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> Kerry has peaked
> He has no more lines of attack

You bring up an interesting point, Timbuck2. Remember how everyone was screaming how badly Dubya did at the first debate? And how, while he did MUCH better at the second one, he still let certain things go unreplied-to?

Is it possible that the always-misunderestimated Dubya has been forcing Kerry to expend all his ammo -- and now, Dubya goes into the third debate with plenty of things to shoot down Kerry with?

I personally think these results are due to a combination of things. People have now had a chance to digest all of the things Kerry really said in the first debate, and don't like his "Global Test", and some of the other things he said.

Secondly, the Vice Presidential Debate was clearly a home run for Vice President Cheney. Sen. Edwards came across as an arrogant ambulance chaser with no applicable experience for the job of Vice President. This stark contrast is also sinking in.

Lastly, since 95% of the responses were taken prior to last night's Presidential debate, you can assume that only west coast liberals and a few from the central time zone had seen the debate. These were most likely skewed towards Kerry given that Oregon, Washington, and California are all leaning toward Kerry.

Given this, I believe the bounce will increase over the next few days and by Wednesday there should be a fairly strong lead being shown for President Bush in the Rassmussen poll. This will be just in time for the next debate to start making an impact.

Um ... not really. It's like a law of a nature. Cr*p by Liberals is spewed faster than it can be rebutted. Kerry was able to pack 2 lies, 3 spinnings-of-events, 1 phony reference to a GOP hack quote, and a Bush character smear in 90 seconds.

How do you respond to that? You cant ... in fact it was probably a deliberate kerry strategy to spew so much cr*p that Bush had to respond and get off his own 'offense'.

Bush otoh, did a fantastic job responding to it.

The media have barely brought this up (!), but I think this is huge: Kerry has spent all his ammo. How many times can you repeat "The President rushed us into war" and think it's going to win you another voter who hasn't heard it before?

Just like investors say that certain pieces of news are "already priced into a stock", all Kerry's ammo is already "priced into" the polls.

W has only just started to dip into the ammo cache of Kerry's 20 year Senate record. So public knowledge of Kerry's votes on partial birth abortion, taxes, spending, etc. are barely "priced into" the polls yet.

Kerry has to rely entirely on new CIA reports that the media can misrepresent, or an October suprise of some sort, or just the general media fawning.