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Odds on the 2008 GOP nominee
bestbetting.com ^ | Paddy Power

Posted on 09/26/2004 1:54:16 PM PDT by JLS

Bill First 5/2 John McCain 7/2 Rudolph Guiliani 7/2 George Pataki 9/2 Chuck Hagel 6 Mitt Romney 6 Bill Owens 8 Tom Ridge 8 George Allen 12 Norm Coleman 12 Lindsey Graham 14 Sam Brownback 14 Arnold Schwarzenegger 66 Dick Cheney 66 Jeb Bush 66 Laura Bush 100


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; gopnominee; noneoftheabove
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To: Lady Jag

Judging Romney's viability by comparing the MA electorate to the rest of the country doesn't work at all. I think he would do well with bulk of Ameirca. His Mormon problem is in the Southern states. I'd like to believe it wouldn't be a factor but I can't see Falwell, Robertson, et al stepping up to the plate for Romney. If he got the nomination the Rats would pull no punches in their dirty tricks whisper campaigns in Southern churches about Romney the Mormon.


141 posted on 09/26/2004 4:37:44 PM PDT by azcap
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To: Luis Gonzalez
The nomination would not ride on the VP, would it?

It's been known to happen. Look at Ford in 1976: forced to dump Rockefeller from the ticket in order to hold off Reagan's challenge.

142 posted on 09/26/2004 4:37:47 PM PDT by Brandon
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To: MadIvan

I have never heard of Mark Sanford, but I like what I read.


143 posted on 09/26/2004 4:38:00 PM PDT by Trteamer ( (Eat Meat, Wear Fur, Own Guns, FReep Leftists, Drive an SUV, Drill A.N.W.R., Drill the Gulf, Vote)
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To: Brandon
"In 2000, the GOP nominated an admitted alcoholic."

I'd say you are a lefty.

The term for someone who has not had a drink in over a decade is recovering alcoholic.

144 posted on 09/26/2004 4:38:04 PM PDT by Luis Gonzalez ( Even Jane Fonda apologized. Will you, John?)
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To: Brandon

Come on man!

That was a sitting president with an existing VP!

Not the same.


145 posted on 09/26/2004 4:39:01 PM PDT by Luis Gonzalez ( Even Jane Fonda apologized. Will you, John?)
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To: Pan_Yan

I would love to see an all black ticket. Rice, Keyes, Watts, Powel, they can find a viable pair. And you are right- it would be scrumptious to watch the "non-biased" asses expose their racist selves.


146 posted on 09/26/2004 4:39:25 PM PDT by getitright (This tagline is accurate but not authentic)
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To: Jacvin

Then talk about it.


147 posted on 09/26/2004 4:39:33 PM PDT by Luis Gonzalez ( Even Jane Fonda apologized. Will you, John?)
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To: Luis Gonzalez
Who are you? Nostradamus?

Your premise is flawed. There is no guarantee Hillary will be the nominee and if she is it is more likely a Conservative candidate could beat her. You can't out left the lefties. If the GOP loses it's social Conservative base it's toast. That's just a fact of life.
148 posted on 09/26/2004 4:40:38 PM PDT by Jacvin
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To: Jacvin

How about Michael Steele as Romney's VP ?


149 posted on 09/26/2004 4:40:53 PM PDT by NoVaGOPer
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To: Luis Gonzalez

I agree and I did sort of exempt Rudy from my general rules that if you want to pick a nominee who might win the general:

1. Eliminate the guys and gals who have never won statewide elections in a medium to big state.

2. Eliminate the Senators

Rudy may be a special case. But notice all those here fearing Clinton/Obama are fearing two sitting Senators. The last time a sitting Senator won the White House was 1960, they had to cheat to win that one and the previous time was, I don't know when but certainly before FDR or Hoover. That is unless Kerry wins this time and then Clinton in 08 is not an issue.


150 posted on 09/26/2004 4:42:47 PM PDT by JLS
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To: JLS
When parties are dumb enough to nominate a Mondale or G.H.W. Bush both of whom were VPs but never won a statewide election

Mondale was elected statewide three times and nationally once. GHWBush was elected nationally twice before he ran for Prez.

151 posted on 09/26/2004 4:43:00 PM PDT by JohnnyZ ("The common man doesn't look at me as some rich witch." --Teresa Heinz Kerry)
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To: Luis Gonzalez

*shrug* Use whatever term you like. "Recovering alcoholic" is, imho, a euphemism for someone who does not dare have a single beer because he knows he can't control himself once he starts. And in any case, you dodged my point, which is that there were plenty of negatives in the personal lives of various people on the GOP ticket in 2000 (I could have added more -- like, the VP nominee had an openly gay daughter), but the campaign managed these disabilities in such a way that they didn't cost the election.


152 posted on 09/26/2004 4:43:10 PM PDT by Brandon
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To: Lady Jag

"Tancredo..."


I think he is from Colorado. He is very out-spoken on the immigration issue. He makes alot of sense. Thinks we need to close the borders, etc. He is beginning to attract a following. Any other FReepers have comments on Tancredo?


153 posted on 09/26/2004 4:44:24 PM PDT by toomanygrasshoppers ("Hold on to your hats.....it's going to be a bumpy night")
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To: Luis Gonzalez
You're right; it's not the same thing. A sitting president should be more strongly positioned than a nominee who is not the incumbent. If it was possible for Gerald Ford, the incumbent running for reelection, to be forced to drop the sitting VP from his ticket, it is even easier to imagine a non-incumbent being forced to make a deal.
154 posted on 09/26/2004 4:44:45 PM PDT by Brandon
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To: sharktrager
Good.

Let's wait a few years and finish off the Democrats (after the black vote begins to wake up they are done for).

Then we'll start cleaning house in the Republican party, or more realistically, let them keep moving left when one of the parties to the right gains momentum.

155 posted on 09/26/2004 4:45:47 PM PDT by Pan_Yan (Unemployed people should forfeit their right to vote.)
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To: Paleo Conservative
And that's a bad thing?

You like career stuffed shirts better?

156 posted on 09/26/2004 4:46:34 PM PDT by Pan_Yan (Unemployed people should forfeit their right to vote.)
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To: JLS
Rudy may be a special case. But notice all those here fearing Clinton/Obama are fearing two sitting Senators. The last time a sitting Senator won the White House was 1960, they had to cheat to win that one and the previous time was, I don't know when but certainly before FDR or Hoover.

The only other sitting Senator ever to win was Harding. And if I may add, I think Obama is a flash in the pan. Every cycle there's some new, unheard of person who makes a splash at one of the conventions, and everyone starts bubbling about his wonderful future. Somehow, it never seems to come true.

You don't win a presidential nomination by giving one good speech at your party's national convention. You win it by hard, dedicated work, building alliances and raising money.

157 posted on 09/26/2004 4:47:56 PM PDT by Brandon
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To: Brandon
Reformed or recovering alcoholic is more accurate and Cheney was a hero from Desert Storm.

The President was the Governor of TEXAS and the son of a former President with a massive fund raising and name ID edge, not the former Mayor of a city most people in this country can't stand.

Get real. Just because you want it to happen does not mean it is possible.
158 posted on 09/26/2004 4:48:39 PM PDT by Jacvin
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To: JohnnyZ

Mondale was elected statewide three times and nationally once. GHWBush was elected nationally twice before he ran for Prez.
_________________________________________________

Actually you are wrong on both counts:

1. Mondale was APPOINTED Minnesota Attorney General, then APPOINTED Minnesota Senator when HHH ran for president. Thus while Mondale ran for REELECTION a few times he never was elected originally to a job where he had to fight and claw and learn about winning elections. Thus he was a terrible presidential candidate.

2. G.H.W. Bush never won a statewide election. Was VP candidate which is like being APPOINTED VP. He won his first time on his own accord base in part on the good will Reagan built up just as the good will Clinton built up was almost enough to get a slug like algore elected. And we saw what seasoned politician G.H.W. Bush was when he ran for reelection.

I know you can argue you are technically right on both, but to my view neither were seasoned enough to head a national ticket and it showed.


159 posted on 09/26/2004 4:49:03 PM PDT by JLS
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To: toomanygrasshoppers
Any other FReepers have comments on Tancredo?

1. No sitting member of the House has ever won the presidency. I don't think one has ever even been nominated, but I may be wrong on that.

2. Single-issue candidacies go nowhere. Trancredo would have to broaden his message considerably before he'd have much of a chance.

160 posted on 09/26/2004 4:50:42 PM PDT by Brandon
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