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Hurricane Ivan -- Thursday 9/16 thread [Landfall!]
NWS/NHC, various | 9/16/2004

Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.

Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.

People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

$$




Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Tennessee; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneivan; ivan
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To: exhaustedmomma
Gonna rip their lips off, skin their hides, etc, as soon as the roads clear and I can cross 3 states and have at them!)

You must be talking about the parents of your Grandchild....that is the way I feel about my Sister's husband...lol

401 posted on 09/16/2004 12:13:30 AM PDT by AmericanMade1776 ((John Kerry is now in full retreat))
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To: Hunble; Tall_Texan; snapperjk
I've been switching back between the Eglin and Mobile radars...

At this time it appears that little, tiny Oyster Bay is smack dab in the middle of the eye, about four, five miles NW of Gulf Shores...

For some reason, the Elgin radar is still showing the best image of the eye...

402 posted on 09/16/2004 12:14:01 AM PDT by Ronzo (GOD alone is enough.)
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In the eye, "completely calm and barely a drizzle" said Gary Tuchman one minute ago.


403 posted on 09/16/2004 12:14:02 AM PDT by lainie
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To: Hunble

710am Mobile radio station just said at 2:12 that they had received the official word that the eyewall edge had reached land at Gulf Shores.


404 posted on 09/16/2004 12:14:20 AM PDT by rdl6989 (<fontface="Rather Not">)
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To: BurbankKarl

US purchases Louisiana Territory from Surrender Monkeys.

405 posted on 09/16/2004 12:14:26 AM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: lainie

Gotta love Gary LOL he's actually doing a pretty good job.


406 posted on 09/16/2004 12:14:57 AM PDT by jlasoon
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To: Tall_Texan
Be sure to try to call, even if you have heard that the power is out. The teleco CO's use battery backup and can keep the phones working without electric company. Although, if nursing home has in-house tele system (not direct wired), it reqiures local electirc to run. Another words, the phone is ringing but no one can hear it. God bless. Think positive, she'll be OK.
My 93 yro mom lives with my wife and me but we sent her to NH a week ago because of Ivan's threat to Tampa Bay. Keeping her up in NH until Nov. to be safe. Again, God Bless!
407 posted on 09/16/2004 12:16:03 AM PDT by snapperjk (If you are a terror to many, then beware of many.)
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To: JellyJam

Yes....I felt it was a dumb choice for my sister's family to stay, when they were only a four hour drive away from family , north of them. They are brand new home owners, nice home. I know they are safe, but still stupid to stay.


408 posted on 09/16/2004 12:16:18 AM PDT by AmericanMade1776 ((John Kerry is now in full retreat))
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To: AmericanMade1776

My mother use to love in Daphne. There is some hills and forests around there that will protect them a little bit.

A woman north of there was reporting that her roof was partially blown off.

It's just so sad to think of all the devastation. I remember driving through Alabama after Hurricane Frederic. My mother's condo had damage then but it seemed like every fifth tree was blown over.

Perdido Key says the main road is underwater and the winds have stripped the siding off the man's house. They just got a call from Loxley too (U.S. 59 & I-10) but he wasn't too helpful except saying it was "real bad".


409 posted on 09/16/2004 12:16:33 AM PDT by Tall_Texan (Let's REALLY Split The Country! (http://righteverytime3.blogspot.com))
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To: rdl6989

Channel 15 NBC affiliate in Mobile has gone off the air.


410 posted on 09/16/2004 12:16:50 AM PDT by rdl6989 (<fontface="Rather Not">)
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To: Conservababe

Was all that before FEMA got into the act?

Don't quote me on this, but I think Hurricane Hugo was FEMA's test run, and from what I hear, they didn't perform well. We were lucky because we were living in AF base housing at the time and for the most part the base weathered Hugo pretty well.

We ended up with 17 people staying with us-family, mobile home freinds and neighbors whose windows had blown out. But we all took care of each other and pooled all our food together afterward for huge bbq's. Made it a whole lot easier to get through when we all shared.


411 posted on 09/16/2004 12:17:30 AM PDT by DancingMyRainbow
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To: AmericanMade1776

I know what you mean. My wife's aunt and uncle have a new home and felt they would OK in their so-called "safe room." They could have been safer with family in Birmingham.


412 posted on 09/16/2004 12:18:47 AM PDT by JellyJam (Headline of the year: "The Painful Truth: All the World Terrorists Are Muslims!")
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To: Hunble
I honestly thought that was the answer. If the eye passes there... then which ever city comes first (I don't know which is first on the map) would see the calm first. Haven't heard of any calm yet.
413 posted on 09/16/2004 12:19:03 AM PDT by exhaustedmomma (Please, pray for my granddaughter in the Mobile, Al, area... they didn't leave.)
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To: Tall_Texan

be glad when it is over, for them...we are getting 50 to 70 mile an hour winds here in Columbus Georgia ..tomorrow.


414 posted on 09/16/2004 12:19:23 AM PDT by AmericanMade1776 ((John Kerry is now in full retreat))
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To: DancingMyRainbow

It must have been before FEMA...as I don't recall it even being mentioned when we went with our Mom to the shelters she organized and ran.


415 posted on 09/16/2004 12:20:13 AM PDT by Conservababe (Kerry, you said to "bring it on". The vets did. And now you threaten to sue them. Wimp!)
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To: JellyJam

Exactly!


416 posted on 09/16/2004 12:20:48 AM PDT by AmericanMade1776 ((John Kerry is now in full retreat))
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To: All; rdl6989
At this time, I will admit that my prediction was off by a few miles. Close, but not up to my own self-imposed standards.

Next time, I will strive to provide a much more accurate prediction.

However, when you compare my prediction against the official government hurricane path as of 9:14 PM CDT...

I kicked their butt!

417 posted on 09/16/2004 12:21:37 AM PDT by Hunble
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To: snapperjk

Yes, when I lived through Hurricane Alicia in 1983, we had telephone but no electricity. My friends nearby had electricity but no telephone. We "shared".

BTW, the nursing home has generators. They'd better.


418 posted on 09/16/2004 12:22:11 AM PDT by Tall_Texan (Let's REALLY Split The Country! (http://righteverytime3.blogspot.com))
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To: Conservababe

President Carter's 1979 executive order merged many of the separate disaster-related responsibilities into a new Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Among other agencies, FEMA absorbed: the Federal Insurance Administration, the National Fire Prevention and Control Administration, the National Weather Service Community Preparedness Program, the Federal Preparedness Agency of the General Services Administration and the Federal Disaster Assistance Administration activities from HUD. Civil defense responsibilities were also transferred to the new agency from the Defense Department's Defense Civil Preparedness Agency.


419 posted on 09/16/2004 12:22:36 AM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: exhaustedmomma
...."would see the calm first. Haven't heard of any calm yet...."

Eye is not all calm. It's sort of like a Cinnamon roll. Outer eye has gusty winds and they get less as you get to storms geometric center. Even then, you may not ever get a perfect calm in the eye exact center.
420 posted on 09/16/2004 12:23:06 AM PDT by snapperjk (If you are a terror to many, then beware of many.)
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