Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
God bless to you and your family,..prayers out..
I had them evacuate to Alabama a few days ago because I knew that if they waited they'd experience traffic jams and no hotels. Now they have hotels rooms off of ground level a hundred miles inland.
However, the house is only about 10 miles inland.
THanks..hopefully I will still have power in the morning. I am hoping that once we do lose power it won't be for long. ALl the lines in our Neighborhood are buried, and we are only 1/2-3/4 mile from the substation for this area of montgomery and are on the main line. To get power to the rest of East Montgomery they have to get that line back online, so I figure we should be the beneficiary of that.
I haven't yet heard anything about that specifically but I'll keep my ears open.
Eye is moving just to the east side of the bay, so surge should be around 10-12 feet instead fo the 15-20 Ft they were predicting.
Excellent Coverage so far of the entire Mobile bay area.
Thanks. Listening now and heard some callers in the area I'm hoping to hear from (Baldwin CO, AL). Sounds like they are getting a pounding.
Alabama River at Choctaw Bluff, AL
That could be a huge difference. I am listening online now to the WPMI stream.
I thought I heard one of them reporting 80 mph gusts through the city.
We just dodged the bullet twice,all our power lines are buried in my neighborhood,but the power just went off twice,but came back on both times within the minute. I hope we stay lucky!
If you stacked my knowledge of hurricane behavior next to yours, I'm certain it would look like a pea next to a pumkin. A very small pea.
I've been trying to watch/listen to stream/read it all too.
We're 2 miles off of Escambia Bay. The rain will hurt, probably find it's way in simply because the draininage isn't sufficient and there's really nowhere for it to go.
We are about as high in the area as one can get, that's the good news. What the winds will do to the trees and other debris will be the question.
Then there are the questions of tornados.
Overall, all bets are off. I don't have any expectations and it is frustrating to have to sit here and watch this online.
Here is a good river stage, flooding and precip forecast site...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/quickbrief.shtml
This is rather personal challenge and please excuse me if I sounded harsh in any way toward you.
By posting my final prediction at 9:14 PM CDT, I was in full understanding that it would be viewed by some outstanding meteorologists.
One of us will be correct tonight.....
5,4,3,2...
E E, CNN now reporting live from Pen. 00:42CDT
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