[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

The internals don't mirror the actual registration numbers in Maryland, which means SUSA is not weighing by party.

http://www.elections.state.md.us/pdf/March2004.pdf

According to the March 2000 figures the breakdown is as follows (note numbers = 101.1% because of rounding):

55.8% D
29.9% R
14.4% I/O

If you weigh the results, Kerry would have a decent-sized lead. (I don't have time to do the weighing).

However, even if you don't weigh, Kerry's lead has been eroded in Maryland since SUSA's methodology remained the same.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

If you do re-weigh for party affiliation, Kerry has a 10-12 point lead in Maryland.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"According to the March 2000 figures the breakdown is as follows (note numbers = 101.1% because of rounding):

55.8% D
29.9% R
14.4% I/O"

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I assume that those numbers are for party registration, not for party identification (which was likely the poll question). And even if the poll question referred to party registration, this is a likely voter poll, and registered Republicans in MD are much more likely to vote than registered Democrats (especially since motor voter has resulted in just about every citizen 18 and over being a registered voter).

It would be interested to see exit polling date for the 2002 MD elections to see what is the party breakdown for actual voters in the state.

[Congressman Billybob]

When you know Maryland politics, as I do, you know a dirty little secret about registration there. A significant number of Republicans register as Democrats so they get to vote in the Democrat primaries. Since the ultimate winner in Maryland ordinarily comes out of the Democrat primary, that's the only REAL vote to cast in most elections.

That "cross-over" registration applies to maybe 10% of the Maryland electorate. I know, I was one of them for a few years. If the poll asked people "How do you identify yourself?" rather than "How are you registered?", the party split is about right.

Congressman Billybob