Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
Vote for Kerry and you get what you deserve.
01:12HRS CNN saying their live reporter (Gulf Shores)should be in eye within one-half hour.
what you need to do is FREEP the blogs on NOLA.com and pose those same questions!
Has anyone heard if the guard has been called out by any governor of the gulf states?
Every time I click over there they are reading a bulletin.
Any reports?
He's reporting it was much worse in Frances.
the guard was in New Orleans...but not too many...half are deployed in Iraq.
There are no reports coming back. Net control just read an estimated prediction of the storm's location, then back to silence.
God I hope not! Military people are humans also and I would hate to have them in danger tonight.
In the morning, then the guard can get involved. But not tonight!
Check out the info I posted on #276.
http://www.wkrg.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=WKRG/MGArticle/KRG_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031777977440
Two couples who had no transportation to leave. Doesn't say if they didn't have family or neighbors, but they had to be rescued. Shame, but they are lucky and were rescued.
How come Ivan will stall in eastern Tennessee for over a day?
Tornado Watch
Selma AL to Multry GA
Human? Well so are hospital workers, emts, police, firefighters etc. The guard should have been called out days ago to help in evacuation efforts.
It looks like the eyewall is at Gulf Shores or Palmetto Beach AL right now.
Members of the Louisiana National Guard patrol the French Quarter as Hurricane Ivan approaches the Gulf Coast Wednesday, Sept. 15, 2004 in New Orleans. Ivan is expected to make landfall east of New Orleans.
Maybe one has a firearm....
Louisiana Air National Guard Medic Staff Sgt. Kristi Deshotel (R) prepares medical supplies in an evacuation shelter in the New Orleans Superdome in advance of Hurricane Ivan September 15, 2004.
Why in hell do they not have firearms?
Are they only allowed to use spit-balls on looters?
You are right on. CNN just confirmed it at 01:24HRS
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