Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Thank God she got away. Wow, Onyx, you've been through it these past few weeks. ((((((((Onyx))))))))
Damit, why was I that far off?
Next time, I will do better.
Show her your post to me.
Surely she will go along with you?
You have endured more than most folks.
She must be ready to leave too?
Start tracking "Jean." :)
Thank God your daughter's coming home. I hope you have a WONDERFUL reunion. I'm toasting my glass of red wine to you and her right now! God bless you and your family.
Good night.
As a avid scuba diver, I have always wanted to go diving in the Cayman Islands. From what I have read tonight (from multiple sources), I will never visit that island.
Cozumel Mexico, here I come next February.
Nite to you too. I've had enough for one day also.
Be safe, you're already brave.
And show her your comment to me.
Ohio here you come!
South Carolina at this moment.....
Oh, my good Lord, onyx. I had no idea your daughter was in such a situation. I'm adding them to my prayers. She must be terrified, and I'm sure you are, too.
If you have coordinates for official landfall, I can fine that distance up for you.
Also if I can get any anecdotal surge data, I can plot normal versus surge coastlines using Digital Elevation Models.
Why were you "so far off"? Well, we know about all there is to know about the physical properties of water, heat transfer, phase conditions, there's a pot of of water, about to boil, now pinpoint the location of the first bubble.
;-)
Too many variables, even for an array of processors. You know that. Earlier I was wondering about reactive forces, in this case and eye center shift to the east in response to increased wind resistance over land. In addition to the meteorological variables, you'd have to have both a DEM and a one meter plot of every physical projection, and your have to run the sim in realtime, inputting every change in the projections as the hurricane takes them down to maintain accuracy just to begin to approximate the effect.
You had it close enough, as close as we are likely to get it. Do you know where Snow predicted landfall?
"46.77 miles between Gulf Breeze and Gulf Shores."
Interesting. What software are you using?
Hey Magnolia.
Yes, she's had it.
She'll return when law and order is restored.
She has her property management business and
she needs to do all the insurance filings, but
for the time being, it is SAFETY first... hers
her children's.
I posted a couple of photos of them on my page,
taken about a month ago in happier times.
I need to sleep, but I'm HAPPY I saw your ping.
I think MS might be in for some rain?
Maybe Hunble can tell us?
For a while this afternoon, I was worried about
my 121 year old house when the hurricane was
supposed to hit around the mouth of the MS.
I'm certain we have FReepers who are in Ivan;s path.
Prayers for them.
Nite all.
And yes, the old "gut instinct" is still a valuable scientific instrument.
Hi Onyx,
I've been reading the Cayman message boards and wondering if your daughter would leave.
Evidently they're trying to evacuate all expats, and are moving Caymanians to the Brac and Little Cayman to stay with family, friends, or sometimes even strangers.
From what I've read, people are just "roaming" the streets because they have no place to go...not enough food and water, and very unsanitary conditions due to the sewage problem.
I'm glad your daughter's leaving.
I've been puzzled by the looting reports. The island was almost crime free when we lived there. It's hard to imagine that sort of thing.
Anyway, hope the flight gets out today.
P.S. How old are your grandkids???
Can you point me to a post describing your methods?
Last I heard, the public can get free time on ASCI Red if a need is demonstrated, but that was before 9/11. Odds are you'd have to go through a longer process for what you'd need to do.
Eglin's SRM is more useful than Mobile, going to hunt up some others and compare. Will post back if I find anything useful.
Still looking for any surge data, even SWAGs if anyone has them.
Uh, I was using the Mark-1 eyeball and some very poor satellite images.
As I keep telling people tonight, I was looking for the "wall" that is located around 50 miles in front of the hurricane's path. Locate the "wall" and you know where it will travel.
By profession, I am a Software Engineer. However, something like this would be impossible to teach a computer how to perform.
Those folks in the Cayman's need to know how to make backyard evaporation stills. A pit, some greenery, some sunshine, some clear visqueen, and a little bit of hose or tubing or ingenuity to get the condensation to funnel into a container can generate enough water to keep a person alive indefinitely, especially in humid post hurricane conditions.
Once these 3D images were animated, I soon recognized something rather unusual. In the direction of travel, there is a "wall" located about 50 miles ahead of of the eye.
Locate the "wall" and connect a line from the center of the hurricane eye and the center of this "wall". This line will point to where the hurricane will be located in the next 6 hours.
This is so subtle, that it is almost impossible to explain. However, once you have learned how to recognize the "wall", it almost becomes second nature.
The wall you are defining is solely a function of top heigth? Is there a corresponding minima or maxima in precip, or radial velocities? I think it could be done if you can ingest GOES or 88D data, but I am not a code guy.
Some software you need to have:
1. Search "Global Mapper" and d/l the free demo.
2. http://edcftp.cr.usgs.gov/pub/data/srtm/SRTM30/
There is a lot of useful data at this site, but to find all of it, you'll have to climb and descend the file tree. I know my way around and you can Freepmail me for specific questions.
3. Search "3DEM" or "3 DEM" for another useful program.
I use Global mapper for general overviews and advance prep, with the 90 meter per pixel SRTM DEM's, then once landfall becomes defined withing a degree or two, use the 30 meter per pixel SRTM DEM's with the 3DEM program to alter sea level. I'll capture a screenshot at normal sea level, plus 3 meters, plus 6 meters, and plus 9 meters, then superimpose the normals and the plusses using some simple photoshop manipulations.
Can't do that yet, because I don't have any surge data yet, but I'll post them when I get them.
You can also download political data, roads, cities, drainage systems, state and county boundaries in vector format too. Global Mapper will automatically line them up, and displays every filetype I've ever come across. 3DEM only works with DEMs and raster image overlays, but does a better job representing sea level changes.
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 56
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 16, 2004
the eye of Ivan crossed the coast around 0700z just west of Gulf
Shores Alabama as a category three hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson
hurricane scale. Best estimate of the initial intensity now is 100
knots and because Ivan is already inland...further weakening is
anticipated. However...since Ivan is so large and intense...it is
expected to bring hurricane force winds well inland...up to about
150 miles along its track.
The hurricane is moving toward the north or 010 degrees at 12 knots.
This general track is expected during the next day or two.
Thereafter....Ivan is expected to be blocked by a developing high
pressure system. Therefore...the official forecast shows Ivan
stalling near the southern Appalachians and slowly dissipating in
that area. Obviously this could be a major flood event over
portions of the southeastern U.S. In the coming days.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 16/0900z 30.9n 87.7w 100 kt
12hr VT 16/1800z 32.5n 87.2w 65 kt...inland
24hr VT 17/0600z 34.7n 86.2w 35 kt...inland
36hr VT 17/1800z 36.0n 85.0w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 18/0600z 37.5n 83.0w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 19/0600z 37.5n 83.0w 20 kt...inland
96hr VT 20/0600z 36.5n 83.0w 20 kt...dissipating
$$
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