Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
The Wall South is underwater after a good rain!
But Aragon doesn't surprise me at all...it is downhill from the Wall South.
I heard about a tornado on 9th avenue hope that McGuire's is ok. Gotta keep Martin in place there!
I'm still wondering about Santa Rosa but it is probably just minor stuff and utility outages. Heck, the electricity isn't reliable during the best of times let alone the storms.
It kinda sux to try to track this from afar, doesn't it?
You're right - food, rest, even a shower is of the utmost importance right now.
Will she consider taking herself and the kids to the nearest ER to get checked out, or wait until she gets to you?
If today is the first time she cried (to you at least) you did a remarkable job of raising a remarkable young woman, who obviously takes after her resourceful Mom.
How's your husband doing, I remember you commenting about him needing some cheering up earlier in the week?
Yes, somebody said it on the radio this morning. Might have been a joke.
You and your beautiful family have been in my prayers.
Thanks for the updates.
You have a beautiful family. I'm praying you see them soon. Please keep us posted.
...getting out of city living. That's my goal, too, someday.
Me too, I'm in the desert.
Reuters captions say the bridge carrying I-10 is ruined "on both ends"
Husband is doing fine.
He's a medical doctor
and I know she wants him
to tend to them...
I was half joking the other day
when I said he needed the cheering up.
His practice is in psychiatry... and I
have been keeping him busy tending to me!
Well, I'm literally still here in my pajamas :) and I have to go to work. I will be praying for all of you today.
Take care.
Bless your heart.
Thank you so much.
I am humbled by the good thoughts and prayers
from so many FRiends here.
My FR mail extends page after page,
and I am trying to respond to each one.
Other than my summers in Florida, it took me 43 years to get out of city living!
Me, too. We get excited when the sky gets cloudy. :)
Is that bridge pic in Pensacola?
I remember your saying he is a Doctor - but wasn't thinking about that when I posted. My immediate thoughts were about the bites you described on the baby and all thought of your husband's professional credentials kind off went by the wayside.
What can I say, I'm a mom too!!!
Either your husband is doing a great job tending to you, or you are a very strong woman. The way you have managed this has been heroic. Your daughter may be a grown woman, but she is still your little girl and you will do anything to take care of her. God Bless you all.
TWC has first beach pics....
Highway 98 is literally washed away, not merely underwater, on Fort Walton Beach.
God bless you too.
I have written a FR mail to you.
I'm nosy... :)
Yes, two pictures from Pensacola.
Holy sh!t.
That water is perhaps 30-40 feet higher than normal. I've been a regular commuter on that bridge. The implications are enormous.
Yes, this is hugh. Extremely series. There are no suitable alternate east-west routes. This effectively cuts off Pensacola from the east until it is repaired
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