Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

---

Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[spectre]

Thanks for posting the picture.

We checked out a weathered SHACK of a home there, 1525 sq feet with a canal leading out to the bay. They wanted $725,000 for it..last Sunday. AND since Opal, they can't get insurance, go figure.

sw

[JellyJam]

Tornadoes spawned by Hurricane Ivan kill 2 in Panama City area

PANAMA CITY, Fla. (AP) — Two people were killed Wednesday and others were trapped inside their damaged homes when tornadoes spawned by Hurricane Ivan touched down in three different parts of the city, authorities said.

Bay County sheriffs officials said one person was killed in a tornado that struck along a residential section of Panama City Beach that borders the Gulf of Mexico and the other person was killed in the city’s Allenton neighborhood.

“We have a report from a deputy that it looks like a war zone,” said sheriff’s spokeswoman Ruth Sasser.

[dennis1x]

i know we have the technology to sticky this to the top of "breaking"...it needs to be done.....landfall is in the beginning stages......cat 4 approaching major met area.....

[scab4faa]

streaming news online for ivan.


http://www.wwltv.com/cgi-bin/bi/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad

[AmericanMade1776]

It is...but we use the bag...Zatarains....the water is heating up now...we drop in a couple of lemons sliced, and teh Zatarains...

[commish]

Just got our first TS force gust in Montgomery --- 38 MPH on the ole Commish Windometer. Sustained are only around 15-20 tho.

[Ragtime Cowgirl]

Thanks for the thread, and the media / weather links.

 

Praying with you for everyone in the path of Ivan.

 

Prayer request for friends' parents living in Gulfport and Alabama.

 

__________________________________________

Thanks for the links, nwctwx.

Alabama Media

Alabama Broadcast Stations

Mobile

News Radio 710 WPMI-AM

NBC 15 : Close to Home (Mobile, Pensacola, Ft. Walton Beach)

CBS 5 WKRG (Mobile, Pensacola)

Mobile Police Scanner

al.com : Everything Alabama

Birmingham

ABC 33/40 : Alabama's News Leader

Mississippi Media

Biloxi

WLOX-TV - The News for South Mississippi

 

Hurricane Ivan Tracking Page (Updated 9/15 - Added many new links)
--Hurricane Ivan Image Timeline
--Local Media Links (AL, MS, LA)

[wardaddy]

I'm betting Forrest Gump's hometown.....Bayou La Batre.


we have a well known freeper there....he has a big spread and lots of dogs on his homepage....can't recall his name now.

[numberonepal]

Hold on tight. It's quite here in Atlanta.

[BurbankKarl]

2230zulu

Fort Walton Beach

Winds gusting to 18

[wardaddy]

Good lord...

[wardaddy]

Good lord...

[numberonepal]

I'm betting Forrest Gump's hometown.....Bayou La Batre.

You mean - Buy You A Battry

[wardaddy]

AM demands consolidation....for good reason.

[AmericanMade1776]

Power Outages Already Reported In Panhandle

POSTED: 6:08 pm EDT September 15, 2004
UPDATED: 6:09 pm EDT September 15, 2004

PENSACOLA, Fla. -- There are power outages already being reported in Florida's western Panhandle as Hurricane Ivan grinds toward the Gulf Coast.

Ivan is now about 120 miles south of the Alabama line and is expected to come ashore early tomorrow along the Alabama-Mississippi line.

But hurricane force winds are extending out 105 miles from the center of Ivan.

Gulf Power says it already has about 3,000 customers in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties without power.

The outages are scattered throughout the two-county area. http://www.local6.com/news/3734068/detail.html

[mikenola]

Hey my blog just got linked to by instapundit!

http://www.instapundit.com

[kacres]

Please keep this thread going. As I said on a earlier post my parents live in Niceville/Destin area. My dad (saminfl),will ping me on this thread to let me know if they make it through ok, thats if they lose their power. His laptop is charged. Also keeping pretty informed here.

[wardaddy]

I'm a Mississippi homeboy and survived Camille 12 miles from the beach as a 12 year old. I have kin all over the eastern shore of Mobile Bay.

I did my senior year at Fairhope HS and lived next to the Grand Hotel(Point Clear) at the old Luce house.

I vacation every summer between Ft Morgan road or Grayton or Seaside, Seagrove or Rosemary Beach.

I have lived the world over but hold that whole area close to my heart from nearly half a century of memories.

I pray for the best for everyone down there from Alligator Point to Morgan City and all in between.

and the natural beauty will take a hit too....beautiful white sand beaches, dunes and spanish oaks don't grow overnite.

[commish]

Excellent Ham site --

HURRICANE WATCH NET

[numberonepal]

This thread has been being changed at 2AM for a new day. I haven't heard anything about that changing tonight. If someone does post a new thread, there'll be a link to it.