Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[alancarp]

[BurbankKarl]

pressure drop
Just as bird's chirp as though night were descending during a solar eclipse, a sure way to tell that Hurricane Ivan was bearing down on the region was the sound of howling dogs around dawn in Uptown New Orleans, a Cherokee Street resident said. Another symptom of the pressure drop associated with an impending cyclone: her sinuses began to ache, the Cherokee Street woman noted.

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Roof with a view?
Ronnie and Sally Weisler of Harahan visited the lakefront in New Orleans Wednesday morning to watch the water spray onto the road. The Weislers had no plans for a last-minute evacuation, and they said they always ride out hurricanes, but they said Ivan seemed more ominous than most.

“As many as I’ve been in, this one seems to have created a fear in people,” Sally Weisler said.

Still, they said they planned to watch the storm from the front porch of their one-story house in a neighborhood that is prone to flooding.

“I’m going to sit on my front porch, and I’m going to ride this puppy out,” Ronnie Weisler said. “I love bad weather. To me, it’s exciting.”

If conditions turn too bad, he said, “We got a ladder to get up on the roof.”

[michigander]

I can hardly wait...

[GOP_1900AD]

Southwest Pass weather recording station:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=burl1

Conditions at BURL1 as of
(1:00 pm CDT)
1800 GMT on 09/15/2004:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 55 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 67 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.38 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.17 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.8 °F

[hummingbird]

Quarter cams are boarded up.

[Gabz]

Dear God.

[BurbankKarl]

I can't believe they arent opening that. Okay, it had $80k in damage last time...but that isnt that much $$$ for saving people.

Unless they think it will collapse.

[agrace]

Good to hear. I was responding to posts 764 & 769 - what do you think?

[Types_with_Fist]

LO. Thanks for this info. I'm from the area and have heard "Southwest Pass" mentioned many times. I guess I've always thought of it as an island or something. But, thanks to FReepers here I now know it is a lighthouse and platform off the tip of Plaquemines Parish in the MS River delta. Hope it's still there tomorrow.

[mississippi red-neck]

I'm located about fifteen miles west of the Al& Miss line in George County about about 1/2 mile off hwy 98, 60 miles inland, just outside the city limits of the city of Lucedale [ loose dale ].

They have a curfew for the county and the City starting at 9 pm until it is lifted. Anyone having a problem with it have been asked to contact the George County Sheriff's office or the Lucedale police department.

Good Luck & Prayers for Everyone. MRN.

[GOP_1900AD]

DOH!

[Gabz]

And just what were they drinking?

I'm sorry, but some people just have no sense.

[IamConservative]

"Ain't nothing "waterproof" in Southeast Louisiana...:-)"

Frog's butt?

[Miztiki]

Can someone send me a link to the latest wind map? I don't even know for sure what they are called or where to find them. Thanks in advance!

[gopwinsin04]

Casa de Britney...

Anne 'Interview with the Vampire' Rice's house

[LadyPilgrim]

God Bless you Dear!
If you need to head north. Come on up! My home is open!
Pray for this thing to lessen in everything!
God Bless all, in it's path!

[PBRSTREETGANG]

My goodness, the Weislers are world-class idiots.

Sounds like Kerry should get down there, he's about to lose two more votes.

[gopwinsin04]

I think the Superdome might collapse in a not so strong wind! Then there is the flooding below..

[Types_with_Fist]

According to this radar ALL of Plaquemines Parish, including "Southwest Pass" is now in the red part of the storm.

[Truth666]

Ivan is approaching New Orleans, moving NW (320) during the past hour - BREAKING NEWS

and still we keep hearing that it is moving N !