Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
updated graphic
Odd thing is that the computer models at weather underground seem to think this is going to go up to Tennessee and just meander. One has it looping back into Florida. Another looping the other way into Arkansas.
You folks inland had better watch out for flooding. This could get very interesting even after landfall.
Net control fears he's lost propagation?
Reports of numerous trees down in Ft. Walton beach.
Eye now back at 88 W and change.....
thanks
I hope that you two left long ago and are safe. Check in as soon as you can.
thanks commish
!!!?
Why would anyone think that it is okay to make that place a shelter when it is that close to the water. What were they thinking?
Is Ivan coming in at a Category 4?
Of course. Jim "Disaster Magnet" Cantore is there. I hope all stay safe there.
At this time, yes.
I will repeat my previous reply:
As I said, this method has never been published. Actually, for a rather simple reason: How do you publish something than can only be viewed in 3D?
I could use photo-shop and draw lines to show exactly what I am looking at. However, I have no idea how to post that graphic on FR, since I do not have a website.
This was discovered about 15 years ago, when I was exploring methods to convert GOES satellite images into 3D. By assigning specific IR temperatures to altitudes, it was possible to create a synthetic 3D image.
Once these 3D images were animated, a rather curious "wall" was discovered to always be leading the hurricane.
Locate the "wall" that is leading the hurricane and you will know exactly where it will move next.
Once again, I am officially designating that the center of the eye will pass between Pensacolla and Ft. Walton Beach. The city of Gulf Breeze will definitely be in the center of the eye.
35 MPH sustained, gusts to 65, trees falling in his yard, he signed off.
Thanks. Just curious here on the west coast. Prayers for all.
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