Newsweek: Too Close to Call (But it's 50-44 likely voters)!

Newsweek ^ | 10-16-04 | Newsweek

[handy]

Results based on likely voters (as opposed to all registered voters) give Bush the edge, with Bush-Cheney pulling 50 percent of the vote and Kerry-Edwards drawing 44 percent in a three-way race (Nader still gets 1 percent).

[CyberAnt]

But .. we all know that if it was Kerry who was leading 50-44, Newsweek would declare him the winner of the election.

[Owen]

Yes, I do not doubt that Zogby words his question that way, but in the other newsweek thread there is an extensive quote from Gallup saying that they, too, get their party affiliation data by "self identification".

In all cases it is self identified because the official registration lists may not have phone numbers on them, and because some states register people with no party identification. That's not the issue. The issue is how is the question worded:

"Are you registered Rep, Dem or Ind?" A person from a non partisan registration state would not be able to answer this.

or

"Given politics today, do you most identify with Dems, Reps or Inds?"

All can answer this second question. And it would be a valid explanation for why partisan mix varies so widely in these polls. People change their attitudes more readily than they can go down to the county courthouse and change their registration.

[Cooter]

At least her last name wasn't spelled Cooters....

And what's wrong with that?
;^)

[Cuttnhorse]

I sure admire you folks who lurk at DU and report back...it's fun knowing how upset they are. I took a look once and laughed out loud just reading their goofy take on everything.

Cheers

[MNJohnnie]

All can answer this second question. And it would be a valid explanation for why partisan mix varies so widely in these polls. People change their attitudes more readily than they can go down to the county courthouse and change their registration.


AGAIN. You are missing the point. The POINT is POLL RESULTS vary based on HOW THE POLLSTER WEIGHTS THE POLLS. If the poll has MORE SELF IDENTIFIED Democrats and STILL favors BUSH that indicates VERY SERIOUS trouble for the Kerry Campaign. If a state has partisan registration or NOT is totally and WHOLLY irrelevant to THAT point. As I pointed out, WHEN the story was "Bush leads race" they counted MORE SELF IDENTIFIED Republicans then Democrats and Bush had a double digit lead. After the 1st Debate, THEY OVER SAMPLED DEMOCRATS to show "Kerry surging in POLLS". Whether or not they are officially registered WITH a party is COMPLETELY irrelevant! A SIGNIFICANT portion of each candidates vote will be based SOLELY on people who vote for WHOMEVER their Party nominates. If Newsweek and Time OVER Sampled DEMOCRAT LEANING voters and STILL show Kerry behind, that is REALLY bad news for Kerry.

[Jim Noble]

Fifty is a very important number.

[handy]

What is your take on the RCP poll averages @ Real Clear politics?

[Mister Mellow]

Interesting stats in that article:

Gay marriage (41 to 39 percent in Bush’s favor)
Abortion (44 to 42 percent in Bush’s favor)

"Kerry is less likely to be seen as someone who can be trusted to make the right calls in an international crisis (47 percent, down four points and now lagging Bush’s 53 percent)."

Obviously Bush has commanding leads (according to the dubious MSM poll) in the War on Terror, and Iraq, which rank as the two most important issues at 26% and 20% respectively. While Kerry has only a slight edge over Bush on the economy (Rasmussen would disagree): 48 to 45.

In other words, after four debates and a national convention these candidates still have not effectively made their case for election other than the loony fringe support (always at least 35% will support anything with demo on the nametag), and a fraction of duped, mislead heartland Americans (8-10%); well then they are in trouble.

I don't mean to sound insensitive but this has now whetted my appetite to know what are the QUALITY of the people backing Bush and the quality of those backing Kerry. For some reason I suspect that Bush has heartland America in his hands and Kerry has college professors, under-25s with no life direction, and the likes.

Just a thought...

[irish guard]

absolutely nothing wrong with that...in fact, I love cooter...hehehe....oh man....now i'm gonna get banned for sure....

[MNJohnnie]

"What is your take on the RCP poll averages @ Real Clear politics? "



Kerry's peaked. Oh we will have a wobble in the last week leading up to the election as the squishy middle takes one last look at Kerry but it is over. The electorate played footsie with him because of all the garbage the Leftist Dinosaur media helped the DNC 527 Spin machines throw at Bush. They have been sold on the notion that Bush is BAD FOR THEM, but once they got a good look at Kerry's "60's Hippy in a business suit" mindset, they said to themselves "NOPE, can't trust Kerry to protect us. We sure would like to go back to a pre-911 posture but that is just wishful thinking." Once again the American people have been weighted in the balance and one again, they are choosing the right course rather then the easy course. Potential enemies should really take note. All the garbage the merchants of hate, like Bin Laden and Saddam, feed them about America are just lies. All the noise about how decadent, weak willed, unwilling to bear burdens or suffer casualties, how weak and self-absorbed we are, are just lies. When push come to shove, Americans are still the world's most dangerous people. American's Enemies should take note of what is going to happen 11-02-04 and tremble. "Don't tread on me" is STILL tattooed on America's heart.

[ClintonBeGone]

Wax on, wax off.

[tazannie]

Just picked this up from du:

liberal N proud (1000+ posts) Sat Oct-16-04 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #5

9. I hope so, I need a pick me up after canvassing


I must have happened along some people that have been brain washed or some damn thing.
I got the rudest nastiest receptions today. I had to quit for the day. I am burnt out, toast.
People slammed the door on my face, one lady started to yell at me about the Lesbian remark. I was just exhausted.
I hit 30 homes today and the closest thing to positive I had was the lady who felt it was a private matter.
It got to the point that I was hoping no one was home.
My other experiences were just the opposite, I was shocked

[handy]

American's Enemies should take note of what is going to happen 11-02-04 and tremble. "Don't tread on me" is STILL tattooed on America's heart.

Wow. I just wanted to know if you thought averaging the pools like RCP does was meaningful. Instead, you gave me goosebumps. :-)

[Freemyland]

"They're all gloom and doom over on DU. They've gone so far as to accuse Freepers of fixing the results. I'm just revelling in their despair!"

Hey, I think I've been on FR long enough to be included in the weekly poll fixing meetings. I'm just going to assume my invitation was lost in the mail.

[Intolerant in NJ]

50 to 44% - That's nothing -doesn't bother me a bit....

[BibleDoc]

I'm confused. I've been watching Fox News this evening, and they mentioned a Newsweek poll showing Bush up 48 to 46.

What am I missing?

[wardaddy]

ouch....that had to hurt for them to print that.

[fhlime]

Newsweed

Newsweep

Newswee

[okie01]

HOOEY ALERT!!!

"Bush has a clear advantage with women, who prefer him 49 percent to 43 percent. Kerry has a slight edge with men, 50 percent to 46 percent."

[okie01]

I've been watching Fox News this evening, and they mentioned a Newsweek poll showing Bush up 48 to 46.

What am I missing?

That's the split for registered voters, which Newsweek headlined.

The 50-44 split is for likely voters, which they buried in the text -- but is far more meaningful.

The growing separation between registered and likely suggests that the Democrat base is increasingly less enthusiastic about their man.