Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
They might. I think dad's vet is from Alabama and I know he got a couple of the horses from someone else and his two became eight. I'll have to ask him. :)
I think the next time dad hears the words, "Hurricane comin' " he'll be better prepared. I think he assumed because he was further inland he'd fare better.
The floor between the third and fourth stories in a commercial building would be about 30 feet above finish grade. I suspect some areas saw waves higher than that. One source reported than an offshore bouy had recorded a 50 foot wave. I believe that would be all inclusive, surge plus tide, plus wave tops.
What part of P-cola are they in? Trying to get info for the west side, but nothing so far. Has anyone been able to access the message boards on pensacolanewsjournal.com? I sometimes can get to the first page, but that's about it. So glad to hear your family is ok!
If you get anything specific about Summerdale, Robertsdale or Foley, please ping me. My sister's house is just outside Summerdale and I think they got a direct hit from the storm but they fled so we have no damage assessment yet.
If you get anything specific about Summerdale, Robertsdale or Foley, please ping me. My sister's house is just outside Summerdale and I think they got a direct hit from the storm but they fled so we have no damage assessment yet.
Are you going to be able to get to FT. Lauderdale to meet her? I just know you can't wait to wrap your arms around them all.
Thank you for keep us all up to date. Even my husband, who rarely posts here, has been asking me every evening if you have given us an up date.
A personal welcome to Free Republic. You have been most outstanding in your replies and have earned my respect.
That is rather unusual for people who have recently become Freepers.
Welcome friend!
Will do... as soon as I know she's on that plane.
I think I know some of what you might want to tell me...
the guy was most concerned about her signing a promissary
note... and of COURSE SHE'LL SIGN, and we will pay for
the flight regardless of the cost.
The boards aren't working for me either.
Four hospitals damaged... I did hear that the hospital at NAS Pensacola suffered the most damage of the four.
Lousy day to be out fishing. ;)
I'm reading messages in the forum right now.
My dad didn't have room to store his horse trailer or my step-mom's car. They were stored at someone else's place where it was more secure.
I grew up spending much of my time at my grandparent's dairy farm in WI. This thread is making me nostalgic for my childhood (barns and Ft. Walton and all).
We weren't in FLA long enough to go through what everybody is going through now. I might feel differently if I'd lived through any one of the hurricanes that have hit all of you over the years.
That can't be good. You can see the NAS Hosp from my front yard. Thank you for info.
Pensacola beach probably took the brunt of the storm.
I'm going to go out onto a limb here, and suggest that most of the surge damage, typically the worst, will be confined to the state of Florida. I don't have city and road data for Alabama handy, but if Gulf Breeze really is "40 miles west of P'cola" as reported by P'cola News Journal, then that area endured 115 to 120 mph sustained winds, primarily running east to west, and not near as much surge damage.
With sustained winds below 120 mph, I think (hope) you will see widespread major damage confined to the surge area, which was primarily confined to the coastline from the border over to Navarre, and then more localized damage where isolated gusts exceeded 135 to 140 mph.
I'm not familiar with Florida or Alabama coastal building codes, but many mobile home manufacturers work to 40 pound per square foot wind loads or lower, which makes them susceptible to failure at around 100 mph.
Okay, now I'm not reading them, lol. Tried to go to a new folder and got internal server error.
No, we are trying to book them into a hotel for the night,
and worry sbout getting them to San Diego the following day (Friday) --- they have not had showers for a week,
and a good night's rest and a hot meal are more important
than anything else right now.
We'll get her here sometime on Friday, IF she gets to Ft.
Lauderdale this afternoon/evening.
This is all so iffy --- we've had so many disappointments.
When I told her the Delta flight was cancelled this morning,
it was the first time she has cried.
I just went back up through the thread to read about your daughter. Praying for her, the baby and you!
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