Posted on 10/09/2004 3:08:23 PM PDT by LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget
By DAN MOLINSKI, Associated Press Writer
BOGOTA, Colombia - Amid record seizures of cocaine and massive spraying of coca plantations, a senior U.S. official says the "tipping point" in the war on drugs has finally been reached. But skeptics are unconvinced and say the war remains unwinnable.
At first glance, the drug warriors have a lot to crow about:
_ Last month, the U.S. Coast Guard (news - web sites) and U.S. Navy (news - web sites) seized 28 tons of cocaine from two fishing boats off the coast of the Galapagos Islands (news - web sites). State Department officials said they were the largest seizures on record during a one-week stretch.
_ In 2003, 160 tons of cocaine were seized — breaking all previous annual records, State Department officials said.
_ A U.S.-financed campaign in Colombia to fumigate coca crops, the main ingredient of cocaine, has cut the number of acres under cultivation to about half of 1999 levels, about 212,000 acres last year, according to the United Nations (news - web sites).
"I've been at this for 15 years and I have truly never been more optimistic than I am right now," U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Robert B. Charles, the State Department's top anti-narcotics official, said from Washington in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.
Charles claimed the drug war is "at a tipping point both in Colombia and the region" and predicted authorities would "break the backs" of drug cartels within the next two years.
But another key indicator has stubbornly refused to conform, casting doubt on the claims of victory: cocaine prices in the United States remain stable, and availability has even surged in some areas.
Some 388 tons of cocaine were available in U.S. markets in 2002, according to the most recent U.S. government figures, and officials say this flow remained steady into 2004.
According to simple market theory, if less cocaine is entering the United States from Colombia, by far the world's biggest producer of the drug, then availability on the streets should be going down and prices should be going up.
"These guys are delusional to think they're close to winning the so-called drug war," said Ethan Nadelmann, executive director of the New York-based nonprofit group Drug Policy Alliance.
Nadelmann said, and drug agents agree, that in addition to street prices being stable, the purity of cocaine on U.S. streets has remained the same for years — so smugglers are not diluting the cocaine more than they normally do to make up for a supply reduction.
Washington officials say prices are unchanged because traffickers have stockpiled tons of cocaine along smuggling routes.
But Francisco Thoumi, an economics professor and an expert on drug trafficking at Bogota's Rosario University, doubts that.
"That's a hard theory to swallow," Thoumi said. "If there's one business in the world in which stockpiling isn't such a good idea, it's cocaine."
Thoumi said traffickers would want to keep their cocaine flowing through the smuggling networks and not cache tons of cocaine along the way because it would have to be guarded and could be stolen by rivals or discovered by police.
Thoumi said "significant advances have been made this year" in the war on drugs, especially in the record number of seizures and a rise in drug traffickers being sent to prison. He said he is "puzzled" that cocaine prices have remained unaffected.
One possible factor, he said, is that growers are reportedly planting their coca more densely together. So although more acres have been fumigated, the plots that have escaped being sprayed are producing more cocaine.
Also, coca farming is increasing elsewhere. It is the so-called balloon theory: squeeze production in one area and it pops up in another.
Coca cultivation has risen 8 percent in Bolivia since 1999, to 59,000 acres last year, the United Nations said. And in Peru, coca cultivation has jumped 14 percent from 1999, to 109,000 acres, the U.N. report said.
Still, cultivation in the Andean region has dropped overall by about 30 percent in the past five years, the U.N. said, and continued to fall in 2004.
Fears that Ecuador and Venezuela would also begin producing large amounts of coca have not come to pass. A 2004 U.S. State Department report says coca cultivation is still "not significant" in Ecuador, and less than 600 acres of coca or other drug crops are being cultivated in Venezuela.
Why don't we just relegalize slavery? After all, drug addiction is just another form of it.
Are you really that dense or are you just pretending to be so ignorant. A slave has no choice. He or she cannot say no and walk away from a person that wants to enslave them . Slavery can only be implemented by initiating force against a person. Initiation of force is a crime. Offering a person a choice or option that they are free to say 'no' to and walk away is not a crime. Millions of people "just say no" every day".
Perhaps you believe you're too ignorant to just say no and thus strive to enlist government agents to initiate force against people. Yet there will still be drug dealers with which you'll be confronted with your inability to just say no. Aside from enlisting government agents to initiate force on your behalf, what areas of life do you believe you're unable to rationally and competently deal with?
Just look at all the flak and abuse you've taken here. It makes my heart sad. All the usual crap and on top of the misery you've seen and personally tried to help.
"but what about booze, it causes misery and it's legal..."
"but jail is not the answer..."
"but people who OD are making a free choice...."
"but we aren't winning the WOD so we need to surrender and try to make terms...."
"but it costs too much and we could be spending the money on other things..."
"but we should just accept it and make it legal and tax it..."
Again I say God Bless You and keep speaking up. If a "senior government official" makes a cautious statement that we are making progress, why in the world is everyone ready to negate that...? I fear for our society if Kerry and Soros are elected.
Because his own statistics show that it is all wishful self-delusion, that is why. If the street price is not rising, if quality is not being reduced, then guess what. Economics 1A teaches you that supply is remaining pretty stable.
Do you think we should put an end to the misery caused by alchololism by making it illegal and waging a war against it, or do you agree with the descision "to surrender and try to make terms" as you put it?
It's hardly tinfoil or rare to see the link to a continuation of Prohibition-era federal LEA employment in the start of the Drug War noted here on FR.
We know why there is a Drug War. We also know that solid conservative policies, like an NRST and MSAs are linked to the Drug War. Financial privacy and medical freedom of choice are frightening ideas to the Drug Warriors.
Government has said the same thing many times before. Almost exact same wording. Its not a hard piece of propaganda to spot.
If we return to alcohol prohibition abuse and violent crime will increase. Yet somehow, in delusional people's minds drug prohibition doesn't cause an increase in abuse and violent crime.
Apparently learning from history is no longer a conservative thing to do.
Those drug busts we hear about all the time aren't after school programs. I would say the gloves are already off.
"Legalizing drugs will not remove a problem, it will just rename one."
Are you saying that re-legalizing drugs will have no effect or what?
"...the fact remains that drug addiction is a serious problem, legal or not."
Do you realize what you are saying? You are saying that drug laws do not prevent drug addiction. What's the point of drug prohibition again, I'm missing the point?
Yes, people have problems with drugs and have had throughout human history. Even, animals have problems with drugs. Adding the problems created by prohibtion does not help drug problems and creates slews of additional problems, ie terrorist and criminal gangs funding their murderous activities with the law-created hyper-profits.
"I agree that the war on drugs is filling our prison cells at a rate faster then we can handle, but i would rather have full prison cells than full morgues.'"
Well, my friend, with drug prohibition you get both and more. Last time I looked it up, illegal drugs were associated with 3-4,000 deaths per year, while drug prohibition murders were around 12,000. Oh, zero marijuana deaths in known human history making it the safest known drug. Alcohol, tobacco and rx drugs have associated deaths combined of around 400,000.
"... looking at drug use as a non-issue because it is something someone does in private could not be further from the truth."
In the philosophy business, this is what they call a 'straw man' argument. Who said drug use was a non-issue? No one. I'm just saying that drug prohibition actually makes the drug problem worse and creates further additional problems, such as once again to mention the funding of terrorists who are out to kill as many Americans as possible. What does this all have to do with drug rehab?
Tell me, is or was Rush Limbaugh, drug addict, in recovery, a threat to society? Should he be in legal jeopardy, the target of a politicized Democrat prosecutor? Who by the way is abusing his office by violating Mr Limbaugh's Florida Constitution protected medical records.
Badodo, what you wrote makes a good case for re-legalization of drugs.
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