realclearpolitics.com has Florida leaning Bush, Pennsylvania leaning Kerry and Ohio as a tossup. They count 264 electoral votes for Bush, 220 for Kerry and 54 up for grabs.
http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html
Electoral-Vote.Com has it 280 Kerry / 254 Bush.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
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Thanks!