Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
That is probably a better estimate but is still less than 50 miles!
Better for you to say you "LOVE tracking hurricanes."
Death and destruction are not things to LOVE.
You could try chasing tornadoes if you like that kind of thrill.
(:>)
..."(excerpt) God, I love hurricanes!...."
They are natures way of controlling the oceans temperature. Hurricanes act as a big heat pump by extracting the heat from the warm waters. Without them, the oceans would eventually get so hot, life could not exist in or near them. They also, recycle the moisture to the land.. water we need to live.
In the morning, when we see and hear the devastation drolled out by this necessary cycle of Mother Nature, we will all shed tears of sorrow and rise to offer whatever help we can. May God be merciful to the victims. Amen.
Anarchy always rules in an area that has no law enforcement. The same can be said of some of our own regions in the USA after a hurricane. My folks had to guard their home, armed, after Andrew hit.
I've heard 5-10K. Nobody really knows. Lots of Labor Day vacationers, no mass evacuation like we do today.
Did you see "Night Line" on what they're predicting for New Orleans, not for Hurricane Ivan, but for sometime in the future? Sounds much more dire than the 8.0 California is supposed to get.
a lot of the bodies were washed away. Nobody really knows.
The prisoners broke out of Northward 2 nights ago...
as though the island needed the professional criminals
added to the mix.
Does this person live in Hurricane Alley? I've lived through Andrew, Charley, Frances, several others ... I didn't enjoy any of 'em.
I just cannot bear to endure Nightline. :)
She got away, because she knew who they are...
they just took what they wanted and left.
I LOVE RESEARCHING HURRICANES.
--------------
I hope that your family will see tomorrow with minimal losses.
It is in times like these that we remember what the 2nd Amendment is all about. Society is comprised of many individuals. Almost by definition, the individual is always more important than a society.
IMHO, that person lives in a self-serving world.
I remain stunned by his cavalier comments.
Bless your heart, you're a survivor.
actually, i know what you mean ... i'm a journalist, and i'm from ohio, where i dealt with my share of tornadoes. chasing them was a thrill, for the news of it - to get the word out, not to exploit someone's misery.
GOOD.
Now your comment makes sense.
I was stunned by your first two.
My daughter has just lost everything but her life to Ivan.
Now the topic has moved toward the subject of looting.
Are you serious? Your daughter has already been looted tonight?
Thank you! (and you're a survivor, too, having to sweat about your daughter's situation) ... I'm wiped out; all these storms this past month have drained me. All three have impacted us, one way or the other. It's like we're under siege. I'm tired - I've had enough. Now, how do I tell my wife that I want to move to my beloved Ohio? :-)
With center of the eye making landfall at the eastern edge of Mobile Bay, the distance to Gulf Breeze shows 35.5 miles on my software.
Looks like the greatest storm surge and windflow perpendicular to the coastline is taking place now, from Paradise Beach (actually 7 miles west of the coastline due south of Paradise Beach) over to Navarre/Holley area (windfield drops below 100 mph), Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties. Pensacola Bay is feeling full effects of the surge, and the Gulf Breeze extension may be subject to breaching.
No, she lives on Grand Cayman Island.
It is anarchy there.
She was looted from the first day,
but was confronted by the machete wielding thugs
yesterday (during the day) when she went back to
what's left of her house to collect keep-sakes...
the children's baby photos etc.
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