Posted on 10/02/2004 1:45:56 PM PDT by tsmith130
Edited on 10/02/2004 2:53:28 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
Sat Oct 02 2004 16:42:32 ET
New York-Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won; 19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied, according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected; 3 percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.
The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.
A 62-percent majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (26% say so for Bush) and 51 percent say Kerry had better command of issues and facts (37% for Bush). Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush) and 49 percent say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush). The two were nearly even on several other points, including who came across as a strong leader (47% Kerry, 44% Bush) and who had a better plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq (45% for both). Forty percent of viewers thought Kerry was too wordy and 57 percent thought Bush was too repetitive.
Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46 percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican convention. Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled say they would not like to see Bush re-elected but almost as many (46%) say they would.
Excerpt, the rest of the article is here: NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
You're right! We've got to stop being so timid and scared. Buck up and get tough. We all knew this wasn't gonna be easy. I hope Kerry's people believe this poll. We all know what an arrogant, egotistical, @#$%&* he is. The more smug he feels, the more the true Kerry will come out. I thought Kerry was quite guarded the other night, and even then he let things like 'global test' slip. He'll be more careless this next go around. Also since Bush has now had time to sift through all the Kerry mumbo gumbo from the other night, he'll be far more prepared with his responses. I know that this next debate will focus on domestic issues, but Bush has some great ideas, and has always been consistent with this. Kerry has nothing but the overused, rehashed, canned comeback of 'tax cuts for the wealthy' crap! The format will also be more appealling. Bush's team knew that formal debate format was Bushes weakest. That's probably why they allowed it to be first. If this poll feels like a set back, then let us just view it as a reminder to stay on our toes.
Relax Freepers. Bush is still ahead by a good margin, this debate and the remaining will have little effect.
The latest Newsweek poll is at variance with the other polls released thus far (other polls indicate that those polled believe that Kerry won the debate, but still have Bush ahead with little change in voter preferences).
Gallup, Princeton, et.al. might say that the numbers of Republicans and Democrats included in the survey varying with surveys has no affect (due to variance in what those polled consider themselves), but don't believe it. That’s one of the reasons why the various polls vary 5- 6% with each other. The huge change in the Republican/Democrat ratio alone accounts for the apparent dramatic Newsweek poll numbers shift:
|
|
Newsweek Poll |
|
Reg. Voter Subgroup |
10/2/04 |
9/11/04 |
Republicans |
345 |
391 |
Democrats |
364 |
300 |
Rep/Dem Ratio |
0.95 |
1.30 |
The Data:
-------
Newsweek Poll First Presidential Debate Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results (10/2/04)
Totals Bush/Cheney 45 Kerry Edwards 47
Nader/Camejo 2
N = 1,013 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 30-October 2, 2004 (interviewing on 9/30 limited to the Pacific and Mountain time zones after the presidential debate concluded)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS: 1,144 Total adults (plus or minus 3)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS: 1,013 Total Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
481 Men (plus or minus 5)
532 Women (plus or minus 5) 345 Republicans (plus or minus 6) 364 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
278 Independents (plus or minus 7)
Source:
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-02-2004/0002263797&EDATE=
----------
Newsweek Poll Post-Labor Day Princeton Survey Research Associates International Final Topline Results (9/11/04)
Totals Bush/Cheney 49 Kerry Edwards 43
Nader/Camejo 2
N = 1,003 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 9-10, 2004
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS: 1,166 Total adults (plus or minus 3)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS: 1,003 Registered voters (plus or minus 4) 391 Republicans (plus or minus 6) 300 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
270 Independents (plus or minus 7)
481 Men (plus or minus 5)
Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040911/nysa006_1.html
That's not what they're saying. They could only poll in those areas after right after the debate because it was before 9:00 PM there. I'm sure they made the sample more correct in geographically diversity the following day. Otherwise, the poll would be a joke.
The total doom and gloom out of this place sometimes over certain pointless things and then the overecstatic joy over other certain pointless things is really funny sometimes. But it makes me not want to post here. Y'all need to have thicker skin.
Dick Morris was on O'Reilly directly after the debate and said President Bush's handlers need to make him do his homework as what Kerry will say in debates is predictable and he needs to have more energy as well. He said the next debate will be on enemy territory (domestic issues) so that is not good. But he is a smart man and able to rise to the occassion when he sees he must (as he did with McCain). Pat Caddell said Kerry gave President Bush many chances to blow him out of the water but he feels his handlers advised him to go soft because of the women voters he would need.
Beat me to it, I was just gonna do that. Nice work, it is a perfect illustration of how the media manufactures momentum by polls.
Too bad Bush's handlers didn't convince him to lose the whiney defensive tone of voice.
I don't think these numbers are right
This has me doubting the reliability of this whole poll.
I totally agree. CBS proved that just a few weeks ago and we've already forgotten that.
yea, shows the problems with this poll.
BS meter, LOL, very funny!
Face it, Bush is nothing but a dumb, spoiled, arrogant shit.
A landslide electoral loss is guaranteed. I myself plan to vote for Kerry.
I'm glad you saw it too! This happens all the time, voter swings, numbers of Reps/Dems varies, in Gallup and the rest. This is the biggest swing I have seen though, Newsweek's Princeton poll is doing something erroneous from a statistical point of view.
are you testing the moderators or what?
LMAO! THAT was funny!
wonderful
GO Away!!!!!!
cool. thanks for the laugh.
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