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Posted on 09/11/2004 12:09:10 AM PDT by nwctwx
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Quick exit from Iraq is likely
September 20, 2004
BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST Advertisement
Inside the Bush administration policymaking apparatus, there is strong feeling that U.S. troops must leave Iraq next year. This determination is not predicated on success in implanting Iraqi democracy and internal stability. Rather, the officials are saying: Ready or not, here we go.
This prospective policy is based on Iraq's national elections in late January, but not predicated on ending the insurgency or reaching a national political settlement. Getting out of Iraq would end the neoconservative dream of building democracy in the Arab world. The United States would be content having saved the world from Saddam Hussein's quest for weapons of mass destruction.
The reality of hard decisions ahead is obscured by blather on both sides in a presidential campaign. Six weeks before the election, Bush cannot be expected to admit even the possibility of a quick withdrawal. Sen. John Kerry's political aides, still languishing in fantastic speculation about European troops to the rescue, do not even ponder a quick exit. But Kerry supporters with foreign policy experience speculate that if elected, their candidate would take the same escape route.
Whether Bush or Kerry is elected, the president or president-elect will have to sit down immediately with the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The military will tell the election winner there are insufficient U.S. forces in Iraq to wage effective war. That leaves three realistic options: Increase overall U.S. military strength to reinforce Iraq, stay with the present strength to continue the war, or get out.
Well-placed sources in the administration are confident Bush's decision will be to get out. They believe that is the recommendation of his national security team and would be the recommendation of second-term officials. An informed guess might have Condoleezza Rice as secretary of state, Paul Wolfowitz as defense secretary and Stephen Hadley as national security adviser. According to my sources, all would opt for a withdrawal.
Getting out now would not end expensive U.S. reconstruction of Iraq, and certainly would not stop the fighting. Without U.S. troops, the civil war cited as the worst-case outcome by the recently leaked National Intelligence Estimate would be a reality. It would then take a resolute president to stand aside while Iraqis battle it out.
The end product would be an imperfect Iraq, probably dominated by Shia Muslims seeking revenge over long oppression by the Sunni-controlled Baathist Party. The Kurds would remain in their current semi-autonomous state. Iraq would not be divided, reassuring neighboring countries -- especially Turkey -- that are apprehensive about ethnically divided nations.
This messy new Iraq is viewed by Bush officials as vastly preferable to Saddam's police state, threatening its neighbors and the West. In private, some officials believe the mistake was not in toppling Saddam but in staying there for nation building after the dictator was deposed.
Abandonment of building democracy in Iraq would be a terrible blow to the neoconservative dream. The Bush administration's drift from that idea is shown in restrained reaction to Russian President Vladimir Putin's seizure of power. While Bush officials would prefer a democratic Russia, they appreciate that Putin is determined to prevent his country from disintegrating as the Soviet Union did before it. A fragmented Russia, prey to terrorists, is not in the U.S. interest.
The Kerry campaign, realizing that its only hope is to attack Bush for his Iraq policy, is not equipped to make sober evaluations of Iraq. When I asked a Kerry political aide what his candidate would do in Iraq, he could do no better than repeat the old saw that help is on the way from European troops. Kerry's foreign policy advisers know there will be no release from that quarter.
In the Aug. 29 New York Times Magazine, columnist David Brooks wrote an article (''How to Reinvent the GOP'') that is regarded as a neo-con manifesto and not popular with other conservatives.
''We need to strengthen nation states,'' Brooks wrote, calling for ''a multilateral nation-building apparatus.'' To chastened Bush officials, that sounds like an invitation to repeat Iraq instead of making sure it never happens again.
http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak20.html
Good find. With Ramadan coming we may need to put our antennas back up to see what the talk is during this time period. Is there someone out there with the historic memory of terrorist attacks associated with Ramadan. I think last year's went by without incident.
There was a bunch of attacks in Arab countries during Ramadan last year IIRC. Ramadan was also the time the first new warnings about NYC, DC, LA came out last year. The first thread covers a good deal of the time if you are bored. ;)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1013726/posts
Thanks for the memories.
Just trying to catch up-any horrific updates?
We were in Stamford (CT) yesterday. There was a large handpainted sign pointing the way to the "Islamic Center" and requesting donations.
Most recent summary at post 1074. Other than my perception of sitting on pins and needles as we work thru the election window of potential attacks, things are relatively quiet.
re- Traveller- I didn't think he was sympathetic with the US- he was viewing the US perspective and the AQ perspective. He wasn't blatantly condemning the US for everything- like some of the other posters there.
COSTA RICA EYES SUSPECTS' TERROR LINKS
9/20/2004, 11:59 a.m. ET
By MARIANELA JIMENEZ
The Associated Press
SAN JOSE, Costa Rica (AP) — Two men believed to be of Arab origin tried to enter Costa Rica over the weekend using extremely well-crafted false documents, Immigration Director Marco Badilla said Monday.
"We cannot confirm that we are dealing with terrorists, but neither can we discount the possibility that they have some link to that type of group," he told the Associated Press.
Badilla said the men were expelled on Sunday on a flight to Honduras with a stop in El Salvador. They were supposedly headed to Canada, though it was unclear here if they had disembarked in any of those countries.
Badilla said the men were found to have Jordanian passports identifying them as Ismail Mohamad Nassar and Fawas Ne Meh Mousa. They had presented immigration officers with documents from Belgium and France identifying them as Maximilien O. Regout L.R.M and Sylvain Marcel Hurel Yannic.
"We classified them as presumed Jordanians because we did not trust any of the documents they carried, which were adulterated or false, but of very high qualify," Badilla said.
He said they had been quickly deported "for convenience, because we do not want to have people like that here" and in order to avoid the bother of a court case.
If they are detained in order to accuse them of using a false document, that's a slow judicial process," he said.
Badilla said the men told officials they had flown from Jordan to Spain on Sept. 5 and then went to Cuba, then to Guatemala. They said they purchased false passports there and then went by road to Honduras.
"I don't believe that version is reliable because the route is very complicated. What's more, they said they paid 1,000 dollars for the documents but they were very fine work. It can't be that they were charged that" relatively small amount, Badilla said.
He said he was also suspicious because they were "very calm, very cold," though he said they tried to bribe agents at the airport so that they could fly on to Canada using the false European documents.
He said officials had notified the U.S. governnment's FBI as well as the international police agency Interpol.
http://www.nj.com/newsflash/war/index.ssf?/base/international-3/1095696848141280.xml&storylist=njterror
May I ask who she is?
http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0904/halevi_israeli_victory.php3?printer_friendly
BTW, I'm having trouble getting these links to activate. What's the secret?
http://www.seastreak.com/SeaStreak/news_updates/index.htm
By request of the Secret Service, the Coast Guard will be closing the East River completely from 4- 6pm this evening.
Due to this closure and the potential for the closure to be earlier or later, it is undetermined what SeaStreak runs will operate.
SeaStreak will have a vessel positioned at E. 34th St. and Pier 11 for the Monmouth County run and at Pier 11 for the South Amboy run prior to the closure.* We will be priority boarding passengers (ticket books are required to be shown) and the vessels will depart immediately upon the opening.* Subsequent vessels will be boarded on a 'load and go' basis until we can return to a normal schedule.
We are sorry if this causes you any inconvenience but it is entirely out of our control.*
Preparing for this weeks UN meeting
Checking out the waters.
Sadly, news just breaking that one of the Aerican hostages was killed.
Hmmmm. Is that the norm?
That struck me as odd.
Today- around 11AM-noon- we were near Norwalk CT- close to CT metro rail, 95, and the LI Sound. At lease 6 separate helicopters were flying circularly over the area- for at least 45 minutes or so. We were at an office building, and a number of the workers came out to get a look. Some thought perhaps there was a major accident on 95 being monitored- but 95 was running just fine.
Any thoughts?
So sad and so horrible.
Note No. 1: Please click on the url to view graphics.
NOTE NO.2: THE FOLLOWING TEXT IS AN EXACT QUOTE:
http://internet-haganah.us/harchives/002766.html
September 19, 2004
Another Gaza/Al Qaida connection
The interesting thing about this thread at the popular pro-Qaida forum Qal3ah is not the photos of a captured USMC surveillance drone...
No, it's the fact that the photos were uploaded to the Palestinian forum eyelash.ps:
1.
http://www.eyelash.ps/upload/pic/r1278985015.jpg
2.
http://www.eyelash.ps/upload/pic/r2935683455.jpg
Posted by aaron at September 19, 2004 01:52 PM
Database of jihad sites
Arabic forums anticipating mega- attacks soon...
So are the Feds.
In fact, there is a frenzy of activity taking place right now in order to thwart these guys.
However, it might not be possible to stop them in time.
((You have mail))
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