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More on Asteroid Toutatis Passing Earth Sept 29th, 2004
Space.Com ^ | Sept 28th, 2004 | Robert Britt

Posted on 09/28/2004 5:34:19 PM PDT by missyme

A minor rumor has hatched on the Internet that a large and deadly asteroid will strike Earth this fall. Bulletin board discussions cite a 63 percent chance of impact, while concerned readers have e-mailed SPACE.com wondering if it is true.

Astronomers know of no such impending doom.

The rumors are likely rooted in a real event, however. On Sept. 29, 2004 an asteroid the size of a small city will make the closest known pass of such a very large space rock anytime this century.

While not dangerous for now, asteroid Toutatis is incredibly strange. And scientists are quite familiar with it, having bounced radar off the tumbling stone on previous flybys to generate computer renderings of its weird shape and movement.

Toutatis looks something like a dumbbell hurtling awkwardly through space. It has a crazy rotation that makes normal days impossible. Scientists can't explain the shape or the spin, but they're eager to learn more in September when, during the close pass, even backyard skywatchers will be able to spot the asteroid.

Well known path

The orbit of Toutatis is pinned down with better precision than any other large asteroid known to cross Earth's orbit. Toutatis' 4-year trek around the Sun ranges from just inside the Earth's path out to the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. The asteroid visits us every four years.

This fall, it will zoom by our planet within a million miles, or about four times the distance to the Moon.

That's close by cosmic standards for an object that could cause global devastation. Toutatis hasn't been so near since the year 1353 and won't be that close again until 2562, NASA scientists have calculated. No other asteroid so large is known to have come so close in the past, though accurate tracking of space rocks is a fairly recent, high-tech skill that still leaves wide margins of error for many objects.

Toutatis is about 2.9 miles long and 1.5 miles wide (4.6 by 2.4 kilometers).

Many smaller space rocks have passed by much closer, well inside the Moon's orbit. Other asteroids in the size range of Toutatis have surely navigated that window, too, but were unseen in eras when the skies were not scanned so fully as today.

And throughout history, several asteroids and comets have hit the planet. In fact, an object the size of Mars hit Earth when it was very young, creating the Moon, scientists believe. But experts say the odds of a major collision in any year are extremely small. Any other near-Earth asteroid as big as Toutatis would almost surely be spotted decades or centuries before any possible impact.

The prediction of any such event would make huge news rather than small rumors.

Not dangerous, just bizarre

Asteroid Toutatis, officially numbered 4179, was discovered by French astronomers in 1989. Researchers can't predict far enough into the future to rule out Toutatis ever slamming into Earth, so it is listed officially as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid. NASA says it won't hit for at least the next six centuries.

Meanwhile, previous close approaches have allowed intriguing radar examinations of one of the oddest things in space.

"The vast majority of asteroids and all the planets spin about a single axis, like a football thrown in a perfect spiral," explains Scott Hudson of Washington State University. "But Toutatis tumbles like a flubbed pass."

The result is a lack of anything resembling a normal day or night on the giant, pockmarked space rock.

Instead of a fixed north pole, Toutatis' axis of rotation wanders around in two separate cycles of 5.4 and 7.3 Earth-days. Stars seen from any location on the asteroid "would crisscross the sky, never following the same path twice,'' Hudson says.

More study planned

Steven Ostro at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has, with Hudson, studied Toutatis via radar on previous flybys. Ostro told SPACE.com that the population of near-Earth asteroids -- hundreds bigger than 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) have been found in the past six years or so -- are now known to come in "a zoo of shapes." And there are other asteroids that don't rotate on a single, main axis.

"But Toutatis remains the only non-principal-axis rotator in the solar system whose shape and spin state are well defined," Ostro said. More radar observations this year will try to further refine the spin rate and orbit.

There is more to learn. For starters, scientists also can't yet say if Toutatis has a hard surface or a thick layer of loose dirt similar to the Moon.

"I'd very much like to know whether Toutatis' strange shape and ponderously slow, wobbly rotation are the result of collisional breaking apart or a gentle merger of the asteroid's two lobes, and when the responsible phenomena happened," Ostro said.

Answers to all these big questions might require an as-yet-unplanned visit.

"Because of the radar investigations, our physical characterization of Toutatis is the best we have for any Potentially Hazardous Asteroid," Ostro said. "But a spacecraft rendezvous could tell us a great deal more, and I would love to see this happen."

Looking both ways

On Sept. 29, backyard skywatchers on Earth can find Toutatis, providing they know where to look.

Toutatis won't be visible to the unaided eye. Ordinary binoculars should be sufficient for spotting it if the sky is clear and dark, says Alan Harris, of the Space Science Institute in Boulder, CO.

"However, to actually know what you're seeing, a small telescope would be useful," Harris says. That will allow you to detect the slow motion of Toutatis against background stars. The asteroid will appear as a point of light, much like a star. It is too far for surface details to be visible.

It's also interesting to ponder what Earth would look like form Toutatis. Ostro points out a simple relationship between the distance of Toutatis at this close approach and the size of the Moon. Toutatis will be four times farther than the Moon; the Moon is about ¼ the size of Earth.

"If you were on Toutatis and looked at Earth during the close approach, the Earth would look as large as the Full Moon does to us."


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Philosophy
KEYWORDS: asteroid; catastrophism; toutatis
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To: RadioAstronomer

A Possible Earthquake? we had one today ...


121 posted on 09/28/2004 8:21:25 PM PDT by missyme
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To: missyme
Are you going to view the Asteroid tomorrow in your yard? you seem very Asteroid Knowledgeable....

I will give it a shot. :-)

122 posted on 09/28/2004 8:22:08 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: missyme

What's happening in Hawaii? I heard something about potential activity, is there any eruption (besides Puu Oo which is always happening)?


123 posted on 09/28/2004 8:23:01 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Islamo-Jihadis and Homosexual-Jihadis both want to destroy civilization.)
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To: missyme
A Possible Earthquake? we had one today ...

Nope. Thing of the gravitational tug from the Moon (tides). That is HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!! Compared to this tiny asteroid.

124 posted on 09/28/2004 8:23:29 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: little jeremiah

A volcanic Eruption is happening I think on the Bi island as well as Mt St Helen having mountain seizures....


125 posted on 09/28/2004 8:24:33 PM PDT by missyme
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To: RadioAstronomer

Okay you will have to give a report please..:)


126 posted on 09/28/2004 8:25:33 PM PDT by missyme
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To: Denver Ditdat; missyme
That's it. Nothing mysterious or unusual about it at all.

The October full moon is called the "Hunters Moon". In fact all full moons have a name depending on the month they fall in.

127 posted on 09/28/2004 8:26:00 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: RadioAstronomer

Well than that is proably why we had that earthquake Moon tides? maybe another one tonight...


128 posted on 09/28/2004 8:27:15 PM PDT by missyme
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To: missyme; little jeremiah
A volcanic Eruption is happening I think on the Bi island as well as Mt St Helen having mountain seizures....

Plate Tectonics. :-)

129 posted on 09/28/2004 8:27:39 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: RadioAstronomer
Buses have gravitational pull?

Even you have a gravitational pull. All mass does. However, its pretty tiny. :-)

Okay, we now have hurricanes, volcanoes, earthquakes, asteroids, spiders, and buses to worry about.

130 posted on 09/28/2004 8:28:42 PM PDT by prairie dog
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To: RadioAstronomer

Are you a Professional Astronomer? you know quite alot...


131 posted on 09/28/2004 8:28:55 PM PDT by missyme
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To: prairie dog

LOL! This thread has me giggling. Radio A. is so graceful and patient!


132 posted on 09/28/2004 8:30:09 PM PDT by bonfire
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To: prairie dog

Sounds like an Episode of the Twilight Zone...


133 posted on 09/28/2004 8:30:27 PM PDT by missyme
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To: missyme
Well than that is proably why we had that earthquake Moon tides? maybe another one tonight...

Since I am not a planetary geologist, I cannot say for sure how much of an effect the lunar tides could have on earthquakes, however IMHO, I think Plate Tectonics is the reason here.

134 posted on 09/28/2004 8:31:04 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: missyme
Are you a Professional Astronomer? you know quite alot...

OK big vanity here! :-) See:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/938624/posts

And yes, I "do" radio astronomy.

135 posted on 09/28/2004 8:33:50 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: prairie dog
Okay, we now have hurricanes, volcanoes, earthquakes, asteroids, spiders, and buses to worry about.

ROFL! :-)

136 posted on 09/28/2004 8:35:22 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: missyme
Some News Articles are also talking about the abundant of Spiders that are showing up, meaning it is a bit unusual to see so many spiders coming out at this point, don't know if this has to do with anything or the Asteroid...

It may just be a Moonage Daydream but I think we've got Five Years left to live in.

137 posted on 09/28/2004 8:35:46 PM PDT by TigersEye (Intellectuals only exist if you think they do!)
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To: RadioAstronomer

Wow! What a web-site Did you build that Huge Thinga Ma jiggy your standing next to?


138 posted on 09/28/2004 8:37:21 PM PDT by missyme
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To: bonfire
Radio A. is so graceful and patient!

Awww. Thanks! :-)

139 posted on 09/28/2004 8:37:24 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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To: missyme
Wow! What a web-site Did you build that Huge Thinga Ma jiggy your standing next to?

Ummm.. When I was in the bunny suit? That was in a clean room with a spacecraft I was working with.

140 posted on 09/28/2004 8:39:02 PM PDT by RadioAstronomer
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