Posted on 10/09/2004 7:32:34 AM PDT by MarlboroRed
There's no point in doing a little political punditry in the October of an election year without going way out on a limb, so here goes: As I smelled it, the most important thing that happened in the second presidential debate is that George W. Bush lost a good chunk of the women's vote.
He's been ahead, you know, among large blocs of women. If you take away black women, who appear to vote more based on their race than their sex (and thus vote heavily Democratic), Bush leads John Kerry among women. The media have made great hoo-ha lately about this fact, noting and arguing that Bush was gaining steadily and building a solid lead among the "security moms" because of his successful attacks (read: fear-mongering lies) on Kerry's ability to fight terrorism.
I'm guessing that Friday night, that trend started shifting into reverse. It wasn't any single thing Bush said. It was the manner: the schoolyard swagger, the left arm cocked like an itchy gunslinger's, the arrogant sneer, the roosterish strutting -- and the voice. God, that voice. You don't quite call that screaming. It wasn't exactly caterwauling. Maybe yowling. Whatever it was, he sounded like a tedious and noisome braggart in the parking lot after a football game. Having seen plenty of those, and having been that myself from time to time, experience teaches me to take the view that most women do not find that figure appealing.
They might have, if Kerry had come across, to extend the metaphor, as the inadequate sad sack portrayed in Bush's television commercials. But he didn't. Kerry was terrific. Far better, by my lights, than he was in the first debate. I know no one else will see it that way, because he was the first debate's obvious winner, while he merely edged out round two on points after Bush didn't show up in where-am-I-again? mode. But Kerry was, if anything, stronger -- more succinct and direct, more challenging to Bush, and tougher -- than he had been in the first debate. And he especially showed all those qualities when he was talking foreign policy. I'm betting the security moms noticed.
Of course, I'm guessing, and I have no actual idea whether I'm right. Certainly, this isn't the kind of angle that will have been discussed on the cable post-game shows. The few women permitted into the club are busy proving that they can be one of the guys (Andrea Mitchell) or that they can be just as sycophantic toward Bush as the big boys (Candy Crowley); they know that's the only way they can stay on television, so they sure aren't there to represent their sex.
It's very much worth remembering, in fact, how aggressively male a domain cable television is. The worst moment, when Bush just clearly behaved like a rude jerk, came at 9:36 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, when Charlie Gibson was trying to ask him a follow-up and Bush brusquely waved him off, interrupted, and charged forward and started yelping about Tony Blair. It was witnessing this moment that made me start to think about women viewers. But Chris Matthews, naturally, thought it was great. Which makes me think I'm on to something.
Polls won't deal with this question for a few days, and if they prove me wrong, they prove me wrong. But as hunches go, this strikes me as one worth playing.
Michael Tomasky is executive editor of The American Prospect.
Two out of three of your comments have been either negative about President Bush or positive about Edwards. Are you sure you're on the right website?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1234166/posts?page=22#22
"We have to give them this: Edwards published an article a month before 9/11 warning of terrorists threats against the USA.
22 posted on 10/03/2004 3:46:26 PM CDT by Carolinian
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]"
This author has it all wrong.
How is providing pregnant women in need of a safe place to stay during what may be a traumatic, confusing time for them reversing women's rights? How does that threaten YOU? Are these women being interned, or are they being offered another option to abortion? Are you pro life or are you pro abortion?
this MALE author is beyond clueless...I am a woman and watched it with 2 other women and, without a doubt, Bush slayed the dragon last night.
and for anyone concerned, almost ALL of my female friends are voting for Bush...without a doubt
Real women don't like girlie men.
What about the fact that he quashed a Kerry Campaign inspired rumor by saying: "FORGET ALL THIS TALK ABOUT A DRAFT. THERE WILL BE NO DRAFT DURING MY PRESIDENCY".
Does anyone think that didn't help him with the women vote?
You're wrong! Can you imagine someone who only has an abortion because she has no where to go or no one to help her while she is pregnant? A group home is no different than a Battered women's shelter. Are you against them too?
"...Tell me I'm wrong..."
- - -
You're wrong.
Newbie.
In light of the war on terror and you may change your vote over "maternity homes"?
If we loose the war on terror, it will not matter if we have dudley squat!
I am 66 years old, I remember maternity homes and they were good. We could use them again for young women who are kicked out of their homes for being pregnant, have no place to go, and really do not want to go through an abortion.
The trouble is, we do not have many alternatives to abortion!
This guy is an idiot, no woman has respect for a man
who won't stand up for himself, who won't correct a slur
on his reputation.
Michael Tomasky obviously doesn't know women.
We saw a strong, self-confident guy take some dignified whacks at a posturing girly man who is so vain and self- centered we want to scream "EMPTY SHELL!" every time we are exposed to him.
Kerrry is the epitome of every posturing, people-using boss, professor, teacher, etc., that women have had to put up with 'looking down at them'. "I'll have MY girl call YOUR girl"...
W is the brash, happy, slightly 'bad boy' that everyone wants to know and be with. The fact that he seems to know what he wants, and surrounds himself with experienced people who know the way, is comforting to everyone, not just women.
Women always love straight shooting cowboys. They make them feel safe.
Begone Troll. Been on FR 15 days and now Bush is taking away womans rights. Back to DU with you.
Give me a break... The President shows strength and leadership... John Kerry showed himself to be a Drama Queen...
It takes one to know one, so I'm guessing that Michael is one of them there Girly-Boys...
'I am extremely upset over the comment about creating "maternity group homes". I do not want women to return to 1950. This may change my vote entirely. I cannot support anyone who seeks to reverse women's rights and that is what I heard President Bush saying last night. Tell me I'm wrong.'
you're wrong.
This article was written by a guy who has as much political acumen as John sKerry. ZERO. sKerry is a pandering, kiss-ass, promise them anything, LIBERAL. sKerry is Santa Claus with a $1000 haircut and pretty manicure. Trust me when I say that sKerry turned "OFF" the majority of women voters last night.
I'm a MarlboroRed man too, so maybe my opinion won't count!! :-)
If the title doesn't tell you to beware before reading with a full belly of scrambled eggs and toast I don't know what would.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.