Odds on the 2008 GOP nominee

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[JLS]

Bill First 5/2 John McCain 7/2 Rudolph Guiliani 7/2 George Pataki 9/2 Chuck Hagel 6 Mitt Romney 6 Bill Owens 8 Tom Ridge 8 George Allen 12 Norm Coleman 12 Lindsey Graham 14 Sam Brownback 14 Arnold Schwarzenegger 66 Dick Cheney 66 Jeb Bush 66 Laura Bush 100

[Jacvin]

Rising stars?

Rudy is old and Arnold can't run.

The convention is a show for the sheeple, it doesn't mean much.

The entire party, including the Presidential surrogates, are bashing Kerry on gay marriage, guns, the life issue, his annulment, and the bad Catholic issue. It's working too. .
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The same thing would happen to Rudy on all of those issues. .
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Whenever Bush is in trouble he goes to the right, like he did in 2000 against McCain. .
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That's when you see the true nature of our party's Conservative base. .
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Heck, look what Mel just did to McCollum, Mel destroyed him with vicious attacks in the last week because McCollum supported stem cell research and was slightly vulnerable on the gay issue. Mel picked up 15 points in the last week with those attacks and I'm glad he did it. .
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Mel is the better candidate. .
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Worse would happen to Rudy outside of New York State. .
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Everyone keeps talking like there are no Republican primaries or that the R primaries are not dominated by social conservatives, but they are. .
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Rudy would wreck the winning R coalition not just on the life issue but on guns, gay marriage, etc. .
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He is a big city liberal on everything but crime and the war. .
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It's not going to happen. .
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I take it you mean Miami, right?

[Jacvin]

No, you're the one that is putting your agenda over the war by thinking you can bust up the winning Republican coalition because you're fond of abortions and gay marriage.

All of the posters in the "Rudy Cult" who ignore all of his leftist positions are the ones putting the war effort at risk, not Conservatives.

you've already admitted in a previous post that you are unable to argue your position in depth so why are you back to humiliate yourself.

[Bluegrass Conservative]

I think you're partially right. The prime time folks at the convention are to try to pull in the swing voters that don't pay enough attention to know what is going on. They are the ones that only know 3 or 4 names from each party, so you make sure you have those 3 or 4 folks on television for them.

However, the convention speakers whose time slots were only featured on C-Span and 24-hour news networks often are rising stars within the party. There were several of those this past convention, in my opinion. Those being folks like Mitt Romney, Michael Steele, Anne Northup, etc.

[Jacvin]

True.

Prime time is usually reserved to try and get what YOU DON"T HAVE.

All polls indicate that Conservatives are solidly behind the President so they went for the undecideds.(mods by definition)

You cannot go for the mods if you don't have your own base nailed down.

Nailing down your base is the most important aspect of Presidential politics, a concept a lot of posters on this thread seem to have a problem understanding.

Like it or not Giuliani could never secure the Republican base.

That reality may infuriate the mod Republicans I'm arguing with but it is the reality none the less.

[Luis Gonzalez]

Rising stars=name recognition.

Rudy is old?

Reagan was a spring chicken?

You're starting to contradict yourself here: believe we could do what we did with Reagan again, except when you don't want us to believe that we could do what we did with Reagan again.

Yep...you're a political consultant alright.

The convention is a show for the sheeple?

Was Barack Obama more or less of a political reality before or after that show for the sheeple?

The convention is a tool.

"The same thing would happen to Rudy on all of those issues."

OH!

So YOU are Nostradamus!!!

I get it now!

"Rudy would wreck the winning R coalition not just on the life issue but on guns, gay marriage, etc..."

Nostradamus.

"It's not going to happen..."

Nostradamus.

What the hell difference does it make to you where I live anyway?

I'll give you a clue:

Where I live, we've had to put up shutters several times this past two months.

[Luis Gonzalez]

[finnigan2]

If Rudy were to beat Hitlery for the Senate in 2006 it would greatly wound her Presidential hopes, but the MSM wouldn't give up on her completely. She will still be in the running during the primaries and she would be given every break in the book by her MSM fans, but the shine would be off.
On a related topic, I think that one big disadvantage to her future chances is her marriage to Bubba. Many voters, regardless of their views of her, do not want to see him back in the White House, even as a spouse. Therefore, I see them divorcing, probably in 2005. It will be sold as an "amiable" split and he will remain a supporter as advisor, fund raiser, etc. But he will then be free to cat around without hurting her campaign and she will have neutralized the distaste many feel for her due to him being her husband.

[Jacvin]

"What the hell difference does it make to you where I live anyway?"

I was trying to bring the rhetoric down a notch by starting a personal dialogue, but since you want to act like a maroon forget it. I also have had shutters up.
I imagine we do not live far from each other.

I don't have to be Nostradamus to know that Rudy would be attacked on those issues. History repeats itself and every National Republican candidate that is weak on those issues gets savaged in a primary.

A bunch of lazy boy armchair quarterbacks on this thread that think they know something because they watch T.V..

I know Rudy will get attacked on those issues because in the State of Florida I will be one of the ones attacking him and I can put six figure muscle behind my opinions.

So please spare me the weekend warrior routine. It is pointless trying to argue with amateurs, but when Rudy goes down in 08 and you marvel at the attacks on him in Florida, I do hope you remember me.

[Luis Gonzalez]

LOL!!!

I just got the "my opinions count more than yours do because I get paid for them" routine!

You don't know who I am, what I do, or who I know, but you know that I don't know as much as you do, so YOUR speculations carry more weight than mine.

Here's a flash: every candidate will be attacked on one issue or another, doesn't matter who they are.

That one's on the house.

[Luis Gonzalez]

"I know Rudy will get attacked on those issues because in the State of Florida I will be one of the ones attacking him and I can put six figure muscle behind my opinions."

You work for Larry Klayman?

[JohnnyZ]

I really think Mitt Romney would be a much better candidate. Romney has the right stance for the social conservatives, but isn't as "in your face" about it as many are.

Romney is pro-abortion. That's probably why he hasn't been "in your face" about his pro-life beliefs.

[Luis Gonzalez]

"I know Rudy will get attacked on those issues because in the State of Florida I will be one of the ones attacking him and I can put six figure muscle behind my opinions."

I know my people, and six figures is what they spend on a single ad campaign.

[sturmde]

The answer is, who is John Kasich.

[Jacvin]

HAHAHAHA Who are "your people"?

Six figures is just my personal effort,which will pale in comparison to what's unleashed on a lefty R in a Republican Primary.

IN the end,I supported Mel FYI,I never supported Larry Klayman, although I know all the Senate Candidates personally and thought they were all good men.

[Jacvin]

I don't have to know who you are.

You have ignored all my most salient arguments and launched personal attacks because we disagree ipso facto you aren't that good at this and can be dismissed as an amateur.

[Durus]

Sanford - Rice 2008

[Luis Gonzalez]

LOL!

That's right, you are a political consultant in Florida who can drop six figures to back up a campaign at the drop of hat, and spends his time on an Internet board bragging about himself.

And how do we know all this?

You told us!

By the way...

I'm Batman.

[writmeister]

The 2008 nominee will be a governor or a former governor. I think the nominee will be one of the following:

1. George Allen

2. Tim Pawlenty

3. Bill Owen (depending on the details of his marital separation)

4. Mark Sanford

[Mark in the Old South]

Your line of reasoning is what is going to get the GOP in trouble. It is also why many social conservatives are looking at the GOP with real distrust. You may not have to wait till 2008 to see the effects. The polls this November may show grumbling in the ranks just as they did 4 years ago. I would not be shocked to discover a fifth column working for the sKerry team planting those doubts in the ranks. Promoting Rudy now is a lost vote for W this year as well as certain death to the GOP in 4 years. Social conservatives have permanently sown their nostrils shut for the stench. They are getting tired of it.

Only a mole would promote Rudy for POTUS.

[Luis Gonzalez]

Let's look at your posts, shall we?

You enter this thread in post #57 by throwing out more prophecies than could have been found in one of Jeanne Dixon's annual National Enquirer editions, then you call me Nostradamus because I have an opinion of my own.

In post #78 you start the rhetoric that you later want to tone down; here's some more free advice...if you don't like rhetoric, don't initiate it.

That one's on the house as well.

In Post #81, you set yourself up as the GOP itself, and tell a poster that he "can't change us"...however, I've yet to see you claim to be Ed Gillespie; but given time I'm sure you'll do that as well. Then you do some weird Walter Cronkite this in post #121..."that's the way it should be."

Now you are bragging about your money and your power.

What's truly funny is that a supposed political consultant with self-avowed "connections" is in here NOT paying attention to what the "sheeple" say, but beating them over the head with the idea that the party doesn't give a s%it about their opinion ("the convention is for sheeple"), rather than listening, and figuring out what the "sheeple" are saying.

Personally, I think you're a liar, and that's being kind, because if you are who and what you say you are, and you're behaving the way you're behaving on this thread, you are the enemy.