 points. As others have said, don't trust the Gallup poll or the Newsweek poll, both have been all over the map due to sloppiness.
Folks....Bush is not polling that strong in the "Up for grabs" states... he's trailing 50 - 45.
He have our work cut out for us.
Bbbbb..ut..but..bbuut... Kerry won all three debates!
Didn't you read that or hear about it on the news?!?!?
These polls are buggin me. Can't decide who to believe. These polls are probably just as good as me walking down the street asking random people who they are voting for. But otherwise I am happy with the results. But didn't these polls have Bush up over Gore a bit and Gore still won the pop vote? That's why I can't put too much faith in these.
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
When you watch how the candidates are behaving, I come to the conclusion that Bush is ahead.
Kerry has dropped to his lowest probability percentage in the winner take all presidential market at IEM in quite awhile: Bush 61.9, Kerry 36.9
For instance, here in Florida, the "non-partisan" registration drives by several "non-profit" organizations have resulted in registering almost exclusively Democrats.
Former registration driver workers have complained to the media that their Republican registrations were trashed.
Therefore, now you have many Republicans thinking they are registered to vote, when in fact, they will find out the hard way they were deceived. Instead of being honest about not accepting Republican registrations, these "non-profit" organizations were very clever to keep Republicans from appearing in the registration rosters.
And that's just one the dirty tricks covered in the local news. Don't get me started with the people who are voting for Kerry both in New York and Florida, or the ones voting several times in Florida by registering to vote with multiple addresses.
Yes--but those polls were taken before the DUI scandal dropped. Internals showed that Bush sank like a stone in those few days between the DUI coming out and the election. It also depressed turn-out of his base severely.
In a National poll its very possible for Bush to be ahead, but no win the electoral vote. It happened in 2000, the difference was this; at that time, there was peace and the economy was good (recession hadn't started yet) Gore was a sitting VP, all the conditions were right at that moment for Gore to win.
I think that Kerry is not very likable, so Bush is having a much stronger showing, especially in the strong Bush states. Kerry isn't doing nearly as well in several DEM states that Gore won, but he's doing enough to win.
Net / net - Bush could take the popular vote and by bigger numbers than Gore did, but not the electoral.
The battleground state numbers are the most important numbers right now, not the national numbers.
LOL
When the party ID numbers tend to swing by 2 standard deviations in each polling sample, I'd argue that they're sloppy. That implies an element of inadvertent selection bias based on when and where they make their calls.
I'm glad to see that Bush is ahead of Kerry, but I'm having less and less confidence in polls. There is a psychological factor in seeing your candidate up or down in the polls that could either encourage or discourage voter turn out. If President Bush doesn't win the battleground states, it doesn't matter if he wins the popular vote. From what I see, Bush could very easily lose in those states.
That was a very troll-like statement.
We had a revolution and we do not care what the Brits think, what Europe thinks, what terrorists think, what communists think or what enemies of America think.
But, turnabout is fair play: elect the Tories, Britain!
Ta.
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