FOX News Poll: Bush 46, Kerry 42, Nader 1

FOX News ^ | Sept. 23, 2004 | Dana Blanton

[comebacknewt]

Looking at the internals, it appears that Opinion Dynamics is weighting their sample to basically reflect a 39-D, 35-R, 26-I turnout model.

All the polls that use that weighting show a 3-4 point (roughly) Bush lead at the moment. The ones that do not use weightings, show W up by roughly 8 - 14 points.

It will be interesting to see if this disparity holds up or if the numbers will start to converge as we get closer to election day.

[Khaosai]

This looks about right to me - 46B-42K-1N -

We are currently up between 4 and 6pts nationally -

Many key States are moving away from Kerry (WI,IA, NV,CO,FL, OH) - But most of these States will still be somewhat close on election day (GWB wins of 2 to 6pts).

We are sitting fine right now. Less than 50 days from an election and Kerry has much ground to make up.

Bottom-line still is and always has been turnout, turnout, turnout in about half-dozen States will decide this election.

I don't see Nader's numbers increasing as the election nears. We don't need them to and I don't think he will get more than 1.8% nationally.

[Khaosai]

Looking at the internals, it appears that Opinion Dynamics is weighting their sample to basically reflect a 39-D, 35-R, 26-I turnout model. All the polls that use that weighting show a 3-4 point (roughly) Bush lead at the moment. The ones that do not use weightings, show W up by roughly 8 - 14 points. It will be interesting to see if this disparity holds up or if the numbers will start to converge as we get closer to election day.

Very true. It will be interesting to see what the breakdown of voter registration is after the election this year. I think we will have a very high voter turnout, all the way around.

My guess is it will look like 40D-37R-23I

[jern]

Kerry receives some of his strongest support from young voters (57 percent), non-whites (62 percent), and those living in the West (49 percent). Does anyone know what Gore's "non white" number was in 2000?

[edwin hubble]

"Kerry has NOT broken 42%."

Clinton didn't break 43% in 1992
and he never got a majority in 1996.

[StAnDeliver]

"As an incumbent in War time with Unemployment at 5.4% Bush ought to be in the high 50s low 60s"

Since when! The MSM resorts to blatant criminal fraud against a sitting wartime President, and he's still +6. I'd say that's peachy!

Nixon '72 is the only time the MSM, since the advent of evening snooz, was roundly ignored in a hot war, and that's because (a) McGovern was a blundering Trotskyite; and (b) Dick's Law-and-Order message resonated big-time with people who had paid out the ass for college tuition only to find out on TV that Junior was skipping classes at Big State and getting stirred up by Fonda and Kerry!

Karma is a beautiful thing. The impending Bush '04 landslide will prove to be the MSM's permanent downfall.

[comebacknewt]

My guess is it will look like 40D-37R-23I

Looks good to me. Applying breakdown to this poll would give Bush a 47.0 - 41.8 lead and would likely mean an electoral landslide.

[finnman69]

I wonder if the DUmmies are liking this Fox poll as much as this one: http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/082604_poll.pdf

[Names Ash Housewares]

"I am not at all optimistic about the future of what used to be a Republic"

Then we try harder. Republicans control the house, the senate, the white house, majority of the governorships. Republicans appoint Supreme Court judges that actually interpret the law not invent it. That is NO small accomplishment. We can keep that ball rolling. The internet is giving us a stronger voice. Look at CBS humiliatad! The alphabet news channels are plummeting in viewership. More people watched the Republican convention then democrats. A first in a looong time! Zell Miller a democrat spoke! Amazing. We have new ways to fight the liberals, and Kerry gives us fresh ammo everday. Use it! Lets go for landslide. Campaign everday like its the day before election day and we are behind. Every day counts. One individual CAN make a difference. We know that now.

[Democrats hate too much]

"As an incumbent in War time with Unemployment at 5.4% Bush ought to be in the high 50s low 60s"


I've been looking at your previous posts this year. I'm wondering if you are really a Republican or just a Democrat pretending to be a Freeper who is trying to spread disappointment.

Reply back to me with BS about how you've helped volunteer for Bush this year to try and look like a Republican. I won't believe it.

[EGPWS]

(I'm sure to be in the FR minority in thinking that Kerry's campaign has improved in the last few weeks, since taking on the Clintonistas. Of course, his campaign was so bad he only had one direction to go.)

You are in the minority, and I might add, IMO you are wrong.

However it doesn't matter, for Kerry has already laid the DNC political bed and they have no choice but to lay in it.

Time IS a pertinent and eternal factor and Kerry has overlooked that simple and understandable factor and augmented by his promotion of political deceit placed upon him by his lack of conviction and political direction, because of concern of voter descent, because of such conviction, it can only lead him to a lack of political direction that is not enticing to the public to promote the want to vote for him.

[franklog]

I've been to DU, and I can say with confidence that they can't spell well enough to forge. Of course, if the next set of forgeries contains a lot of "F" words, all bets are off.

[Khaosai]

Looks good to me. Applying breakdown to this poll would give Bush a 47.0 - 41.8 lead and would likely mean an electoral landslide.

Agree there could be a close to EV landslide for GWB. The State maps are really trending our way right now.

Kerry my guess is moving his focus to FL instead of OH as his major "switch" State - His un-patriotic rehtoric won't fly in the State of OH -

I really do think we will close the 4pt gap that existed in 2000 (39D-35R). To at least down to a 3pt to 3.5pt gap.

[Khaosai]

Looks good to me. Applying breakdown to this poll would give Bush a 47.0 - 41.8 lead and would likely mean an electoral landslide.

Agree there could be a close to EV landslide for GWB. The State maps are really trending our way right now.

Kerry my guess is moving his focus to FL instead of OH as his major "switch" State - His unpatriotic rhetoric won't fly in the State of OH -

I really do think we will close the 4pt gap that existed in 2000 (39D-35R). To at least down to a 3pt to 3.5pt gap.

[lnbchip]

But remember the third-party Perot factor cut into the Republican vote and allowed Clinton to survive these elections with such low numbers.

[jveritas]

Foxnews polls always have a high number of undecided.

[uncbob]

November 2nd = a Bush landslide.

I will be more than happy to have been unduly pessimistic

[uncbob]

eply back to me with BS about how you've helped volunteer for Bush this year to try and look like a Republican. I won't believe it.

Been on this site a lot longer than you hoss

I call em as I see them

I was here in 2000 ( when you wasn't) and remember all the giddyness as Bush was ahead in ALL the polls up to election day

Election Night was a SHOCK

[uncbob]

Nixon '72 is the only time the MSM, since the advent of evening snooz, was roundly ignored in a hot war,

Well supposedly the American public has become a LOT more disenchanted with the MSN since then
So their influence should have waned considerably and therefore Bush should be a lot higher in the polls
I see no signs the American public is getting any smarter
A creep and nut job like Gore won the popular vote and add in the votes Nader got and it shows what a sorry state this nation is in

[RockinRight]

Keep the faith. I still think we're on our way to a 42-state landslide.