Posted on 10/10/2004 2:06:03 PM PDT by ambrose
Washington Post tracking poll 10/10: Bush pulling away from Kerry (51% to 46%)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
You said something very intriguing in your post:
And wait a day or two, the Swift Boat veterans have something up their sleeves...Hannity will announce it tomorrow.
Is this (a) your certain knowledge, (b) your suspicion, (c) a rumor, or (d) a fervent hope.
Please reply privately if confidence demands.
Careful. Compacency and voter fraud can flip this whole battle around to defeat for W. Hell, the Dems are lining up convicted felons to vote! Just what this country needs (/sarcasm).
Lurch will explain that when he made that statement, it was late at night and he was tired. What he really meant was not "nuisance," but just a "nuance" on terrorism.
But that is not the case. The presidency is not about who is the better debator. It is about who is the best leader. That is why, even though Kerry is perceived to have the upper hand in these debates (though Bush did much better in the second one), he is not making much of an impact with the electorate.
I do believe Kerry has done well in the debates simply because he did not make any major gaffes. Like Dukakis in the 1988 campaign when he gave that mechanical, passionless answer about how he still wouldn't support the death penalty, even if his wife was raped and murdered. Other than that question, Dukakis pretty much outdebated Bush Sr. But it didn't matter. The election isn't about who is the best debator or we would have an endless succession of dweebs serving as our president.
I think that presidential debates ought to be scrapped altogether. They do not serve any purpose anymore except as an opportunity for one candidate or the other to be snakebitten by a canned soundbite - like the one Bentsen laid on Dan Quayle. Or the one that Reagan laid on Mondale (about not holding his "youth and inexperience" against him).
The origin of candidates debating each other harkens back to an earlier time, before there was a mass media and when most Americans never had an opportunity to see or hear a presidential candidate. Back in the 1850s, Lincoln and Douglas would debate each other in front of huge crowds, for example.
In today's world, the presidential candidates get plenty of exposure and by the time the "debates" start in October, people are already tired of them.
I wish President Bush had refused to debate Kerry. He would have taken a lot of flack for it and he would have opened himself up to charges of being a coward. But I don't think he would have suffered any loss of support over it. Sooner or later, somebody has to stand up to this crap and say enough is enough.
Sweet, but I'll stop sweating when we get beyond the margin of vote fraud.
I think you meant "you're" (a contraction for "you are."
They tried paying people to vote in the 1830s for Jackson, and it didn't work very well then. I think the "danger" of fraud of this type, as horrifying as it looks on paper, is minimal. Someone like Soros would have to actually get down in the trenches and mingle with people he can't stand to pull this off. I don't see it.
Some Freepers have said that one main reason W lost NM in 2000 was that there was a rather large snowstorm, and it drove down the GOP vote in rural areas.
The obligatory: "All your nuisances are belong to us. Series. This is hugh!" hehehe - couldn't resist....
If you watch "Gangs of New York," that is an accurate representation of REAL vote fraud. Even then, the Dems didn't always win.
Zogby is an INTERACTIVE poll. Anyone can vote, whenever. It's NOT a "scientific" poll at all---it's like a "straws at McDonalds" poll. Don't even pay Zogs one bit of attention.
See, all these group prayers are working!
Its like the Olympics - every four years its great to see what the best and brightest (hopefully) have in store for us. Its a LIVE national event - not an infomercial. If not face-to-face at least they are on the same stage.
And are there really any swing voters at this point? Or are the dabates as much to rally the base. I want to hear conservative policies given a good day in court and my candidate better deliver. I feel better about myself when W does a good job in the debates.
What the liberals seem to miss is that with a Republican house, Kerry's "plans" are DOA anyway. Besides with Kerry in command, the terrorists will be re-energized meaning he'll be a one-termer. Kerry was a waste from the beginning.
Fortunately it looks like Kerry, the Democrats and the MSM are all going to be flushed at once.
Obviously doesn't like a WOMAN. Look at his ugly, bitchy wife; excuse for being a lady with decorum; NOT. On the other hand (pun intended) I bet he's got girl friends named "Carpel Tunnel" and "Hairy Palms."
I think it's a hard 5% in the battleground states. Add a 3% margin of error so at 8-10% I'll feel a lot better. I'll be surprised if the Bush lead gets that wide so I expect to be sweating. Keep in mind that given the margin of error this poll could be Bush 48% and Kerry 49%. Not likely, but possible.
Its gotta be so far out that there is no way they can cheat... They have geared up for major fraud... The DUMS are going to scream at 2 or 3 percent wins... It needs to be a landslide and with the NUISANCE comment the only people that should vote for John FnK should be the extreme radicals.... Anyone else a vote for Kerry is a vote to die at the hands of a terrorist.... Sorry I meant a nuisance.
Kerry up by one is within the margin of error of the WP poll. Keep in mind that Zogby alone called the Gore surge over the last weekend in 2000.
Good news, Bush over 50% is crucial .....Keep praying, keep fighting!
I think the margin of fraud is probably 2%. Two percent, by the way is a MASSIVE number. I would guess you need a five-point lead to be secure. Anything above that and voter fraud won't change the outcome. I'm adding an extra few points to cushion against turn-out variables. If Bush is ahead by five or more, I think he's safe. Less than three, and fraud becomes a major issue. Three should still deliver a win, but it will likely look close.
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